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["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 2, Page 379-411, June 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nFemale labor force participation rates have been stagnating despite rising female education in sub‐Saharan Africa since the turn of the millennium. Using representative and repeated census data from a heterogeneous sample of 13 sub‐Saharan African countries, this paper analyzes female labor force participation from a demographic perspective. We show that enrollment in education is substantially higher among the most recent female cohorts than among the earlier‐born ones. The higher enrollment mechanically depresses female labor force participation, weakening the relationship between female labor force participation and education. After taking this cohort trend into account, we find a strong and positive association between female labor force participation and female education. We further find a cohort trend toward higher female employment in the nonprimary sector and a positive association between female employment in the nonprimary sector and female education. The higher investments in education by younger female cohorts, together with the demographics of sub‐Saharan African countries, have implications for a potentially arising “demographic dividend”.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 2, Page 505-543, June 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nIntimate partner violence (IPV) is a major health and social issue that affects around 30 percent of women globally. This study investigates the relationships through which witnessing IPV in adolescence may impact the labor force participation and employment prospects of women in early adulthood, using a unique dataset from Bihar (India), which surveyed youth (primarily girls) in adolescence and again nine years later. The study examined the relationship between exposure to IPV and labor market outcomes among young women, including intermediate factors likely to influence their employment prospects, such as educational attainment, self‐efficacy, mental health, and soft skills. Witnessing IPV as an adolescent had a negative effect on educational attainment, mental health, and social and behavioral aspects of young women almost nine years later. IPV was not associated with the likelihood of paid employment or participation in skilled work among women, although it was associated with higher levels of labor force participation. These findings suggest that witnessing IPV should be considered one of multiple forms of violence that may expose young women to longer term vulnerability related to poorer educational and employment prospects, mental health, and social networks, with implications for economic and social development far beyond the family.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 2, Page 475-503, June 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nThis paper examines the effect of maternal education on child mortality in Bangladesh by exploiting quasi‐experimental variations in the duration of exposure to a school stipend project for identification. Results from the instrumental variable estimation indicate that an additional year of maternal schooling reduces both under‐five and infant mortality by about 20 percent. The findings are statistically significant and robust to a number of model specifications, including survival models controlling for right censoring of child mortality. Analysis of potential mechanisms suggests that maternal education reduces child mortality through greater wealth and literacy, positive assortative mating, lower fertility, delayed marriage and childbearing, greater health‐related knowledge, better health‐seeking behaviors, and female empowerment, but not through female employment.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 2, Page 331-377, June 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nWomen's property ownership matters for their well‐being and agency, broader economic prosperity, and children's development. However, until recently, a lack of data has constrained further exploration of gender differences in property ownership in the developing world. Using data from 41 developing countries, this paper contributes to the literature by investigating gender gaps in the incidence of property ownership among couples and the factors associated with these gaps, focusing on the role of legal systems. We find that in almost all countries, husbands are more likely to own property than wives. Across countries in our sample, husbands are, on average, 2.7 times more like than wives to own property alone and 1.4 times more likely to own property alone or jointly. Within countries, gender gaps in the incidence of property ownership are most pronounced for disadvantaged groups, that is, the rural population and the poorest quintile. These gender gaps reflect a variety of factors, including discriminatory laws with respect to inheritance, property ownership, marital regimes, and laws that protect from workplace discrimination. Countries with more gender egalitarian legal regimes have higher levels of property ownership by married women, especially housing, suggesting that legal reforms are a potential mechanism to increase women's property ownership.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 2, Page 579-612, June 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nThis paper analyzes the impact of pronatalist rhetoric on women's fertility preferences in Turkey using a mixed‐methods approach. Since 2008, Prime Minister (and since 2014 President) Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has given speeches about the necessity of increasing fertility and has demanded at least three children from families. This call was supported by monetary incentives in 2015. I analyze the impact of the rhetoric on women's fertility preferences between 2008 and 2013. In the first part of the paper, I use qualitative data I collected through in‐depth interviews in 2013 to show a relationship between women's political orientation and their acceptance of the rhetoric. Then, using quantitative data from the 2008 and 2013 rounds of the Turkey Demographic and Health Surveys, I analyze whether the pronatalist rhetoric had an independent effect on increasing fertility preferences. An individual‐level religiosity variable is used as a proxy to account for women's responsiveness to the rhetoric. I find that religiosity was positively related to women's desire to have a third child in both 2008 and 2013, but it was statistically significant only in 2013 after the rhetoric had been widely circulated in the media.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 2, Page 279-302, June 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nEstimating excess mortality is challenging. The metric depends on the expected mortality level, which can differ based on given choices, such as the method and the time series length used to estimate the baseline. However, these choices are often arbitrary, and are not subject to any sensitivity analysis. We bring to light the importance of carefully choosing the inputs and methods used to estimate excess mortality. Drawing on data from 26 countries, we investigate how sensitive excess mortality is to the choice of the mortality index, the number of years included in the reference period, the method, and the time unit of the death series. We employ two mortality indices, three reference periods, two data time units, and four methods for estimating the baseline. We show that excess mortality estimates can vary substantially when these factors are changed, and that the largest variations stem from the choice of the mortality index and the method. We also find that the magnitude of the variation in excess mortality is country‐specific, resulting in cross‐country rankings changes. Finally, based on our findings, we provide guidelines for estimating excess mortality.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 2, Page 445-474, June 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nIndian women's labor force participation rates have long demonstrated a U‐shaped relationship with their education, rather than a more conventional positive linear relationship. The low rates of employment for moderately educated women are usually explained either as a result of the cultural stigma of women's employment in a patriarchal society or because of the lack of demand from white‐collar and light manufacturing jobs for women with middle levels of education. Using especially well‐suited data from two waves of the India Human Development Survey, we test these explanations by examining the education–employment relationship in districts with low cultural stigma (low observance of purdah) and high proportions of (salaried) employment considered “suitable” for women. We find little support for either the cultural or structural explanations: the education–employment relationship remains U‐shaped in districts with low stigma or with more “suitable” salaried employment. Instead, we suggest a better explanation lies in the high levels of gender segregation where most white‐collar jobs are reserved for men. We simulate what the education–employment relationship would look like if these white‐collar occupations were female‐dominated as they are in most places in the world and find a more conventional linear relationship.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 2, Page 545-578, June 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nFollowing the homeostatic principle in demography and the notion of a sex ratio transition, I propose a self‐corrective mechanism to describe the dynamics of regional sex ratios in China. The mechanism consists of two pathways: (1) internal migration redistributes men and women across regions in a way that reduces highly skewed regional sex ratios at prime marriageable ages (SRM); and (2) a competitive marriage market for men reduces parental incentives for son‐biased sex selection, thus lowering sex ratios at birth (SRB). The mechanism suggests several hypotheses about the dynamics between regional SRBs and SRMs. I test these hypotheses using prefecture‐level sex ratios in four Chinese population censuses from 1982 to 2010. I use regression analyses that control for prefectural demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Results show that prefectures with higher SRBs in 1982 and 1990 experienced a greater decline in sex ratios of residents when the birth cohort reached marriageable ages in 2000 and 2010, respectively, resulting in a weak correlation between SRBs and subsequent SRMs in the same prefecture. Prefectural SRBs in 2000 and 2010 were negatively correlated with contemporary SRMs—a one‐unit higher prefectural SRM was associated with an approximately 0.3‐unit lower SRB in 2000 and 0.2‐unit lower SRB in 2010. Changes in prefectural SRBs between 1990 and 2010 are negatively correlated with changes in SRMs during the same period. The empirical findings are consistent with the implications of the proposed self‐corrective mechanism, suggesting that sex ratios may be subject to homeostatic forces within the population system.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 2, Page 413-443, June 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nIn the context of broad increases in gender equality and growing socioeconomic disparities along multiple dimensions of family life, we examine changes in within‐family earnings equality following parenthood and the extent to which they have played out differently by education. Our analysis relies on links between rich surveys and administrative tax records that provide high‐quality earnings data for husbands and wives spanning two years before and up to 10 years following first births from the 1980s to the 2000s in the United States (Survey of Income and Program Participation Synthetic Beta files; N = 21,300 couples and 194,100 couple‐years). Accounting for time‐invariant couple characteristics and year and age fixed effects, we find that wives’ share of total couple earnings declines substantially after parenthood and remains lower over the observation window, irrespective of cohort and education. Cohort changes in within‐family earnings equality are modest and concentrated among the earliest cohort of parents, and data provide little evidence of differential change by education. These findings have implications for women's economic vulnerability, particularly in the United States where divorce remains common and public support for families is weak.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 2, Page 303-330, June 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nFamily formation patterns in the postindustrial world have changed markedly in the past several decades. Fertility rates have declined, cohabitation rates have increased, age at marriage has gone up, and nonmarital childbearing has become more common in most postindustrial settings. A dominant theoretical explanation for these changes is second demographic transition (SDT) theory, which posits widespread value change towards individualism and postmaterialist concerns. In contrast, gender equity theory emphasizes structural changes, including women's increased participation in the public sphere and the resulting incompatibility of women's domestic and public roles given the slower adaptation on the part of families and institutions to adapt to women's new roles. We test the predictions of these two theoretical frameworks by analyzing fertility decline in 27 European societies. We find evolving gender egalitarianism, measured by the prevalence of gender‐egalitarian attitudes, to have greater explanatory power than SDT‐related ideational changes. The gender equity framework is particularly relevant in explaining the recent fertility trajectories of Central, Eastern, and Southern European countries.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nWhy is maternal employment higher in rural than in urban India? Among the relevant supply‐side factors, previous research has emphasized that rural work is more compatible with childcare. Results from the Indian Time Use Survey of 2019 show that hours of active maternal childcare are only slightly lower in rural areas, but the temporal and spatial flexibility of paid employment is much greater, making it easier for mothers to accommodate childcare responsibilities. In particular, rural women's work affords them greater access to flexible hours and the ability to work in close proximity to the home. Consequently, the negative effects of motherhood on employment are significantly greater for urban women than for rural women. This finding cannot be explained by rural–urban differences in household structure or resource constraints. These results redirect attention from average levels of time use towards a more nuanced analysis of sequence, timing, and opportunities for joint production or multitasking.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThis study examines how population aging shapes a crucial aspect of mental health and social well‐being: loneliness. Drawing on theories of demographic metabolism, United Nations population estimates and projections, and survey data covering approximately 50 percent of the world's population aged 50 and above living in 27 countries, we estimate the role of population aging in shaping cross‐national differences in loneliness from 1990 to 2050. We used survey data to estimate the prevalence of late middle age and older adult loneliness by age and sex and then applied these rates to the evolving age and sex distributions of the populations. Our results highlight massive increases in loneliness at ages 50 and above with a tripling of the number of lonely adults in these age groups in our sample countries from 104.9 million in 1990 to 333.5 million in 2050, increasing variability across countries in the share of their populations composed of lonely adults 50 and above, and the feminization of global later life loneliness with an increasing share of lonely adults in these age ranges being women. These results illustrate the power of demographic modeling to advance our understanding of national profiles of mental health and social well‐being.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nIndia is one of the most rigidly stratified societies in the world, yet little is known about life expectancy disparities in the country. We provide direct estimates of social differences in life expectancy in India using survey data spanning two decades. We show that individuals from the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes have drastically and persistently lower life expectancies than high‐caste individuals (between 4.2–4.4 years for women and 6.1–7.0 years for men in 2013–2016). While Muslims had a modest life expectancy disadvantage compared to high castes in 1997–2000, this disadvantage has grown substantially over the past 20 years. Mortality disparities between marginalized and privileged social groups are present across the entire life‐course and are increasingly driven by older‐age mortality. Our findings reveal a pressing need for far greater attention to the health of marginalized populations in India.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThe literature on climate exposures and human migration has focused largely on assessing short‐term responses to temperature and precipitation shocks. In this paper, we suggest that this common coping strategies model can be extended to account for mechanisms that link environmental conditions to migration behavior over longer periods of time. We argue that early‐life climate exposures may affect the likelihood of migration from childhood through early adulthood by influencing parental migration, community migration networks, human capital development, and decisions about household resource allocation, all of which are correlates of geographic mobility. After developing this conceptual framework, we evaluate the corresponding hypotheses using a big data approach, analyzing 20 million individual georeferenced records from 81 censuses implemented across 31 countries in tropical Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. For each world region, we estimate regression models that predict lifetime migration (a change in residence between birth and ages 30–39) as a function of temperature and precipitation anomalies in early life, defined as the year prior to birth to age four. Results suggest that early‐life climate is systematically associated with changes in the probability of lifetime migration in most regions of the tropics, with the largest effects observed in sub‐Saharan Africa. In East and Southern Africa, the effects of temperature shocks vary by sex and educational attainment and in a manner that suggests women and those of lower socioeconomic status are most vulnerable. Finally, we compare our main results with models using alternative measures of climate exposures. This comparison suggests climate exposures during the prenatal period and first few years of life are particularly (but not exclusively) salient for lifetime migration, which is most consistent with the hypothesized human capital mechanism.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 1, Page 9-30, March 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nScientific ideas on the human population tend to be rooted in a “slow demography” paradigm, which emphasizes an inertial, predictable, self‐contained view of population dynamics, mostly dependent on fertility and mortality. Yet, demography can also move fast. At the country level, it is crucial to empirically assess how fast demography moves by taking migratory movements into account, in addition to fertility and mortality. We discuss these ideas and present new estimates of the speed of population change, that is, country‐level population turnover rates, as well as the share of turnover due to migration, for all countries in the world with available data between 1990 and 2020. Population turnover is inversely related to population size and development, and migratory movements tend to become important factors in shaping demography for both small and highly developed countries. Longitudinally, we analyze annual turnover data for Italy and Germany, documenting the changing speed of population change over time and its determinants. Accepting the “fast and slow” demography perspective has several implications for science and policy, which we discuss.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 1, Page 217-246, March 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nAs our societies transform into knowledge societies, skills are playing an ever‐increasing role in life. Despite recent efforts to consistently measure adult skills across countries, a challenge remains to understand how skills evolve over time and what the main drivers behind these changes are. By applying demographic methods to estimate the development of skills over the life course, this paper presents the reconstruction of empirical adult literacy test results along cohort lines by age, sex, and educational attainment for 44 countries for the period 1970–2015. Results suggest significant heterogeneity in the pattern of changes in literacy skills with age, reflecting the differential exposure to cognitive stimulation over the life course and suggesting that the development of skills in a country is also the consequence of a changing composition of its population. Gender, however, was found to have hardly any effect on how literacy skills evolve between the ages of 15 and 65. On the aggregate level, findings reveal considerable differences between countries—regarding both the level of skills and their development over time. Overall, it was found that massive educational expansions happening globally in the recent past only partly resulted in a corresponding rise in skills.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 1, Page 161-188, March 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nThis study explores gender preference for children in South Korea, where a strong, traditional son preference has recently shifted to a greater preference for daughters or no preference. Using data from the 2008 Panel Study on Korean Children (PSKC; N = 1,836) and 2012 Korean General Social Survey (KGSS; N = 1,355), we examined social and attitudinal correlates of child gender preference, including kinship patterns, perceived prospects for the future, and attitudes about the value of children, including potentially gendered expectations. Logistic regressions of child gender preference showed that mothers receiving support from maternal grandparents reported lower son preference (PSKC). Attitudes about both the instrumental (social, economic) and emotional value of children were also related to son preference. In the KGSS, individuals who preferred sons reported more traditional gender attitudes, positive future prospects, and greater expectations of help in old age and were more likely to be men, older, rural, or Buddhist. There were few differences between those who favored a daughter compared to no preference. Overall, the decline in son preference appears to reflect shifts in intergenerational relations and societal changes that have redefined the meaning and value of children in the context of economic uncertainties, very low fertility, and population aging.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 1, Page 189-215, March 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nThe relationship between levels of social and economic inequality and demographic changes remains poorly documented, particularly for fertility. Covering a period from 1986 to 2018, this paper documents a positive country‐level association between income inequality and the dispersion of first birth schedules among women from 88 countries of the Global South. This association is driven by a dual dynamic of the decreasing mean age at first birth among a shrinking group of women who transition to motherhood early, and the increasing mean age at first birth and rising heterogeneity in the timing of childbearing among a group of first birth delayers. We show that this association is strongest in countries where the total fertility rate is below 2.5 children per woman. We argue that differential opportunities for accessing quality education, formal labor markets, and migration are potential drivers of the rising heterogeneity in the ages at which women transition to childbearing. These results highlight the importance of examining societal and demographic processes jointly and clearly indicate that more and better‐quality data on social and economic inequality are needed.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 1, Page 51-73, March 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nNew estimates of economic flows by age combined with population projections show that in the coming decades (1) global GDP growth could be slower by about 1 percentage point per year, declining more sharply than population growth; (2) GDP will shift toward sub‐Saharan Africa more than population trends suggest; (3) living standards of working‐age adults may be squeezed by high spending on children and seniors; (4) changing population age distribution will raise living standards in many lower‐income nations; (5) changing economic life cycles will amplify the economic effects of population aging in many higher income economies; and (6) population aging will likely push public debt, private assets, and perhaps productivity higher. Population change will have profound implications for national, regional, and global economies.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 1, Page 31-50, March 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nTimely, high‐quality mortality data have allowed for assessments of the impact of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) on life expectancies in upper‐middle‐ and high‐income countries. Extant data, though imperfect, suggest that the bulk of the pandemic‐induced mortality might have occurred elsewhere. This article reports on changes in life expectancies around the world as far as they can be estimated from the evidence available at the end of 2021. The global life expectancy appears to have declined by 0.92 years between 2019 and 2020 and by another 0.72 years between 2020 and 2021, but the decline seems to have ended during the last quarter of 2021. Uncertainty about its exact size aside, this represents the first decline in global life expectancy since 1950, the first year for which a global estimate is available from the United Nations. Annual declines in life expectancy (from a 12‐month period to the next) appear to have exceeded two years at some point before the end of 2021 in at least 50 countries. Since 1950, annual declines of that magnitude had only been observed on rare occasions, such as Cambodia in the 1970s, Rwanda in the 1990s, and possibly some sub‐Saharan African nations at the peak of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) pandemic.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 1, Page 129-160, March 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nIn the German post‐reunification context dominated by economic uncertainty and structural change, this paper studies the effects of import shocks from China on the fertility decisions of individuals working in the German manufacturing sector between 1995 and 2016. While focusing on trade shocks related to Chinese imported goods, the paper explores individual fertility via the labor market outcomes of manufacturing workers, roughly a fifth of German employment. I investigate the gender‐specific effects of Chinese import competition on individual fertility and explain the channels mediating each of them. I find that globalization affects overall fertility negatively, but the effect is positive for women and negative for men. Results indicate a reduction in the employment opportunity of individuals, an increase in marginal employment and higher economic insecurity. There is a substitution effect in the labor supply of women, here prevalently concentrated in low‐technology sectors: as female earnings fall and their opportunity cost of work is lower, the prospect of having children possibly becomes a more rewarding alternative. Given concerns over low fertility in Germany, findings are particularly important for understanding the German social and economic structure that enabled the country's post‐reunification transformation but also allowed heavy labor market segmentation and atypical work.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 1, Page 97-128, March 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nThis paper studies long‐term trends and patterns in global refugee migration. We explore the intensity, spread, and distance of refugee migration at a global, regional, and country level between 1951 and 2018. The analysis did not detect a long‐term increase in the global intensity of refugee migration. Primarily depending on levels of conflict, refugee numbers have fluctuated at levels of between 0.1 and 0.3 percent of the world population. Apparent increases in numbers of the globally displaced are driven by the inclusion of populations and countries that were previously excluded from the data. While refugee populations continue to be concentrated in countries with low‐to‐medium income levels, the analysis reveals several geographic shifts in refugee migration. Refugees tend to come from a shrinking number of origin countries and move to an increasing variety of destination countries. This trend seems to reflect a concentration of recurrent conflict cycles in a relatively small number of countries and a parallel increase in the number of safe destinations. Although the vast majority of refugees remain near to origin countries, the average distance between origin and destination countries has increased over time, presumably linked to the greater ease of travel and migration‐facilitating networks.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 1, Page 75-96, March 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nThe impact of a large influx of refugees (or migrants) on the local labor market has long been an important topic among economists. In this study, we investigate the economic impact of the Venezuelan migrant inflow on labor market outcomes in Brazil. We employ the synthetic control method to exploit the concentration of a large inflow of Venezuelans in the Brazilian state of Roraima, which shares a land border with Venezuela. Results indicate that the inflow of Venezuelan refugees lowered labor force participation and employment rate but did not have a significant impact on hourly wages in Brazil. Our estimates show that labor force participation among less educated individuals decreased by a larger magnitude, while females lost jobs in informal and self‐employed sectors. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the short‐term economic consequences of hosting refugees in developing countries.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThis two‐part article offers a critical appreciation of Malthus's political economy of population to mark the bi‐centenary of his Principles of Political Economy (1820). His general economic theory emerged after the first four editions of his famous Essay, in three steps: (1) a rapidly produced series of essays on tariffs, rents, and capital mal‐distribution (1814–1815); (2) consequent revision of the economic basis of the Essay (1817); and (3) formal statement in the Principles. His main economic writings thus belong to a later, more mature period of his work, and their evolution is of particular interest for demography on three counts. One is that his rethinking was stimulated directly by the need to rectify serious deficiencies he had come to recognize in the Essay. Second, this makes his later thought of more direct interest to today's study of population and development. Third, all three steps began in, and were sustained by, dialogue with Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations. The dialogue led to further thinking beyond the Essay, with major innovative developments. Comparison to the Smithian baseline shows (1) that the familiar stereotype of Malthus as prophet of population‐laden disaster is seriously incomplete; and (2) capital distribution replaces population distribution as a mechanism of growth, inducing a radical change in the concept of population.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nDespite its central importance to global family planning, the “unmet need for contraception” metric is frequently misinterpreted. Often conflated with a lack of access, misinterpretation of what unmet need means and how it is measured has important implications for family planning programs. We review previous examinations of unmet need, with a focus on the roles of access and demand for contraception, as well as the role of population control in shaping the indicator's priorities. We suggest that disaggregating unmet need into “demand‐side unmet need” (stemming from lack of demand) and “supply‐side unmet need” (stemming from lack of access) could allow current data to be leveraged into a more person‐centered understanding of contraceptive need. We use Demographic and Health Survey data from seven sub‐Saharan African countries to generate a proof‐of‐concept, dividing women into unmet need categories based on reason for contraceptive nonuse. We perform sensitivity analyses with varying conceptions of access and disaggregate by education and marital status. We find that demand‐side unmet need far exceeds supply‐side unmet need in all scenarios. Focusing on supply‐side rather than overall unmet need is an imperfect but productive step toward person‐centered measurement, while more sweeping changes to family planning measurement are still required.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThis article explores forced migration and policy transition in East Africa using the case study of Kenya—a key regional destination for forced migrants. Using a descriptive and historical approach to highlight the dynamics of forced migration (1990–2021), the study emphasizes on what factors underlie the change of policy from integration to encampment. The author argues that central to this transition are discourses on national security, domestic, and regional politics. Using the theory of securitization, the study finds that assumptive blames on forced migrants expose them to greater vulnerabilities, while failure to recognize the challenges facing host states also undermines the management of forced migrants. The author concludes that the principles of global cosmopolitanism should underlie response and that when critical national interests necessitate stricter limitations on the extent to which forced migrants can enjoy certain rights and freedoms, then the international community must strive to play a greater role to minimize risks to both host nations and forced migrants.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nIn response to mounting evidence of harm inflicted on irregular migrants along their journeys from West Africa to Europe, international organizations, civil society organizations, and governments have scaled up campaigns as a tool for raising awareness about the risks of irregular migration. Campaigns aim to counter misinformation by smugglers and facilitate safe migration decisions. Despite the growing number of interventions, there is limited empirical evidence on the impact and effectiveness of such campaigns. Based on a difference‐in‐difference design, this study investigates the effect of a mobile cinema and community discussion intervention on the perceptions, knowledge, and intentions of potential irregular migrants in Northern Guinea in 2019. The results show that potential migrants who participated in events were significantly more likely to show awareness gains and less likely to report high intentions to migrate irregularly. While the relative importance of risk perceptions and their impact on migration flows remain unclear, the findings provide evidence supporting the assumption that risk awareness can be a relevant factor in the decision‐making process of potential irregular migrants. While campaigns may be an effective tool in certain contexts, effect sizes highlight the need for policymakers to keep realistic expectations.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 4, Page 1107-1142, December 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nIn this paper, we provide the first household‐level empirical multievent study of temporary internal migration as a consequence of tropical storms. In order to do, so we combine three waves of the Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey with geo‐referenced tropical cyclone data from the Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. Based on the resulting panel dataset, we study temporary emigration patterns evolving in the aftermath of occurring storms in the sample communes. We find robust empirical evidence in favor of a significant push effect on temporary migration. Occurring storms increase the likelihood that a household sends members to other regions in Vietnam. Storms also tend to increase the number of absent household members and absence time. Moreover, we show that occurring storms increase both seasonal and long‐term absences.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 4, Page 1025-1047, December 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nThis paper investigates the extent to which in utero exposure to temperature shocks affects birth weight outcomes in Vietnam. Exploiting the variations across districts and conception timing within districts, we show that a one standard deviation increase in temperature relative to the local norm (approximately 0.52°C) during the first trimester of pregnancy reduces the child's weight at birth by 67 g or 2.2 percent. Our heterogeneity analysis suggests that infants living in rural areas, born to poor and low‐educated mothers are especially vulnerable to temperature shocks.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 4, Page 1143-1177, December 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nArmed conflicts are a concern for human development and public health and represent a major impediment for realizing Sustainable Development Goal #3: to ensure healthy lives and promote well‐being for all at all ages. Vaccination programs can be highly politicized and subjected to major security constraints in war zones, reducing their effectiveness. This article studies how armed conflict impacts immunization rates among children, combining two large datasets. We use health data for 15 conflict‐affected countries in sub‐Saharan Africa, including multiple Demographic and Health Survey rounds for most. We exploit the fact that age‐appropriate vaccinations should take place in the child's first year of life and compare children aged one to five with varying degrees of (local) conflict exposure in their first year of life within the same countries and communities. We differentiate between the effects of local and country‐level exposure to conflict on childhood immunization rates. The regression results show that conflict has a nonmonotonic effect on vaccination rates with minor (major) conflicts being associated with higher (lower) full immunization rates. We argue that in the case of minor conflicts, local‐level health care access drives the results, whereas for major conflicts it is mainly national channels that drive the result.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 4, Page 997-1023, December 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nGenerational overlap affects the care time demands on parents and grandparents worldwide. Here, we present the first global estimates of the experience of simultaneously having frail older parents and young children (“sandwichness”) or young grandchildren (“grandsandwichness”) for the 1970–2040 cohorts, using demographic methods and microsimulations. We find that sandwichness is more prevalent in the Global South—for example, almost twice as prevalent in sub‐Saharan Africa as it is in Europe for the 1970 cohort—but is expected to decline globally by one‐third between 1970 and 2040. The Global North might have reached a peak in the simultaneous care time demands from multiple generations but the duration of the grandsandwich state will increase by up to one year in Africa and Asia. This increasing generational overlap implies more care time demands over the entire adult life course, but also opens up an opportunity for the full potential of grandparenthood to materialize.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 4, Page 887-912, December 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nEconomic inequality has been rising in many sub‐Saharan African countries alongside rapid changes to union and family formation. In high‐income countries marked by rising inequality, union and family formation practices have diverged across socioeconomic statuses, with intergenerational social and health consequences for the disadvantaged. In this study, we address whether there is also evidence of demographic divergence in low‐income settings. Specifically, we model the age at first marriage and first birth by socioeconomic status groups for women born between 1960 and 1989 using Demographic and Health Survey data from 12 sub‐Saharan African countries where economic inequality levels are relatively high or rising. We argue that economic and sociocultural factors may both serve to increasingly delay marriage and childbearing for the elite as compared to others in the context of rising inequality. We find emerging social stratification in marriage and childbearing, and demonstrate that this demographic divergence is driven by the elites who are increasingly marrying and having children at later ages, with near stagnation in the age at first marriage and birth among the remaining majority. We urge further research at the intersection of socioeconomic and demographic inequality to inform necessary policy levers and curtail negative social and health consequences.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 4, Page 1049-1074, December 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nThe twenty‐first century marked the beginning of rapid health improvements in Russia. In the late 2000s and the 2010s, there was already a moderate decrease in inter‐oblast mortality disparities, with the exception of the growing life expectancy (LE) advantage of Moscow and Saint Petersburg. We have used newly available data to explore LE changes from 2003–2005 to 2015–2017 and determinants of LE differences across settlements of different types and population sizes. We distinguished between three major segments of the LE distribution: Moscow and Saint Petersburg at the top, large‐ and medium‐sized cities in the middle, and smaller urban and rural areas lagging behind. The LE differences among these three groups increased, but the within‐group differences decreased. The gaps between bigger cities and the “periphery” within oblasts grew, and this part of the total dispersion had increased substantially by 2015–2017. Education, together with population size, explained 62 percent (for females) and 67 percent (for males) of LE variation across 292 geographic units in 2015–2017. Our results suggest that slower health progress in small urban and rural areas is an important obstacle to further mortality reduction at the national level and is a matter of public health concern.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 4, Page 913-964, December 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nIn the course of the twentieth century, social scientists and policy analysts have produced a large volume of literature on whether policies boost fertility. This paper describes the results of a systematic review of the literature on the effects of policy on fertility since 1970 in Europe, the United States, Canada, and Australia. Empirical studies were selected through extensive systematic searches, including studies using an experimental or quasi‐experimental design. Thirty‐five studies were included, covering reforms of parental leave, childcare, health services, and universal child transfers. In line with previous reviews, we find that childcare expansions increase completed fertility, while increased cash transfers have temporary effects. New evidence on parental leave expansions, particularly from Central Europe, suggests larger effects than previously established. High‐earning couples benefit more from parental leave expansions, while expanding childcare programs can reduce social inequalities on other domains. Subsidizing assisted reproductive treatments shows some promise of increasing birth rates for women over the age of 35. Countries that to date have limited support for families can build on solid evidence if they choose to expand these programs.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 4, Page 965-996, December 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nThis study decomposes the changes in income distribution among older adults between 1996 and 2016 in South Korea. We found that income distribution among older adults worsened between 1996 and 2010 and then improved between 2010 and 2016. From 1996 to 2010, the rapid change in living arrangements was the most powerful contributor to the worsening income distribution. The decrease in market income also contributed to reducing the median income and increasing poverty. Yet, expanded public transfers cancelled out most of the negative effects of the decrease in market income. From 2010 to 2016, the change in living arrangement still significantly decreased median income and increased inequality and poverty. The increase in market income considerably contributed to the increase in median income and the decrease in poverty. Above all, the rise in public transfer income became the most influential contributor to the increase in median income and the decrease in inequality and poverty.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 4, Page 1075-1105, December 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nThis article uses the health shock on Japanese civilians of the Second World War to understand the effects of health shocks at different developmental stages on children's long‐run growth pattern and to test whether recovery is possible after an early‐life health shock. We construct a prefecture‐level dataset of mean heights of boys and girls aged 6–19 from 1929 to 2015. Linking the heights recorded at different ages for the same birth cohort, we measure a counterfactual causal effect of the health shocks during the Second World War on the cohort growth pattern of children. We find that the war effect was greatest for cohorts exposed to the war in late childhood and adolescence: these cohorts were 1.7–3.0 cm shorter at adulthood and had delayed pubertal growth and slower maturation than they would have had if the war had never occurred. However, there were no persistent health penalties for children exposed to the war in early life, suggesting that catch‐up growth was possible as health conditions improved after the war. These findings challenge the thousand‐days consensus that children cannot recover from nutritional shocks in early life and indicate that adolescence is a sensitive period for health shocks.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 3, Page 665-689, September 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nRelying on longitudinal microdata from a Spanish rural region between 1750 and 1950 (almost 35,000 life courses), this article provides evidence that discriminatory practices affected sex‐specific mortality during infancy and childhood. Although it is likely that families also discriminated against girls during the first year of life, female excess mortality was especially visible in the 1–5 age group. While breastfeeding seems to have temporarily mitigated the effects of gender discrimination, sex‐specific mortality rates behaved very differently once children were weaned. Parents, therefore, prioritized boys during infancy and childhood in the allocation of food and/or care in order to enhance their survival chances.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 3, Page 639-663, September 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nAcross the world, populations have transitioned to inhabiting urban spaces, and in low‐ and middle‐income countries the proportion of people living in cities is expected to continue to increase. Anticipation of this fundamental process calls for a better understanding of the demographic factors that drive the urban transition. By indirectly estimating the joint contribution of migration and administrative reclassification to urban transition in 129 countries using urban and rural population by age and sex data available from the United Nations over 1985–2015, we find that differences in natural increase between the rural and urban sectors explain most of the urbanization over the 30‐year period examined. Over the urban transition, the role of migration and reclassification declines and becomes negligible. Despite data limitations, we confirm that it is misleading to view migration as fueling urbanization in low‐ and middle‐income countries.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 3, Page 611-637, September 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nStudies have reported that the age‐adjusted incidence of cognitive impairment and dementia have decreased over the past two decades. Aging is the predominant risk factor for Alzheimer's disease and related dementias and for neurocognitive decline. However, aging alone cannot explain changes in the overall age‐adjusted incidence of dementia. The objective of this position paper was to describe the potential for cohort and period effects in cognitive decline and incidence of dementia. Cohort effects have long been reported in demographic literature, but starting in the early 1980s researchers began reporting large historical cohort trends in cognitive function. At the same time, period effects have emerged in the form of economic factors and stressors in early and midlife that may result in reduced cognitive dysfunction. Recognizing that aging individuals today were once children and adolescents and that research has clearly noted that childhood cognitive performance are associated with old‐age cognitive performance, this review proposes the need to connect these cohort effects with differences in late‐life functioning.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 3, Page 719-747, September 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nThis study investigates whether young people in low‐ and middle‐income countries (LMICs) have experienced processes of destandardization of the life course similar to those observed in high‐income societies. We provide two contributions to the relevant literature. First, we use data from 263 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) across 69 LMICs, offering the richest comparative account to date of women's transition to adulthood (TTA) patterns in the developing world. In so doing, we adopt sequence analysis and shift the focus from individual life‐course events—namely first sexual intercourse, first union, and first birth—to a visually appealing approach that allows us to describe interrelations among events. By focusing on the analysis of trajectories rather than the occurrence of single events, the study provides an in‐depth focus on the timing of events, time intervals between events, and how experiencing (or not) one event might have consequences for subsequent markers in the TTA in cross‐national comparative perspective. Second, we identify clusters of TTA and explore their changes across cohorts by region and household location of residence (rural vs. urban). We document significant differences by macro‐regions, yet relative stability across cohorts. We interpret the latter as suggestive of cultural specificities that make the TTA resistant to change and slow to converge across regions, if converging at all. Also, we find that much of the difference across cluster typologies ensues from variation related to when the transition begins (early vs. late), rather than from the duration between events, which tends to be uniformly quick across three out of four clusters.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 3, Page 749-780, September 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nEconomists have long argued that introducing social insurance will reduce fertility. The hypothesis relies on standard models: if children are desirable in part because they provide security in case of disability or old age, then State programs that provide insurance against these events should induce couples to substitute away from children in the allocation of wealth. We test this claim using the introduction of social insurance in Germany in the period 1881–1910. Bismarck's social insurance scheme had three pillars: health insurance, workplace accident insurance, and an old‐age pension. Earlier studies typically focus on the pension alone; we consider all three pillars. We find that Bismarck's social insurance system affected fertility overall only via its effects on the incentive to marry. The old‐age insurance by itself tended to reduce marriages, but the health and accident insurance components had the opposite effect. For people exposed to all three pillars of social insurance, the two effects cancelled each other and the aggregate effect on fertility was muted.\nfertility transition; economics; social insurance\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 3, Page 691-717, September 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nUsing census and survey microdata from 69 countries worldwide, in this paper we document levels of intergenerational coresidence over the life course and examine changes in recent decades. We present evidence of a generalized pattern of increase in intergenerational coresidence during the initial decade of this century. This is most evident among people aged 20–30 and, at least in regions such as Europe and North America and in Latin America and the Caribbean, affects women as much or more than it does men. Rates of increase are fastest in Asia (especially among men), robust in Europe and Latin America, and relatively slow in Africa. This shift is occurring in a variety of demographic, economic, and cultural contexts and appears to run counter to expectations that intergenerational coresidence would gradually decline with modernization and cultural change. We discuss the extent to which these results challenge existing interpretations of the role of the family in contemporary society.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 3, Page 579-609, September 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nNature has been the major source of demographic shocks until the nineteenth century, after which Politics has gradually become the main factor of catastrophic traumas. During the first part of the past century, war, violence, forced migration, man‐made famines, and the epidemics unchained by them were responsible for tens of millions of deaths. They left deep scars in the survivors, distorted the age structure, altered the equilibrium between the sexes and between generations, and affected in multiple ways the continental European demographic system, including the geographical distribution of the population.  A quantitative assessment of the victims of these Politics‐driven traumas is here attempted, as is a first exploration of the political conviction that drove them: that populations and their number, structure, and geographical location, could be manipulated by the state. The collapse of multinational multiethnic, multicultural, and multilingual empires, however illiberal, led to the identification of the state with the nation, and of the nation with an ethnic group, and bred an intolerant hyperethnicism, culminating in ferocious episodes of ethnic cleansing and genocide whose consequences resonate to this day in Europe and beyond.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nChild fostering has been documented over time in many parts of sub‐Saharan Africa. We know little, however, about how the prevalence of fostering differs across countries and broad regions, nor about how fostering—and its predictors—has changed within countries over time. To explore prevalence, trends, and predictors of child fostering, I leverage Demographic and Health Survey data of mothers of children aged 0–15 from 139 surveys in 36 countries collected between 1986 and 2019, representing all regions of sub‐Saharan Africa. Results suggest striking variation in the prevalence of contemporary fostering, ranging from 11.5 percent of mothers in Burundi to 45.7 percent in Namibia in the most recent survey. Fostering trends have fluctuated over time in the majority of countries, but have remained broadly stable, with random and fixed‐effects models indicating that the key correlates across and within countries over time have remained stable, with the prevalence of never‐married motherhood playing a key role in fostering. Together, results suggest child fostering remains an enduring institution in family life throughout sub‐Saharan Africa.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThe literature on migration during armed conflict is abundant. Yet, the questions of highest policy relevance—how many people will leave because of a conflict and how many more people will be living outside a country because of a conflict—are not well addressed. This article explores these questions using an agent‐based model, a computational simulation that allows us to connect armed conflict to individual behavioral changes and then to aggregate migration flows and migrant stocks. With detailed data from Nepal during the 1996–2006 conflict, we find that out‐migration rates actually decrease on average, largely due to a prior decrease in return migration. Regardless, the stock of migrants outside the country increases modestly during that period. Broadly, this study demonstrates that population dynamics are inherent to and necessary for understanding conflict‐related migration. We conclude with a discussion of the generalizability and policy implications of this study.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 2, Page 377-409, June 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nEducation, general health, and reproductive health are key indicators of human development. Investments in these domains can also promote economic growth. This paper argues for human development–related investments based on (1) a theoretical economic growth model with poverty traps, (2) a literature review of evidence that different human development–related investments can promote growth, and (3) own empirical analyses of 1980–2015 data that aim to estimate the relative contribution of different human development indicators to economic growth across heterogeneous growth regimes. Our results suggest the following associations: (1) a one‐child decrease in the total fertility rate corresponds to a 2 percentage point (pp) increase in annual per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the short run (five years) and 0.5 pp higher annual growth in the mid‐run to long run (35 years), (2) a 10 percent increase in life expectancy at birth corresponds to a 1 pp increase in annual per capita GDP growth in the short run and 0.4 pp higher growth in the mid‐run to long run, and (3) a one‐year increase in average educational attainment corresponds to a 0.7 pp increase in annual growth in the short run and 0.3 pp higher growth in the mid‐run to long run. By contrast, infrastructure proxies are not significantly associated with subsequent growth in any of the models estimated.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 2, Page 347-375, June 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nDespite decades of sweeping socioeconomic and cultural transformations, extended households remain widespread in many regions of the world. The mechanisms explaining this persistence are not well‐established. The research reported on here investigates these mechanisms in India, where the prevalence of stem and joint households ranks among the highest in the world. Combining demographic and ethnographic data, this study compares processes of household change in two villages in India's Deccan Plateau. Results highlight key pathways by which development can contribute to both the decline and persistence of joint households. In the first village, joint households have become virtually extinct in recent years. Analyses suggest that frequent labor migrations, depopulation, and slow economic growth largely explain this decline. In the second village, there was a recent increase in the prevalence of joint households. The expansion of irrigation created economic opportunities in farming and other industries. Many young men now jointly invest in land with their father and brother(s) instead of purchasing separate houses. This suggests that agricultural improvements and the revitalization of the village economy have stimulated the formation of joint households. In both villages, ethnographic data reveal the ambivalent preferences and practical considerations underpinning residential decisions.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 2, Page 449-474, June 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nDespite growing efforts to conceptualize residential mobility and migration as long‐term trajectories, because of methodological challenges and the lack of adequate data, most empirical studies have resorted to examining year‐to‐year changes in place of residence. As a result, the impact of past migration experiences on future migration behavior remains poorly understood. To shed light on time interdependencies in individual migration trajectories, this paper examines associations between past moves and subsequent migration behavior from birth to age 50, distinguishing between (i) intraregional mobility, interregional migration and international migration and (ii) return and onward moves. By applying multinominal regression models to retrospective life history data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we demonstrate that the decision to migrate at a particular point in time is embedded within a wider migration history that started in childhood. However, we also find that the effect of past moves diminishes as individuals progress in their migration career. These findings hold for intraregional, interregional and international moves. Altogether, these findings lend support to our theoretical proposition that migration is a learned behavior and highlight the importance of accounting for time interdependency in individuals’ migration trajectories.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 2, Page 475-503, June 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nDisparities in reproductive behavior visible in the developed world are a long‐term implication of the demographic transition. While present at the very outset of the transition, their effects are most visible once childhood mortality loses its relevance as a key constraint on reproduction. These disparities are rooted in the type of society that emerged as the result of the way the historical role of the family and individual in society interacted with social and economic modernization processes characterizing the entire century, but especially visible during the rapid acceleration of social and cultural changes after mid‐century. The way these new societies function provides a necessary backdrop for understanding fertility in a world of individual reproductive choice and competing goals. The result is that traditionally individualistic societies tend to fare better than societies where family loyalties are and have always been a cornerstone of society. Disparities in fertility are rooted in the incentives and disincentives for reproduction present in society, are unlikely to disappear anytime soon and are leading to very different rates of aging in the developed world.\n"]

["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 2, Page 289-322, June 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nGender differences in union formation and sexual initiation in sub‐Saharan Africa remain poorly documented, in large part due to a scarcity of research on the transition to adulthood among men. We adopt a novel perspective on this topic by examining gender gaps in the ages at first union and sex in 24 countries, focusing on measures of central tendency and dispersion. Gender differences in age at first union decreased, driven by postponement among women with relatively late union formation. Yet, due to concurrent persistence of early unions among a sizable portion of women's populations, within‐country heterogeneity in ages at first union increased substantially among women. Thus, although forces responsible for earlier union formation among women than men are weakening, these changes affect population strata unequally. Gender differences in age at first sex decreased to a lesser extent, but in some countries, they disappeared or reversed, uncovering a shift in the relationship between gender and timing of sexual initiation. Changes in union formation and sexual initiation are more heterogeneous across countries among men than women, indicating that these processes among men are more context specific. We show importance of studying men's behavior and exploring heterogeneity in union formation and sexual initiation both within and between populations of women and men.\n"]