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Population and Development Review

Impact factor: 2.085 5-Year impact factor: 2.396 Print ISSN: 0098-7921 Publisher: Wiley Blackwell (Blackwell Publishing)

Subjects: Sociology, Demography

Most recent papers:

  • Female Labor Force Participation in Sub‐Saharan Africa: A Cohort Analysis.
    Andreas Backhaus, Elke Loichinger.
    Population and Development Review. June 30, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 2, Page 379-411, June 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nFemale labor force participation rates have been stagnating despite rising female education in sub‐Saharan Africa since the turn of the millennium. Using representative and repeated census data from a heterogeneous sample of 13 sub‐Saharan African countries, this paper analyzes female labor force participation from a demographic perspective. We show that enrollment in education is substantially higher among the most recent female cohorts than among the earlier‐born ones. The higher enrollment mechanically depresses female labor force participation, weakening the relationship between female labor force participation and education. After taking this cohort trend into account, we find a strong and positive association between female labor force participation and female education. We further find a cohort trend toward higher female employment in the nonprimary sector and a positive association between female employment in the nonprimary sector and female education. The higher investments in education by younger female cohorts, together with the demographics of sub‐Saharan African countries, have implications for a potentially arising “demographic dividend”.\n"]
    June 30, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12492   open full text
  • Witnessing Intimate Partner Violence Impacts Schooling and Labor Market Outcomes for Young Women in India.
    Teralynn Ludwick, Marie Ishida, Sapna Desai, Ajay Mahal.
    Population and Development Review. June 30, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 2, Page 505-543, June 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nIntimate partner violence (IPV) is a major health and social issue that affects around 30 percent of women globally. This study investigates the relationships through which witnessing IPV in adolescence may impact the labor force participation and employment prospects of women in early adulthood, using a unique dataset from Bihar (India), which surveyed youth (primarily girls) in adolescence and again nine years later. The study examined the relationship between exposure to IPV and labor market outcomes among young women, including intermediate factors likely to influence their employment prospects, such as educational attainment, self‐efficacy, mental health, and soft skills. Witnessing IPV as an adolescent had a negative effect on educational attainment, mental health, and social and behavioral aspects of young women almost nine years later. IPV was not associated with the likelihood of paid employment or participation in skilled work among women, although it was associated with higher levels of labor force participation. These findings suggest that witnessing IPV should be considered one of multiple forms of violence that may expose young women to longer term vulnerability related to poorer educational and employment prospects, mental health, and social networks, with implications for economic and social development far beyond the family.\n"]
    June 30, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12460   open full text
  • The Effect of Maternal Education on Child Mortality in Bangladesh.
    Hanbo Wu.
    Population and Development Review. June 30, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 2, Page 475-503, June 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nThis paper examines the effect of maternal education on child mortality in Bangladesh by exploiting quasi‐experimental variations in the duration of exposure to a school stipend project for identification. Results from the instrumental variable estimation indicate that an additional year of maternal schooling reduces both under‐five and infant mortality by about 20 percent. The findings are statistically significant and robust to a number of model specifications, including survival models controlling for right censoring of child mortality. Analysis of potential mechanisms suggests that maternal education reduces child mortality through greater wealth and literacy, positive assortative mating, lower fertility, delayed marriage and childbearing, greater health‐related knowledge, better health‐seeking behaviors, and female empowerment, but not through female employment.\n"]
    June 30, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12467   open full text
  • Women's Legal Rights and Gender Gaps in Property Ownership in Developing Countries.
    Isis Gaddis, Rahul Lahoti, Hema Swaminathan.
    Population and Development Review. June 30, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 2, Page 331-377, June 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nWomen's property ownership matters for their well‐being and agency, broader economic prosperity, and children's development. However, until recently, a lack of data has constrained further exploration of gender differences in property ownership in the developing world. Using data from 41 developing countries, this paper contributes to the literature by investigating gender gaps in the incidence of property ownership among couples and the factors associated with these gaps, focusing on the role of legal systems. We find that in almost all countries, husbands are more likely to own property than wives. Across countries in our sample, husbands are, on average, 2.7 times more like than wives to own property alone and 1.4 times more likely to own property alone or jointly. Within countries, gender gaps in the incidence of property ownership are most pronounced for disadvantaged groups, that is, the rural population and the poorest quintile. These gender gaps reflect a variety of factors, including discriminatory laws with respect to inheritance, property ownership, marital regimes, and laws that protect from workplace discrimination. Countries with more gender egalitarian legal regimes have higher levels of property ownership by married women, especially housing, suggesting that legal reforms are a potential mechanism to increase women's property ownership.\n"]
    June 30, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12493   open full text
  • The Effect of Pronatalist Rhetoric on Women's Fertility Preferences in Turkey.
    Yasemin Dildar.
    Population and Development Review. June 30, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 2, Page 579-612, June 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nThis paper analyzes the impact of pronatalist rhetoric on women's fertility preferences in Turkey using a mixed‐methods approach. Since 2008, Prime Minister (and since 2014 President) Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has given speeches about the necessity of increasing fertility and has demanded at least three children from families. This call was supported by monetary incentives in 2015. I analyze the impact of the rhetoric on women's fertility preferences between 2008 and 2013. In the first part of the paper, I use qualitative data I collected through in‐depth interviews in 2013 to show a relationship between women's political orientation and their acceptance of the rhetoric. Then, using quantitative data from the 2008 and 2013 rounds of the Turkey Demographic and Health Surveys, I analyze whether the pronatalist rhetoric had an independent effect on increasing fertility preferences. An individual‐level religiosity variable is used as a proxy to account for women's responsiveness to the rhetoric. I find that religiosity was positively related to women's desire to have a third child in both 2008 and 2013, but it was statistically significant only in 2013 after the rhetoric had been widely circulated in the media.\n"]
    June 30, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12466   open full text
  • Sensitivity Analysis of Excess Mortality due to the COVID‐19 Pandemic.
    Marília R. Nepomuceno, Ilya Klimkin, Dmitri A. Jdanov, Ainhoa Alustiza‐Galarza, Vladimir M. Shkolnikov.
    Population and Development Review. June 30, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 2, Page 279-302, June 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nEstimating excess mortality is challenging. The metric depends on the expected mortality level, which can differ based on given choices, such as the method and the time series length used to estimate the baseline. However, these choices are often arbitrary, and are not subject to any sensitivity analysis. We bring to light the importance of carefully choosing the inputs and methods used to estimate excess mortality. Drawing on data from 26 countries, we investigate how sensitive excess mortality is to the choice of the mortality index, the number of years included in the reference period, the method, and the time unit of the death series. We employ two mortality indices, three reference periods, two data time units, and four methods for estimating the baseline. We show that excess mortality estimates can vary substantially when these factors are changed, and that the largest variations stem from the choice of the mortality index and the method. We also find that the magnitude of the variation in excess mortality is country‐specific, resulting in cross‐country rankings changes. Finally, based on our findings, we provide guidelines for estimating excess mortality.\n"]
    June 30, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12475   open full text
  • Women's Low Employment Rates in India: Cultural and Structural Explanations.
    Esha Chatterjee, Reeve D. Vanneman.
    Population and Development Review. June 30, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 2, Page 445-474, June 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nIndian women's labor force participation rates have long demonstrated a U‐shaped relationship with their education, rather than a more conventional positive linear relationship. The low rates of employment for moderately educated women are usually explained either as a result of the cultural stigma of women's employment in a patriarchal society or because of the lack of demand from white‐collar and light manufacturing jobs for women with middle levels of education. Using especially well‐suited data from two waves of the India Human Development Survey, we test these explanations by examining the education–employment relationship in districts with low cultural stigma (low observance of purdah) and high proportions of (salaried) employment considered “suitable” for women. We find little support for either the cultural or structural explanations: the education–employment relationship remains U‐shaped in districts with low stigma or with more “suitable” salaried employment. Instead, we suggest a better explanation lies in the high levels of gender segregation where most white‐collar jobs are reserved for men. We simulate what the education–employment relationship would look like if these white‐collar occupations were female‐dominated as they are in most places in the world and find a more conventional linear relationship.\n"]
    June 30, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12474   open full text
  • Dynamics between Regional Sex Ratios at Birth and Sex Ratios at Prime Marriageable Ages in China.
    Wanru Xiong.
    Population and Development Review. June 30, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 2, Page 545-578, June 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nFollowing the homeostatic principle in demography and the notion of a sex ratio transition, I propose a self‐corrective mechanism to describe the dynamics of regional sex ratios in China. The mechanism consists of two pathways: (1) internal migration redistributes men and women across regions in a way that reduces highly skewed regional sex ratios at prime marriageable ages (SRM); and (2) a competitive marriage market for men reduces parental incentives for son‐biased sex selection, thus lowering sex ratios at birth (SRB). The mechanism suggests several hypotheses about the dynamics between regional SRBs and SRMs. I test these hypotheses using prefecture‐level sex ratios in four Chinese population censuses from 1982 to 2010. I use regression analyses that control for prefectural demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Results show that prefectures with higher SRBs in 1982 and 1990 experienced a greater decline in sex ratios of residents when the birth cohort reached marriageable ages in 2000 and 2010, respectively, resulting in a weak correlation between SRBs and subsequent SRMs in the same prefecture. Prefectural SRBs in 2000 and 2010 were negatively correlated with contemporary SRMs—a one‐unit higher prefectural SRM was associated with an approximately 0.3‐unit lower SRB in 2000 and 0.2‐unit lower SRB in 2010. Changes in prefectural SRBs between 1990 and 2010 are negatively correlated with changes in SRMs during the same period. The empirical findings are consistent with the implications of the proposed self‐corrective mechanism, suggesting that sex ratios may be subject to homeostatic forces within the population system.\n"]
    June 30, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12476   open full text
  • Change and Variation in U.S. Couples’ Earnings Equality Following Parenthood.
    Kelly Musick, Pilar Gonalons‐Pons, Christine R. Schwartz.
    Population and Development Review. June 30, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 2, Page 413-443, June 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nIn the context of broad increases in gender equality and growing socioeconomic disparities along multiple dimensions of family life, we examine changes in within‐family earnings equality following parenthood and the extent to which they have played out differently by education. Our analysis relies on links between rich surveys and administrative tax records that provide high‐quality earnings data for husbands and wives spanning two years before and up to 10 years following first births from the 1980s to the 2000s in the United States (Survey of Income and Program Participation Synthetic Beta files; N = 21,300 couples and 194,100 couple‐years). Accounting for time‐invariant couple characteristics and year and age fixed effects, we find that wives’ share of total couple earnings declines substantially after parenthood and remains lower over the observation window, irrespective of cohort and education. Cohort changes in within‐family earnings equality are modest and concentrated among the earliest cohort of parents, and data provide little evidence of differential change by education. These findings have implications for women's economic vulnerability, particularly in the United States where divorce remains common and public support for families is weak.\n"]
    June 30, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12481   open full text
  • Theories of Postindustrial Fertility Decline: An Empirical Examination.
    Sinn Won Han, Mary C. Brinton.
    Population and Development Review. June 30, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 2, Page 303-330, June 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nFamily formation patterns in the postindustrial world have changed markedly in the past several decades. Fertility rates have declined, cohabitation rates have increased, age at marriage has gone up, and nonmarital childbearing has become more common in most postindustrial settings. A dominant theoretical explanation for these changes is second demographic transition (SDT) theory, which posits widespread value change towards individualism and postmaterialist concerns. In contrast, gender equity theory emphasizes structural changes, including women's increased participation in the public sphere and the resulting incompatibility of women's domestic and public roles given the slower adaptation on the part of families and institutions to adapt to women's new roles. We test the predictions of these two theoretical frameworks by analyzing fertility decline in 27 European societies. We find evolving gender egalitarianism, measured by the prevalence of gender‐egalitarian attitudes, to have greater explanatory power than SDT‐related ideational changes. The gender equity framework is particularly relevant in explaining the recent fertility trajectories of Central, Eastern, and Southern European countries.\n"]
    June 30, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12490   open full text
  • It Takes a Village: Childcare and Women's Paid Employment in India.
    Leila Gautham.
    Population and Development Review. June 29, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nWhy is maternal employment higher in rural than in urban India? Among the relevant supply‐side factors, previous research has emphasized that rural work is more compatible with childcare. Results from the Indian Time Use Survey of 2019 show that hours of active maternal childcare are only slightly lower in rural areas, but the temporal and spatial flexibility of paid employment is much greater, making it easier for mothers to accommodate childcare responsibilities. In particular, rural women's work affords them greater access to flexible hours and the ability to work in close proximity to the home. Consequently, the negative effects of motherhood on employment are significantly greater for urban women than for rural women. This finding cannot be explained by rural–urban differences in household structure or resource constraints. These results redirect attention from average levels of time use towards a more nuanced analysis of sequence, timing, and opportunities for joint production or multitasking.\n"]
    June 29, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12504   open full text
  • Population Aging, Demographic Metabolism, and the Rising Tide of Late Middle Age to Older Adult Loneliness Around the World.
    Lauren Newmyer, Ashton M. Verdery, Haowei Wang, Rachel Margolis.
    Population and Development Review. June 24, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThis study examines how population aging shapes a crucial aspect of mental health and social well‐being: loneliness. Drawing on theories of demographic metabolism, United Nations population estimates and projections, and survey data covering approximately 50 percent of the world's population aged 50 and above living in 27 countries, we estimate the role of population aging in shaping cross‐national differences in loneliness from 1990 to 2050. We used survey data to estimate the prevalence of late middle age and older adult loneliness by age and sex and then applied these rates to the evolving age and sex distributions of the populations. Our results highlight massive increases in loneliness at ages 50 and above with a tripling of the number of lonely adults in these age groups in our sample countries from 104.9 million in 1990 to 333.5 million in 2050, increasing variability across countries in the share of their populations composed of lonely adults 50 and above, and the feminization of global later life loneliness with an increasing share of lonely adults in these age ranges being women. These results illustrate the power of demographic modeling to advance our understanding of national profiles of mental health and social well‐being.\n"]
    June 24, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12506   open full text
  • Large and Persistent Life Expectancy Disparities between India's Social Groups.
    Aashish Gupta, Nikkil Sudharsanan.
    Population and Development Review. April 05, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nIndia is one of the most rigidly stratified societies in the world, yet little is known about life expectancy disparities in the country. We provide direct estimates of social differences in life expectancy in India using survey data spanning two decades. We show that individuals from the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes have drastically and persistently lower life expectancies than high‐caste individuals (between 4.2–4.4 years for women and 6.1–7.0 years for men in 2013–2016). While Muslims had a modest life expectancy disadvantage compared to high castes in 1997–2000, this disadvantage has grown substantially over the past 20 years. Mortality disparities between marginalized and privileged social groups are present across the entire life‐course and are increasingly driven by older‐age mortality. Our findings reveal a pressing need for far greater attention to the health of marginalized populations in India.\n"]
    April 05, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12489   open full text
  • The Childhood Origins of Climate‐Induced Mobility and Immobility.
    Brian C. Thiede, Heather Randell, Clark Gray.
    Population and Development Review. March 30, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThe literature on climate exposures and human migration has focused largely on assessing short‐term responses to temperature and precipitation shocks. In this paper, we suggest that this common coping strategies model can be extended to account for mechanisms that link environmental conditions to migration behavior over longer periods of time. We argue that early‐life climate exposures may affect the likelihood of migration from childhood through early adulthood by influencing parental migration, community migration networks, human capital development, and decisions about household resource allocation, all of which are correlates of geographic mobility. After developing this conceptual framework, we evaluate the corresponding hypotheses using a big data approach, analyzing 20 million individual georeferenced records from 81 censuses implemented across 31 countries in tropical Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. For each world region, we estimate regression models that predict lifetime migration (a change in residence between birth and ages 30–39) as a function of temperature and precipitation anomalies in early life, defined as the year prior to birth to age four. Results suggest that early‐life climate is systematically associated with changes in the probability of lifetime migration in most regions of the tropics, with the largest effects observed in sub‐Saharan Africa. In East and Southern Africa, the effects of temperature shocks vary by sex and educational attainment and in a manner that suggests women and those of lower socioeconomic status are most vulnerable. Finally, we compare our main results with models using alternative measures of climate exposures. This comparison suggests climate exposures during the prenatal period and first few years of life are particularly (but not exclusively) salient for lifetime migration, which is most consistent with the hypothesized human capital mechanism.\n"]
    March 30, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12482   open full text
  • Demography: Fast and Slow.
    Francesco C. Billari.
    Population and Development Review. March 29, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 1, Page 9-30, March 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nScientific ideas on the human population tend to be rooted in a “slow demography” paradigm, which emphasizes an inertial, predictable, self‐contained view of population dynamics, mostly dependent on fertility and mortality. Yet, demography can also move fast. At the country level, it is crucial to empirically assess how fast demography moves by taking migratory movements into account, in addition to fertility and mortality. We discuss these ideas and present new estimates of the speed of population change, that is, country‐level population turnover rates, as well as the share of turnover due to migration, for all countries in the world with available data between 1990 and 2020. Population turnover is inversely related to population size and development, and migratory movements tend to become important factors in shaping demography for both small and highly developed countries. Longitudinally, we analyze annual turnover data for Italy and Germany, documenting the changing speed of population change over time and its determinants. Accepting the “fast and slow” demography perspective has several implications for science and policy, which we discuss.\n"]
    March 29, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12464   open full text
  • Changes in Literacy Skills as Cohorts Age.
    Claudia Reiter.
    Population and Development Review. March 29, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 1, Page 217-246, March 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nAs our societies transform into knowledge societies, skills are playing an ever‐increasing role in life. Despite recent efforts to consistently measure adult skills across countries, a challenge remains to understand how skills evolve over time and what the main drivers behind these changes are. By applying demographic methods to estimate the development of skills over the life course, this paper presents the reconstruction of empirical adult literacy test results along cohort lines by age, sex, and educational attainment for 44 countries for the period 1970–2015. Results suggest significant heterogeneity in the pattern of changes in literacy skills with age, reflecting the differential exposure to cognitive stimulation over the life course and suggesting that the development of skills in a country is also the consequence of a changing composition of its population. Gender, however, was found to have hardly any effect on how literacy skills evolve between the ages of 15 and 65. On the aggregate level, findings reveal considerable differences between countries—regarding both the level of skills and their development over time. Overall, it was found that massive educational expansions happening globally in the recent past only partly resulted in a corresponding rise in skills.\n"]
    March 29, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12457   open full text
  • Correlates of Contemporary Gender Preference for Children in South Korea.
    Giyeon Seo, Tanya Koropeckyj‐Cox, Sanghag Kim.
    Population and Development Review. March 29, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 1, Page 161-188, March 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nThis study explores gender preference for children in South Korea, where a strong, traditional son preference has recently shifted to a greater preference for daughters or no preference. Using data from the 2008 Panel Study on Korean Children (PSKC; N = 1,836) and 2012 Korean General Social Survey (KGSS; N = 1,355), we examined social and attitudinal correlates of child gender preference, including kinship patterns, perceived prospects for the future, and attitudes about the value of children, including potentially gendered expectations. Logistic regressions of child gender preference showed that mothers receiving support from maternal grandparents reported lower son preference (PSKC). Attitudes about both the instrumental (social, economic) and emotional value of children were also related to son preference. In the KGSS, individuals who preferred sons reported more traditional gender attitudes, positive future prospects, and greater expectations of help in old age and were more likely to be men, older, rural, or Buddhist. There were few differences between those who favored a daughter compared to no preference. Overall, the decline in son preference appears to reflect shifts in intergenerational relations and societal changes that have redefined the meaning and value of children in the context of economic uncertainties, very low fertility, and population aging.\n"]
    March 29, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12458   open full text
  • Income Inequality and Increasing Dispersion of the Transition to First Birth in the Global South.
    Andrés F. Castro Torres, Ewa Batyra, Mikko Myrskylä.
    Population and Development Review. March 29, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 1, Page 189-215, March 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nThe relationship between levels of social and economic inequality and demographic changes remains poorly documented, particularly for fertility. Covering a period from 1986 to 2018, this paper documents a positive country‐level association between income inequality and the dispersion of first birth schedules among women from 88 countries of the Global South. This association is driven by a dual dynamic of the decreasing mean age at first birth among a shrinking group of women who transition to motherhood early, and the increasing mean age at first birth and rising heterogeneity in the timing of childbearing among a group of first birth delayers. We show that this association is strongest in countries where the total fertility rate is below 2.5 children per woman. We argue that differential opportunities for accessing quality education, formal labor markets, and migration are potential drivers of the rising heterogeneity in the ages at which women transition to childbearing. These results highlight the importance of examining societal and demographic processes jointly and clearly indicate that more and better‐quality data on social and economic inequality are needed.\n"]
    March 29, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12451   open full text
  • Six Ways Population Change Will Affect the Global Economy.
    Andrew Mason, Ronald Lee, members of the NTA Network.
    Population and Development Review. March 29, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 1, Page 51-73, March 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nNew estimates of economic flows by age combined with population projections show that in the coming decades (1) global GDP growth could be slower by about 1 percentage point per year, declining more sharply than population growth; (2) GDP will shift toward sub‐Saharan Africa more than population trends suggest; (3) living standards of working‐age adults may be squeezed by high spending on children and seniors; (4) changing population age distribution will raise living standards in many lower‐income nations; (5) changing economic life cycles will amplify the economic effects of population aging in many higher income economies; and (6) population aging will likely push public debt, private assets, and perhaps productivity higher. Population change will have profound implications for national, regional, and global economies.\n"]
    March 29, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12469   open full text
  • Global and National Declines in Life Expectancy: An End‐of‐2021 Assessment.
    Patrick Heuveline.
    Population and Development Review. March 29, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 1, Page 31-50, March 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nTimely, high‐quality mortality data have allowed for assessments of the impact of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) on life expectancies in upper‐middle‐ and high‐income countries. Extant data, though imperfect, suggest that the bulk of the pandemic‐induced mortality might have occurred elsewhere. This article reports on changes in life expectancies around the world as far as they can be estimated from the evidence available at the end of 2021. The global life expectancy appears to have declined by 0.92 years between 2019 and 2020 and by another 0.72 years between 2020 and 2021, but the decline seems to have ended during the last quarter of 2021. Uncertainty about its exact size aside, this represents the first decline in global life expectancy since 1950, the first year for which a global estimate is available from the United Nations. Annual declines in life expectancy (from a 12‐month period to the next) appear to have exceeded two years at some point before the end of 2021 in at least 50 countries. Since 1950, annual declines of that magnitude had only been observed on rare occasions, such as Cambodia in the 1970s, Rwanda in the 1990s, and possibly some sub‐Saharan African nations at the peak of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) pandemic.\n"]
    March 29, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12477   open full text
  • Globalization and Gender‐Specific Patterns in Individual Fertility Decisions.
    Andreea Alexandra Piriu.
    Population and Development Review. March 29, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 1, Page 129-160, March 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nIn the German post‐reunification context dominated by economic uncertainty and structural change, this paper studies the effects of import shocks from China on the fertility decisions of individuals working in the German manufacturing sector between 1995 and 2016. While focusing on trade shocks related to Chinese imported goods, the paper explores individual fertility via the labor market outcomes of manufacturing workers, roughly a fifth of German employment. I investigate the gender‐specific effects of Chinese import competition on individual fertility and explain the channels mediating each of them. I find that globalization affects overall fertility negatively, but the effect is positive for women and negative for men. Results indicate a reduction in the employment opportunity of individuals, an increase in marginal employment and higher economic insecurity. There is a substitution effect in the labor supply of women, here prevalently concentrated in low‐technology sectors: as female earnings fall and their opportunity cost of work is lower, the prospect of having children possibly becomes a more rewarding alternative. Given concerns over low fertility in Germany, findings are particularly important for understanding the German social and economic structure that enabled the country's post‐reunification transformation but also allowed heavy labor market segmentation and atypical work.\n"]
    March 29, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12453   open full text
  • Trends and Patterns of Global Refugee Migration.
    Sonja Fransen, Hein Haas.
    Population and Development Review. March 29, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 1, Page 97-128, March 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nThis paper studies long‐term trends and patterns in global refugee migration. We explore the intensity, spread, and distance of refugee migration at a global, regional, and country level between 1951 and 2018. The analysis did not detect a long‐term increase in the global intensity of refugee migration. Primarily depending on levels of conflict, refugee numbers have fluctuated at levels of between 0.1 and 0.3 percent of the world population. Apparent increases in numbers of the globally displaced are driven by the inclusion of populations and countries that were previously excluded from the data. While refugee populations continue to be concentrated in countries with low‐to‐medium income levels, the analysis reveals several geographic shifts in refugee migration. Refugees tend to come from a shrinking number of origin countries and move to an increasing variety of destination countries. This trend seems to reflect a concentration of recurrent conflict cycles in a relatively small number of countries and a parallel increase in the number of safe destinations. Although the vast majority of refugees remain near to origin countries, the average distance between origin and destination countries has increased over time, presumably linked to the greater ease of travel and migration‐facilitating networks.\n"]
    March 29, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12456   open full text
  • Refugee Inflow and Labor Market Outcomes in Brazil: Evidence from the Venezuelan Exodus.
    Hanbyul Ryu, Jayash Paudel.
    Population and Development Review. March 29, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 48, Issue 1, Page 75-96, March 2022. ", "\nAbstract\nThe impact of a large influx of refugees (or migrants) on the local labor market has long been an important topic among economists. In this study, we investigate the economic impact of the Venezuelan migrant inflow on labor market outcomes in Brazil. We employ the synthetic control method to exploit the concentration of a large inflow of Venezuelans in the Brazilian state of Roraima, which shares a land border with Venezuela. Results indicate that the inflow of Venezuelan refugees lowered labor force participation and employment rate but did not have a significant impact on hourly wages in Brazil. Our estimates show that labor force participation among less educated individuals decreased by a larger magnitude, while females lost jobs in informal and self‐employed sectors. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the short‐term economic consequences of hosting refugees in developing countries.\n"]
    March 29, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12452   open full text
  • Smith or Malthus? A Sea‐Change in the Concept of a Population.
    Philip Kreager.
    Population and Development Review. March 28, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThis two‐part article offers a critical appreciation of Malthus's political economy of population to mark the bi‐centenary of his Principles of Political Economy (1820). His general economic theory emerged after the first four editions of his famous Essay, in three steps: (1) a rapidly produced series of essays on tariffs, rents, and capital mal‐distribution (1814–1815); (2) consequent revision of the economic basis of the Essay (1817); and (3) formal statement in the Principles. His main economic writings thus belong to a later, more mature period of his work, and their evolution is of particular interest for demography on three counts. One is that his rethinking was stimulated directly by the need to rectify serious deficiencies he had come to recognize in the Essay. Second, this makes his later thought of more direct interest to today's study of population and development. Third, all three steps began in, and were sustained by, dialogue with Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations. The dialogue led to further thinking beyond the Essay, with major innovative developments. Comparison to the Smithian baseline shows (1) that the familiar stereotype of Malthus as prophet of population‐laden disaster is seriously incomplete; and (2) capital distribution replaces population distribution as a mechanism of growth, inducing a radical change in the concept of population.\n"]
    March 28, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12488   open full text
  • Supply‐Side Versus Demand‐Side Unmet Need: Implications for Family Planning Programs.
    Leigh Senderowicz, Nicole Maloney.
    Population and Development Review. March 18, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nDespite its central importance to global family planning, the “unmet need for contraception” metric is frequently misinterpreted. Often conflated with a lack of access, misinterpretation of what unmet need means and how it is measured has important implications for family planning programs. We review previous examinations of unmet need, with a focus on the roles of access and demand for contraception, as well as the role of population control in shaping the indicator's priorities. We suggest that disaggregating unmet need into “demand‐side unmet need” (stemming from lack of demand) and “supply‐side unmet need” (stemming from lack of access) could allow current data to be leveraged into a more person‐centered understanding of contraceptive need. We use Demographic and Health Survey data from seven sub‐Saharan African countries to generate a proof‐of‐concept, dividing women into unmet need categories based on reason for contraceptive nonuse. We perform sensitivity analyses with varying conceptions of access and disaggregate by education and marital status. We find that demand‐side unmet need far exceeds supply‐side unmet need in all scenarios. Focusing on supply‐side rather than overall unmet need is an imperfect but productive step toward person‐centered measurement, while more sweeping changes to family planning measurement are still required.\n"]
    March 18, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12478   open full text
  • Securitization and Forced Migration in Kenya: A Policy Transition from Integration to Encampment.
    Billy Agwanda.
    Population and Development Review. March 17, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThis article explores forced migration and policy transition in East Africa using the case study of Kenya—a key regional destination for forced migrants. Using a descriptive and historical approach to highlight the dynamics of forced migration (1990–2021), the study emphasizes on what factors underlie the change of policy from integration to encampment. The author argues that central to this transition are discourses on national security, domestic, and regional politics. Using the theory of securitization, the study finds that assumptive blames on forced migrants expose them to greater vulnerabilities, while failure to recognize the challenges facing host states also undermines the management of forced migrants. The author concludes that the principles of global cosmopolitanism should underlie response and that when critical national interests necessitate stricter limitations on the extent to which forced migrants can enjoy certain rights and freedoms, then the international community must strive to play a greater role to minimize risks to both host nations and forced migrants.\n"]
    March 17, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12483   open full text
  • Raising Awareness About the Risk of Irregular Migration: Quasi‐Experimental Evidence from Guinea.
    Jasper Tjaden, Horace Gninafon.
    Population and Development Review. March 07, 2022
    ["Population and Development Review, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nIn response to mounting evidence of harm inflicted on irregular migrants along their journeys from West Africa to Europe, international organizations, civil society organizations, and governments have scaled up campaigns as a tool for raising awareness about the risks of irregular migration. Campaigns aim to counter misinformation by smugglers and facilitate safe migration decisions. Despite the growing number of interventions, there is limited empirical evidence on the impact and effectiveness of such campaigns. Based on a difference‐in‐difference design, this study investigates the effect of a mobile cinema and community discussion intervention on the perceptions, knowledge, and intentions of potential irregular migrants in Northern Guinea in 2019. The results show that potential migrants who participated in events were significantly more likely to show awareness gains and less likely to report high intentions to migrate irregularly. While the relative importance of risk perceptions and their impact on migration flows remain unclear, the findings provide evidence supporting the assumption that risk awareness can be a relevant factor in the decision‐making process of potential irregular migrants. While campaigns may be an effective tool in certain contexts, effect sizes highlight the need for policymakers to keep realistic expectations.\n"]
    March 07, 2022   doi: 10.1111/padr.12468   open full text
  • Tropical Storms and Temporary Migration in Vietnam.
    Michael Berlemann, Thi Xuyen Tran.
    Population and Development Review. December 29, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 4, Page 1107-1142, December 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nIn this paper, we provide the first household‐level empirical multievent study of temporary internal migration as a consequence of tropical storms. In order to do, so we combine three waves of the Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey with geo‐referenced tropical cyclone data from the Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. Based on the resulting panel dataset, we study temporary emigration patterns evolving in the aftermath of occurring storms in the sample communes. We find robust empirical evidence in favor of a significant push effect on temporary migration. Occurring storms increase the likelihood that a household sends members to other regions in Vietnam. Storms also tend to increase the number of absent household members and absence time. Moreover, we show that occurring storms increase both seasonal and long‐term absences.\n"]
    December 29, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12455   open full text
  • The Impacts of Temperature Shocks on Birth Weight in Vietnam.
    Kien Le, My Nguyen.
    Population and Development Review. December 29, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 4, Page 1025-1047, December 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nThis paper investigates the extent to which in utero exposure to temperature shocks affects birth weight outcomes in Vietnam. Exploiting the variations across districts and conception timing within districts, we show that a one standard deviation increase in temperature relative to the local norm (approximately 0.52°C) during the first trimester of pregnancy reduces the child's weight at birth by 67 g or 2.2 percent. Our heterogeneity analysis suggests that infants living in rural areas, born to poor and low‐educated mothers are especially vulnerable to temperature shocks.\n"]
    December 29, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12428   open full text
  • Public Health and Armed Conflict: Immunization in Times of Systemic Disruptions.
    Gudrun Østby, Olga Shemyakina, Andreas Forø Tollefsen, Henrik Urdal, Marijke Verpoorten.
    Population and Development Review. December 29, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 4, Page 1143-1177, December 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nArmed conflicts are a concern for human development and public health and represent a major impediment for realizing Sustainable Development Goal #3: to ensure healthy lives and promote well‐being for all at all ages. Vaccination programs can be highly politicized and subjected to major security constraints in war zones, reducing their effectiveness. This article studies how armed conflict impacts immunization rates among children, combining two large datasets. We use health data for 15 conflict‐affected countries in sub‐Saharan Africa, including multiple Demographic and Health Survey rounds for most. We exploit the fact that age‐appropriate vaccinations should take place in the child's first year of life and compare children aged one to five with varying degrees of (local) conflict exposure in their first year of life within the same countries and communities. We differentiate between the effects of local and country‐level exposure to conflict on childhood immunization rates. The regression results show that conflict has a nonmonotonic effect on vaccination rates with minor (major) conflicts being associated with higher (lower) full immunization rates. We argue that in the case of minor conflicts, local‐level health care access drives the results, whereas for major conflicts it is mainly national channels that drive the result.\n"]
    December 29, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12450   open full text
  • The “Sandwich Generation” Revisited: Global Demographic Drivers of Care Time Demands.
    Diego Alburez‐Gutierrez, Carl Mason, Emilio Zagheni.
    Population and Development Review. December 29, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 4, Page 997-1023, December 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nGenerational overlap affects the care time demands on parents and grandparents worldwide. Here, we present the first global estimates of the experience of simultaneously having frail older parents and young children (“sandwichness”) or young grandchildren (“grandsandwichness”) for the 1970–2040 cohorts, using demographic methods and microsimulations. We find that sandwichness is more prevalent in the Global South—for example, almost twice as prevalent in sub‐Saharan Africa as it is in Europe for the 1970 cohort—but is expected to decline globally by one‐third between 1970 and 2040. The Global North might have reached a peak in the simultaneous care time demands from multiple generations but the duration of the grandsandwich state will increase by up to one year in Africa and Asia. This increasing generational overlap implies more care time demands over the entire adult life course, but also opens up an opportunity for the full potential of grandparenthood to materialize.\n"]
    December 29, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12436   open full text
  • Economic Inequality and Divergence in Family Formation in Sub‐Saharan Africa.
    Kirsten Stoebenau, Sangeetha Madhavan, Emily Smith‐Greenaway, Heide Jackson.
    Population and Development Review. December 29, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 4, Page 887-912, December 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nEconomic inequality has been rising in many sub‐Saharan African countries alongside rapid changes to union and family formation. In high‐income countries marked by rising inequality, union and family formation practices have diverged across socioeconomic statuses, with intergenerational social and health consequences for the disadvantaged. In this study, we address whether there is also evidence of demographic divergence in low‐income settings. Specifically, we model the age at first marriage and first birth by socioeconomic status groups for women born between 1960 and 1989 using Demographic and Health Survey data from 12 sub‐Saharan African countries where economic inequality levels are relatively high or rising. We argue that economic and sociocultural factors may both serve to increasingly delay marriage and childbearing for the elite as compared to others in the context of rising inequality. We find emerging social stratification in marriage and childbearing, and demonstrate that this demographic divergence is driven by the elites who are increasingly marrying and having children at later ages, with near stagnation in the age at first marriage and birth among the remaining majority. We urge further research at the intersection of socioeconomic and demographic inequality to inform necessary policy levers and curtail negative social and health consequences.\n"]
    December 29, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12443   open full text
  • Where Do People Live Longer in Russia in the 21st Century? Life Expectancy across Urban and Rural areas.
    Aleksey Shchur, Vladimir M. Shkolnikov, Sergey Timonin, Evgeny Andreev, David A. Leon.
    Population and Development Review. December 29, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 4, Page 1049-1074, December 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nThe twenty‐first century marked the beginning of rapid health improvements in Russia. In the late 2000s and the 2010s, there was already a moderate decrease in inter‐oblast mortality disparities, with the exception of the growing life expectancy (LE) advantage of Moscow and Saint Petersburg. We have used newly available data to explore LE changes from 2003–2005 to 2015–2017 and determinants of LE differences across settlements of different types and population sizes. We distinguished between three major segments of the LE distribution: Moscow and Saint Petersburg at the top, large‐ and medium‐sized cities in the middle, and smaller urban and rural areas lagging behind. The LE differences among these three groups increased, but the within‐group differences decreased. The gaps between bigger cities and the “periphery” within oblasts grew, and this part of the total dispersion had increased substantially by 2015–2017. Education, together with population size, explained 62 percent (for females) and 67 percent (for males) of LE variation across 292 geographic units in 2015–2017. Our results suggest that slower health progress in small urban and rural areas is an important obstacle to further mortality reduction at the national level and is a matter of public health concern.\n"]
    December 29, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12437   open full text
  • Can Policies Stall the Fertility Fall? A Systematic Review of the (Quasi‐) Experimental Literature.
    Janna Bergsvik, Agnes Fauske, Rannveig Kaldager Hart.
    Population and Development Review. December 29, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 4, Page 913-964, December 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nIn the course of the twentieth century, social scientists and policy analysts have produced a large volume of literature on whether policies boost fertility. This paper describes the results of a systematic review of the literature on the effects of policy on fertility since 1970 in Europe, the United States, Canada, and Australia. Empirical studies were selected through extensive systematic searches, including studies using an experimental or quasi‐experimental design. Thirty‐five studies were included, covering reforms of parental leave, childcare, health services, and universal child transfers. In line with previous reviews, we find that childcare expansions increase completed fertility, while increased cash transfers have temporary effects. New evidence on parental leave expansions, particularly from Central Europe, suggests larger effects than previously established. High‐earning couples benefit more from parental leave expansions, while expanding childcare programs can reduce social inequalities on other domains. Subsidizing assisted reproductive treatments shows some promise of increasing birth rates for women over the age of 35. Countries that to date have limited support for families can build on solid evidence if they choose to expand these programs.\n"]
    December 29, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12431   open full text
  • Declining Family Support, Changing Income Sources, and Older People Poverty: Lessons from South Korea.
    Inhoe Ku, Wonjin Lee, Seoyun Lee.
    Population and Development Review. December 29, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 4, Page 965-996, December 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nThis study decomposes the changes in income distribution among older adults between 1996 and 2016 in South Korea. We found that income distribution among older adults worsened between 1996 and 2010 and then improved between 2010 and 2016. From 1996 to 2010, the rapid change in living arrangements was the most powerful contributor to the worsening income distribution. The decrease in market income also contributed to reducing the median income and increasing poverty. Yet, expanded public transfers cancelled out most of the negative effects of the decrease in market income. From 2010 to 2016, the change in living arrangement still significantly decreased median income and increased inequality and poverty. The increase in market income considerably contributed to the increase in median income and the decrease in poverty. Above all, the rise in public transfer income became the most influential contributor to the increase in median income and the decrease in inequality and poverty.\n"]
    December 29, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12442   open full text
  • Health Shocks, Recovery, and the First Thousand Days: The Effect of the Second World War on Height Growth in Japanese Children.
    Eric B. Schneider, Kota Ogasawara, Tim J. Cole.
    Population and Development Review. December 29, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 4, Page 1075-1105, December 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nThis article uses the health shock on Japanese civilians of the Second World War to understand the effects of health shocks at different developmental stages on children's long‐run growth pattern and to test whether recovery is possible after an early‐life health shock. We construct a prefecture‐level dataset of mean heights of boys and girls aged 6–19 from 1929 to 2015. Linking the heights recorded at different ages for the same birth cohort, we measure a counterfactual causal effect of the health shocks during the Second World War on the cohort growth pattern of children. We find that the war effect was greatest for cohorts exposed to the war in late childhood and adolescence: these cohorts were 1.7–3.0 cm shorter at adulthood and had delayed pubertal growth and slower maturation than they would have had if the war had never occurred. However, there were no persistent health penalties for children exposed to the war in early life, suggesting that catch‐up growth was possible as health conditions improved after the war. These findings challenge the thousand‐days consensus that children cannot recover from nutritional shocks in early life and indicate that adolescence is a sensitive period for health shocks.\n"]
    December 29, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12444   open full text
  • Son Preference, Gender Discrimination, and Missing Girls in Rural Spain, 1750–1950.
    Francisco J. Marco‐Gracia, Francisco J. Beltrán Tapia.
    Population and Development Review. September 24, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 3, Page 665-689, September 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nRelying on longitudinal microdata from a Spanish rural region between 1750 and 1950 (almost 35,000 life courses), this article provides evidence that discriminatory practices affected sex‐specific mortality during infancy and childhood. Although it is likely that families also discriminated against girls during the first year of life, female excess mortality was especially visible in the 1–5 age group. While breastfeeding seems to have temporarily mitigated the effects of gender discrimination, sex‐specific mortality rates behaved very differently once children were weaned. Parents, therefore, prioritized boys during infancy and childhood in the allocation of food and/or care in order to enhance their survival chances.\n"]
    September 24, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12406   open full text
  • Urbanization Is No Longer Driven by Migration in Low‐ and Middle‐Income Countries (1985–2015).
    Ashira Menashe‐Oren, Philippe Bocquier.
    Population and Development Review. September 24, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 3, Page 639-663, September 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nAcross the world, populations have transitioned to inhabiting urban spaces, and in low‐ and middle‐income countries the proportion of people living in cities is expected to continue to increase. Anticipation of this fundamental process calls for a better understanding of the demographic factors that drive the urban transition. By indirectly estimating the joint contribution of migration and administrative reclassification to urban transition in 129 countries using urban and rural population by age and sex data available from the United Nations over 1985–2015, we find that differences in natural increase between the rural and urban sectors explain most of the urbanization over the 30‐year period examined. Over the urban transition, the role of migration and reclassification declines and becomes negligible. Despite data limitations, we confirm that it is misleading to view migration as fueling urbanization in low‐ and middle‐income countries.\n"]
    September 24, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12407   open full text
  • Cohort and Period Effects as Explanations for Declining Dementia Trends and Cognitive Aging.
    Sean A. P. Clouston, Graciela Muniz Terrera, Joseph Lee Rodgers, Patrick O'Keefe, Frank D. Mann, Nathan A. Lewis, Linda Wänström, Jeffrey Kaye, Scott M. Hofer.
    Population and Development Review. September 24, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 3, Page 611-637, September 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nStudies have reported that the age‐adjusted incidence of cognitive impairment and dementia have decreased over the past two decades. Aging is the predominant risk factor for Alzheimer's disease and related dementias and for neurocognitive decline. However, aging alone cannot explain changes in the overall age‐adjusted incidence of dementia. The objective of this position paper was to describe the potential for cohort and period effects in cognitive decline and incidence of dementia. Cohort effects have long been reported in demographic literature, but starting in the early 1980s researchers began reporting large historical cohort trends in cognitive function. At the same time, period effects have emerged in the form of economic factors and stressors in early and midlife that may result in reduced cognitive dysfunction. Recognizing that aging individuals today were once children and adolescents and that research has clearly noted that childhood cognitive performance are associated with old‐age cognitive performance, this review proposes the need to connect these cohort effects with differences in late‐life functioning.\n"]
    September 24, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12409   open full text
  • A Sequence‐Analysis Approach to the Study of the Transition to Adulthood in Low‐ and Middle‐Income Countries.
    Luca Maria Pesando, Nicola Barban, Maria Sironi, Frank F. Furstenberg.
    Population and Development Review. September 24, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 3, Page 719-747, September 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nThis study investigates whether young people in low‐ and middle‐income countries (LMICs) have experienced processes of destandardization of the life course similar to those observed in high‐income societies. We provide two contributions to the relevant literature. First, we use data from 263 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) across 69 LMICs, offering the richest comparative account to date of women's transition to adulthood (TTA) patterns in the developing world. In so doing, we adopt sequence analysis and shift the focus from individual life‐course events—namely first sexual intercourse, first union, and first birth—to a visually appealing approach that allows us to describe interrelations among events. By focusing on the analysis of trajectories rather than the occurrence of single events, the study provides an in‐depth focus on the timing of events, time intervals between events, and how experiencing (or not) one event might have consequences for subsequent markers in the TTA in cross‐national comparative perspective. Second, we identify clusters of TTA and explore their changes across cohorts by region and household location of residence (rural vs. urban). We document significant differences by macro‐regions, yet relative stability across cohorts. We interpret the latter as suggestive of cultural specificities that make the TTA resistant to change and slow to converge across regions, if converging at all. Also, we find that much of the difference across cluster typologies ensues from variation related to when the transition begins (early vs. late), rather than from the duration between events, which tends to be uniformly quick across three out of four clusters.\n"]
    September 24, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12425   open full text
  • The Introduction of Bismarck's Social Security System and its Effects on Marriage and Fertility in Prussia.
    Timothy W. Guinnane, Jochen Streb.
    Population and Development Review. September 24, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 3, Page 749-780, September 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nEconomists have long argued that introducing social insurance will reduce fertility. The hypothesis relies on standard models: if children are desirable in part because they provide security in case of disability or old age, then State programs that provide insurance against these events should induce couples to substitute away from children in the allocation of wealth. We test this claim using the introduction of social insurance in Germany in the period 1881–1910. Bismarck's social insurance scheme had three pillars: health insurance, workplace accident insurance, and an old‐age pension. Earlier studies typically focus on the pension alone; we consider all three pillars. We find that Bismarck's social insurance system affected fertility overall only via its effects on the incentive to marry. The old‐age insurance by itself tended to reduce marriages, but the health and accident insurance components had the opposite effect. For people exposed to all three pillars of social insurance, the two effects cancelled each other and the aggregate effect on fertility was muted.\nfertility transition; economics; social insurance\n"]
    September 24, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12426   open full text
  • Rising Global Levels of Intergenerational Coresidence Among Young Adults.
    Albert Esteve, David S. Reher.
    Population and Development Review. September 24, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 3, Page 691-717, September 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nUsing census and survey microdata from 69 countries worldwide, in this paper we document levels of intergenerational coresidence over the life course and examine changes in recent decades. We present evidence of a generalized pattern of increase in intergenerational coresidence during the initial decade of this century. This is most evident among people aged 20–30 and, at least in regions such as Europe and North America and in Latin America and the Caribbean, affects women as much or more than it does men. Rates of increase are fastest in Asia (especially among men), robust in Europe and Latin America, and relatively slow in Africa. This shift is occurring in a variety of demographic, economic, and cultural contexts and appears to run counter to expectations that intergenerational coresidence would gradually decline with modernization and cultural change. We discuss the extent to which these results challenge existing interpretations of the role of the family in contemporary society.\n"]
    September 24, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12427   open full text
  • Nature, Politics, and the Traumas of Europe.
    Massimo Livi‐Bacci.
    Population and Development Review. September 24, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 3, Page 579-609, September 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nNature has been the major source of demographic shocks until the nineteenth century, after which Politics has gradually become the main factor of catastrophic traumas. During the first part of the past century, war, violence, forced migration, man‐made famines, and the epidemics unchained by them were responsible for tens of millions of deaths. They left deep scars in the survivors, distorted the age structure, altered the equilibrium between the sexes and between generations, and affected in multiple ways the continental European demographic system, including the geographical distribution of the population.  A quantitative assessment of the victims of these Politics‐driven traumas is here attempted, as is a first exploration of the political conviction that drove them: that populations and their number, structure, and geographical location, could be manipulated by the state. The collapse of multinational multiethnic, multicultural, and multilingual empires, however illiberal, led to the identification of the state with the nation, and of the nation with an ethnic group, and bred an intolerant hyperethnicism, culminating in ferocious episodes of ethnic cleansing and genocide whose consequences resonate to this day in Europe and beyond.\n"]
    September 24, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12429   open full text
  • An Enduring Institution? Child Fostering in Sub‐Saharan Africa.
    Cassandra Cotton.
    Population and Development Review. September 07, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nChild fostering has been documented over time in many parts of sub‐Saharan Africa. We know little, however, about how the prevalence of fostering differs across countries and broad regions, nor about how fostering—and its predictors—has changed within countries over time. To explore prevalence, trends, and predictors of child fostering, I leverage Demographic and Health Survey data of mothers of children aged 0–15 from 139 surveys in 36 countries collected between 1986 and 2019, representing all regions of sub‐Saharan Africa. Results suggest striking variation in the prevalence of contemporary fostering, ranging from 11.5 percent of mothers in Burundi to 45.7 percent in Namibia in the most recent survey. Fostering trends have fluctuated over time in the majority of countries, but have remained broadly stable, with random and fixed‐effects models indicating that the key correlates across and within countries over time have remained stable, with the prevalence of never‐married motherhood playing a key role in fostering. Together, results suggest child fostering remains an enduring institution in family life throughout sub‐Saharan Africa.\n"]
    September 07, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12439   open full text
  • How Armed Conflict Influences Migration.
    Nathalie E. Williams, Michelle L. O'Brien, Xiaozheng Yao.
    Population and Development Review. July 08, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThe literature on migration during armed conflict is abundant. Yet, the questions of highest policy relevance—how many people will leave because of a conflict and how many more people will be living outside a country because of a conflict—are not well addressed. This article explores these questions using an agent‐based model, a computational simulation that allows us to connect armed conflict to individual behavioral changes and then to aggregate migration flows and migrant stocks. With detailed data from Nepal during the 1996–2006 conflict, we find that out‐migration rates actually decrease on average, largely due to a prior decrease in return migration. Regardless, the stock of migrants outside the country increases modestly during that period. Broadly, this study demonstrates that population dynamics are inherent to and necessary for understanding conflict‐related migration. We conclude with a discussion of the generalizability and policy implications of this study.\n"]
    July 08, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12408   open full text
  • Spurring Economic Growth through Human Development: Research Results and Guidance for Policymakers.
    David E. Bloom, Alex Khoury, Vadim Kufenko, Klaus Prettner.
    Population and Development Review. July 01, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 2, Page 377-409, June 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nEducation, general health, and reproductive health are key indicators of human development. Investments in these domains can also promote economic growth. This paper argues for human development–related investments based on (1) a theoretical economic growth model with poverty traps, (2) a literature review of evidence that different human development–related investments can promote growth, and (3) own empirical analyses of 1980–2015 data that aim to estimate the relative contribution of different human development indicators to economic growth across heterogeneous growth regimes. Our results suggest the following associations: (1) a one‐child decrease in the total fertility rate corresponds to a 2 percentage point (pp) increase in annual per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the short run (five years) and 0.5 pp higher annual growth in the mid‐run to long run (35 years), (2) a 10 percent increase in life expectancy at birth corresponds to a 1 pp increase in annual per capita GDP growth in the short run and 0.4 pp higher growth in the mid‐run to long run, and (3) a one‐year increase in average educational attainment corresponds to a 0.7 pp increase in annual growth in the short run and 0.3 pp higher growth in the mid‐run to long run. By contrast, infrastructure proxies are not significantly associated with subsequent growth in any of the models estimated.\n"]
    July 01, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12389   open full text
  • A Tale of Two Villages: Development and Household Change in India.
    Etienne Breton.
    Population and Development Review. July 01, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 2, Page 347-375, June 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nDespite decades of sweeping socioeconomic and cultural transformations, extended households remain widespread in many regions of the world. The mechanisms explaining this persistence are not well‐established. The research reported on here investigates these mechanisms in India, where the prevalence of stem and joint households ranks among the highest in the world. Combining demographic and ethnographic data, this study compares processes of household change in two villages in India's Deccan Plateau. Results highlight key pathways by which development can contribute to both the decline and persistence of joint households. In the first village, joint households have become virtually extinct in recent years. Analyses suggest that frequent labor migrations, depopulation, and slow economic growth largely explain this decline. In the second village, there was a recent increase in the prevalence of joint households. The expansion of irrigation created economic opportunities in farming and other industries. Many young men now jointly invest in land with their father and brother(s) instead of purchasing separate houses. This suggests that agricultural improvements and the revitalization of the village economy have stimulated the formation of joint households. In both villages, ethnographic data reveal the ambivalent preferences and practical considerations underpinning residential decisions.\n"]
    July 01, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12401   open full text
  • Is Migration a Learned Behavior? Understanding the Impact of Past Migration on Future Migration.
    Aude Bernard, Francisco Perales.
    Population and Development Review. July 01, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 2, Page 449-474, June 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nDespite growing efforts to conceptualize residential mobility and migration as long‐term trajectories, because of methodological challenges and the lack of adequate data, most empirical studies have resorted to examining year‐to‐year changes in place of residence. As a result, the impact of past migration experiences on future migration behavior remains poorly understood. To shed light on time interdependencies in individual migration trajectories, this paper examines associations between past moves and subsequent migration behavior from birth to age 50, distinguishing between (i) intraregional mobility, interregional migration and international migration and (ii) return and onward moves. By applying multinominal regression models to retrospective life history data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we demonstrate that the decision to migrate at a particular point in time is embedded within a wider migration history that started in childhood. However, we also find that the effect of past moves diminishes as individuals progress in their migration career. These findings hold for intraregional, interregional and international moves. Altogether, these findings lend support to our theoretical proposition that migration is a learned behavior and highlight the importance of accounting for time interdependency in individuals’ migration trajectories.\n"]
    July 01, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12387   open full text
  • The Aftermath of the Demographic Transition in the Developed World: Interpreting Enduring Disparities in Reproductive Behavior.
    David S. Reher.
    Population and Development Review. July 01, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 2, Page 475-503, June 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nDisparities in reproductive behavior visible in the developed world are a long‐term implication of the demographic transition. While present at the very outset of the transition, their effects are most visible once childhood mortality loses its relevance as a key constraint on reproduction. These disparities are rooted in the type of society that emerged as the result of the way the historical role of the family and individual in society interacted with social and economic modernization processes characterizing the entire century, but especially visible during the rapid acceleration of social and cultural changes after mid‐century. The way these new societies function provides a necessary backdrop for understanding fertility in a world of individual reproductive choice and competing goals. The result is that traditionally individualistic societies tend to fare better than societies where family loyalties are and have always been a cornerstone of society. Disparities in fertility are rooted in the incentives and disincentives for reproduction present in society, are unlikely to disappear anytime soon and are leading to very different rates of aging in the developed world.\n"]
    July 01, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12266   open full text
  • Changing Gender Gaps in the Timing of First Union Formation and Sexual Initiation in Sub‐Saharan Africa.
    Ewa Batyra, Hans‐Peter Kohler, Frank F. Furstenberg.
    Population and Development Review. July 01, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 2, Page 289-322, June 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nGender differences in union formation and sexual initiation in sub‐Saharan Africa remain poorly documented, in large part due to a scarcity of research on the transition to adulthood among men. We adopt a novel perspective on this topic by examining gender gaps in the ages at first union and sex in 24 countries, focusing on measures of central tendency and dispersion. Gender differences in age at first union decreased, driven by postponement among women with relatively late union formation. Yet, due to concurrent persistence of early unions among a sizable portion of women's populations, within‐country heterogeneity in ages at first union increased substantially among women. Thus, although forces responsible for earlier union formation among women than men are weakening, these changes affect population strata unequally. Gender differences in age at first sex decreased to a lesser extent, but in some countries, they disappeared or reversed, uncovering a shift in the relationship between gender and timing of sexual initiation. Changes in union formation and sexual initiation are more heterogeneous across countries among men than women, indicating that these processes among men are more context specific. We show importance of studying men's behavior and exploring heterogeneity in union formation and sexual initiation both within and between populations of women and men.\n"]
    July 01, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12405   open full text
  • Scars of Conflict in the Population Structure of Iraqi Kurdistan: An Unfortunate Cohort and Its “Fortunate” Survivors.
    Sinan Zeyneloglu, Olga Aymerich, Gohdar Mzuri, Ibrahim Sirkeci.
    Population and Development Review. July 01, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 2, Page 323-346, June 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nUsing the 2017 Demographic Survey of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, older Iraqi censuses, the 2016 Census of Iran, and reports on displacement in Iraq, we expose the male deficit in the 1958–1962 birth cohort of Iraqi Kurdistan over time, probe its origins, and illustrate its effects on the rest of the population while relating these to the historical context of the exodus of the Kurdish resistance in Iraq to Iran in 1975. In addition to heightened mortality, a number of families appear to have sent some of their teenage sons to Iran to avoid their involvement in the conflict as fighters, victims, or both. Their absence has enabled the remaining males of the 1958–1962 cohort to enjoy an advantageous position in the marriage and labor markets, while their corresponding mating partners, the females of the 1963–1967 cohort, were the first generation of Iraqi Kurdish females to pursue education and employment en masse. Illustrating the effect of conflict over demographic structure, we highlight the need for further research into two interrelated aspects: the strategies of mothers to keep their male offspring safe via selective out‐migration during conflict, and the resulting emancipation of females due to postconflict male shortage.\n"]
    July 01, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12402   open full text
  • The Contribution of Diffusion to the Fertility Transition in Belgium (1887–1934).
    Rafael Costa, Philippe Bocquier, Thierry Eggerickx.
    Population and Development Review. July 01, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 2, Page 411-447, June 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nThe aim of this study is to investigate whether diffusion contributed to the geography and the speed of the fertility transition. To this end, we assembled a new and unique dataset from historical sources in Belgium containing yearly information on fertility at the municipality level and a range of structural and cultural indicators over 47 years (1887–1934). We use this dataset in diffusion models based on multilevel event‐history analysis. We find that diffusion between neighboring places influenced the geography of the fertility transition only in its early stages; and diffusion accelerated the speed at which municipalities initiated fertility decline at the onset of the transition. We argue that, in the early stages of the transition, the bulk of people's interactions was confined to their own communities and neighboring places and, as such, new ideas, attitudes, and information about fertility would spread among adjacent areas. Later on, since the turn of the twentieth century, the way people interacted in space was transformed by the growing urbanization, the development of transportation infrastructure and labor migration. In this new context, opportunities for social learning were less constrained by space.\n"]
    July 01, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12395   open full text
  • A Little Bit Pregnant?: Productive Ambiguity and Fertility Research.
    Suzanne O. Bell, Mary E. Fissell.
    Population and Development Review. April 27, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nFertility researchers rely upon a simple binary: pregnant versus not pregnant. However, this conceptualization does not capture many women's experiences, both historically and in numerous settings today. We suggest that pregnancy status may be a much more ambiguous state, and that such ambiguity is often productive for women. Building a culturally sensitive understanding of what we are calling “productive ambiguity” can foster more rigorous studies of fertility that better capture potential pregnancy and the range of post‐coital fertility‐inhibiting actions women take, both intentionally and not. In this paper, we aim to: 1) describe the ambiguity that exists around pregnancy; 2) explain the ways in which this ambiguity is productive for women; 3) analyze two concrete examples of such ambiguity in practice: the case of menstrual regulation and the unexpected conceptual overlaps between contraception and early abortion in a variety of settings, and finally; 4) suggest ways that this more nuanced understanding might inform fertility research, including abortion measurement research. We combine recent qualitative and quantitative data with historical sources to analyze the cultural logics and power dynamics of this ambiguity.\n"]
    April 27, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12403   open full text
  • The Changing Age Distribution of the United States.
    Samuel H. Preston, Yana C. Vierboom.
    Population and Development Review. April 07, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nThe age distribution of a population is a product of a century of demographic history. This paper describes how the history of births, deaths, and migrations has fashioned the US age distribution in 2018. It also shows how that history, combined with contemporary processes, was actively producing changes in the age distribution between 2013 and 2018. Changes in survivorship, migration, and births all contributed to population aging during this period, with a declining growth rate of births the leading contributor. Using a novel approach, the paper demonstrates how the inertia reflected in changing age distributions sheds light on the future population of the United States. Massive growth in the population above age 70 will occur by 2033 if recent age patterns of age‐specific mortality and migration are maintained.\n"]
    April 07, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12386   open full text
  • Mobility, Stagnation, or Attrition? Diverse Earning Trajectories in a Cohort of Foreign‐born Men.
    Leafia Zi Ye, Michal Engelman.
    Population and Development Review. March 24, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 1, Page 113-149, March 2021. ", "\nAbstractResearchers and policymakers frequently debate about the integration of immigrants into the US economy. These debates are often based on limited data that do not capture the diversity of immigrants who arrived in the later twentieth century. Related research has also struggled to incorporate the experience of short‐term immigrants or immigrants who move in and out of the labor force. Using records from the Social Security Administration, we track the complete cohort of foreign‐born men who received social security numbers in 1978 through their subsequent working years and characterize their earning trajectories. We find that the share of foreign‐born men with low earnings declined over time, mainly due to attrition from the formal labor force. We also show, for the first time, that immigrants’ employment and earning histories vary considerably by their countries of origin: while those from several countries in Asia and Africa experienced substantial earnings growth and tended to stay in the United States for the long term, men from Central America and the Caribbean experienced more stagnation and had high levels of temporary and permanent attrition from the formal labor force. We end by discussing the historical contingencies and socioeconomic contexts—in sending countries and the United States—that shaped these trajectories.\n"]
    March 24, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12368   open full text
  • Child Marriage in Canada.
    Alissa Koski, Shelley Clark.
    Population and Development Review. March 24, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 1, Page 57-78, March 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nChild marriage, defined as formal or informal marriage before the age of 18, is a globally recognized indicator of gender inequality. Canada has placed itself at the forefront of global efforts to end child marriage as part of its commitment to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Despite these global aspirations, child marriage remains legal throughout Canada. Data from vital statistics agencies and recent censuses indicate that child marriage, although rare, is practiced across the country. In 2016, nearly 2,300 children between 15 and 17 years of age were in union, a prevalence of 0.2 percent. The vast majority (98 percent) of these were informal, common‐law unions. Demographic patterns of child marriage in Canada are similar to those observed in many low‐ and middle‐income countries. Girls were far more likely to be married as children than boys and typically wed much older spouses. There were marked differences in the prevalence of child marriage across the country, with the highest estimates found in Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and the territories. These findings draw attention to the discrepancy between Canada's domestic law and its foreign policy. They also highlight thorny challenges inherent in efforts to eradicate this practice in Canada and elsewhere.\n"]
    March 24, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12369   open full text
  • The Untold Story of 50 Years of Adolescent Fertility in West Africa: A Cohort Perspective on the Quantum, Timing, and Spacing of Adolescent Childbearing.
    Ann Garbett, Brienna Perelli‐Harris, Sarah Neal.
    Population and Development Review. March 24, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 1, Page 7-40, March 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nAlthough recent studies examine overall fertility trends in West Africa, few using advanced demographic techniques focus on adolescents. This study explores long‐term patterns of adolescent childbearing in 12 West African countries using 51 Demographic and Health Surveys covering birth cohorts that span 54 years (1940–1994). We employ classic demographic measures as well as disaggregation by early‐ (10–14 years old), middle‐ (15–17), and late adolescence (18–19). Cohort‐based estimates of total adolescent births, parity progression ratios, and rapid repeat birth probabilities reveal little change over time. Most women begin childbearing in adolescence, the progression to additional adolescent births remains common, and the incidence of rapid repeat births is high. In recent cohorts, women exit adolescence with an average of between 0.4 (Ghana) to 1.3 (Niger) births. Contrary to common assumptions, it is women commencing motherhood in early‐ and middle‐, not later adolescence, who account for most West African adolescent fertility.\n"]
    March 24, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12384   open full text
  • Gender Equity, Religion, and Fertility in Europe and North America.
    Laurie Fields DeRose.
    Population and Development Review. March 24, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 1, Page 41-55, March 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nReligion has historically been a pronatalist force, but because it fosters traditional gender role attitudes, its importance for fertility may wane where gender equity is thought to be emerging as the new natalism. In this study, I used World Values Survey and European Values Survey data from 1989 to 2018 to determine whether more religious Northern countries are slower to develop the widespread egalitarian gender role attitudes associated with fertility recovery. I concluded that the “old natalism” and the “new natalism” do not compete with each other as much as their negative association implies that they might. By tracing the evolution of country‐level gender equity in more‐ and less religious countries of Europe and North America, I showed how country‐level religiosity does not dampen the potential for a gender equity‐stimulated fertility recovery. This paper also contributes by showing that the curvilinear relationship between gender equity and fertility has continued into more recent time periods than covered by previous work.\n"]
    March 24, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12373   open full text
  • The Great Convergence: Gender and Unpaid Work in Europe and the United States.
    Ariane Pailhé, Anne Solaz, Maria Stanfors.
    Population and Development Review. March 24, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 1, Page 181-217, March 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nOver the past decades, men's and women's time use in industrialized nations has changed dramatically, suggesting a gender revolution. Women increased their time in paid work and reduced time in unpaid activities, while men increased their time in unpaid work, but not enough to compensate for women's retreat. We investigate developments regarding men's and women's unpaid work across Europe and the United States, using time diary data from the mid‐1980s and onward. We find evidence for gender convergence in unpaid work over time, but different trends for housework and childcare. Gender convergence in housework primarily resulted from women reducing their time, whereas childcare time increased for both sexes, resulting in convergence only where men increased more than did women. Decomposition analyses show that trends in housework and childcare are explained by changes in behavior rather than compositional changes in population characteristics. Though level differences in unpaid work persist, our findings regarding trends support gender convergence in that they are general across country contexts that vary regarding policy and social norms about gender, family, and work.\n"]
    March 24, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12385   open full text
  • Youth Migration Decisions in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Satellite‐Based Empirical Evidence from Nigeria.
    Mulubrhan Amare, Kibrom A. Abay, Channing Arndt, Bekele Shiferaw.
    Population and Development Review. March 24, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 1, Page 151-179, March 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nThis article examines the implications of urban growth on youth migration decisions in Nigeria. We use night light intensity data combined with Living Standards Measurement Study‐Integrated Surveys on Agriculture data, as an indicator of urban growth and associated economic opportunities. Employing alternative econometric approaches that exploit the spatial and temporal differences in urban growth as proxied by night light intensity, we find that urban growth in potential migrant destinations encourages youth migration. We also find heterogeneous responses to urban growth among various groups of youth as well as varying responses to different types of migration. Broadly, women and those youth with more education are more likely to migrate, while those in households with livestock are less likely to migrate. Often, however, the effects are complex and varied. For example, land and physical asset ownership encourage temporary migration; but greater land ownership discourages permanent migration, while physical assets have insignificant effects. Our results from Nigeria show that policy makers concerned about rural–urban youth exodus should adopt a differentiated, in terms of targets, and multidimensional policy approach to reap the benefits of urbanization while avoiding its negative consequences.\n"]
    March 24, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12383   open full text
  • The Internetization of International Migration.
    Luca Maria Pesando, Valentina Rotondi, Manuela Stranges, Ridhi Kashyap, Francesco C. Billari.
    Population and Development Review. March 24, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 47, Issue 1, Page 79-111, March 2021. ", "\nAbstract\nThe Internet has revolutionized our economies, societies, and everyday lives. Many social phenomena are no longer the same as they were in the pre‐Internet era: they have been “Internetized.” We define the Internetization of international migration, and we investigate it by exploring the links between the Internet and migration outcomes all along the migration path, from migration intentions to actual migration. Our analyses leverage a number of sources, both at the micro‐ and the macro‐level, including the Gallup World Poll, the Arab Barometer, data from the International Telecommunication Union, the Italian population register, and unique register data from a migrant reception center in Southern Italy. We also distinguish between economic migrants—those who leave their country of origin with the aim of seeking better economic opportunities elsewhere—and political migrants—those who are forced to leave their countries of origin for political or conflict‐related reasons. Our findings point to a consistently positive relationship between the diffusion of the Internet, migration intentions, and migration behaviors, supporting the idea that the Internet is not necessarily a driving force of migration per se, but rather an enabling “supportive agent.” These associations are particularly relevant for economic migrants, at least for migration intentions. Further analyses underscore the importance of the Internet in providing a key informational channel which helps to define clearer migration trajectories.\n"]
    March 24, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12371   open full text
  • In Living Memory: The Demographic Dynamics of Event Recollection in a Stable Population*.
    Frank T. Denton, Byron G. Spencer.
    Population and Development Review. March 12, 2021
    ["Population and Development Review, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstract\nWe model a stable population that has experienced an important historical event and the declining proportion, as time passes, of the population that remembers that event. The proportion is determined by the demographic characteristics of the population, including its age distribution, the natural rate of growth, the underlying birth rate, the life table probabilities to which the population is subject, and the effects of immigration and emigration under alternative assumptions about the nature of the event. (We distinguish between “local” and “universal” events.) It is determined also by the choice of an age of awareness of children at the time the event occurred. We preface development of the model by noting examples of major events of the kind we have in mind and, after development, explore the model's sensitivity to different parameter specifications by experimental simulation. The output of each experiment is a sequence of “remembering” proportions at successive decade intervals and the corresponding mean ages of the “rememberers” in relation to the overall mean age of the population.\n"]
    March 12, 2021   doi: 10.1111/padr.12388   open full text
  • The Rise and Prominence of Skip‐Generation Households in Lower‐ and Middle‐Income Countries.
    Zachary Zimmer, Emily Treleaven.
    Population and Development Review. December 30, 2020
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 46, Issue 4, Page 709-733, December 2020. ", "\nAbstractInvestigations into changes in household formations across lower‐ and middle‐income countries (LMICs) rarely consider skip‐generation households. Yet, demographic, social, and economic forces increasingly encourage skip‐generation household formations. We examine trends and changes in the prevalence of skip‐generation households from 1990 to 2016, examining households, adults aged 60+, and children under 15, across 49 countries using household roster data from Demographic and Health Surveys. Analysis takes place in stages, first describing trends in skip‐generation households across countries and next providing explanatory analyses using multilevel modeling to assess whether, and the degree to which, country‐level characteristics like AIDS mortality and female labor force participation explain trends in the probability that a household is, or that an individual resides in, a skip‐generation household. Results indicate extensive increases in skip‐generation households in many LMICs, although there is also variation. The increases and variations are not well‐explained by the country‐level characteristics in our models, suggesting other underlying reasons for the rise and prominence of skip‐generation households across LMICs.\n"]
    December 30, 2020   doi: 10.1111/padr.12349   open full text
  • Aging, Proximity to Death, and Religiosity.
    Marie Lechler, Uwe Sunde.
    Population and Development Review. December 30, 2020
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 46, Issue 4, Page 735-755, December 2020. ", "\nAbstract\nConsiderable evidence has documented that the elderly are more religious and that religiosity is associated with better health and lower mortality. Yet, little is known about the reverse role of life expectancy or proximity to death, as opposed to age, for religiosity. This paper provides evidence for the distinct role of expected remaining life years for the importance of religion in individuals’ lives. We combine individual survey response data for more than 300,000 individuals from 95 countries over the period 1994–2014 with information from period life tables. Contrary to wide‐held beliefs, religiosity decreases with greater expected proximity to death. The findings have important implications regarding the consequences of population aging for religiosity and associated outcomes.\n"]
    December 30, 2020   doi: 10.1111/padr.12358   open full text
  • The Influence of Health in Early Adulthood on Male Fertility.
    Kieron Barclay, Martin Kolk.
    Population and Development Review. December 30, 2020
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 46, Issue 4, Page 757-785, December 2020. ", "\nAbstract\nDespite the large literature examining predictors of fertility, previous research has not offered a population‐level perspective on how health in early adulthood is related to male fertility. Using Swedish population and military conscription registers, we study how body mass index (BMI), physical fitness, and height are associated with total fertility and parity transitions by 2012 among 405,427 Swedish men born 1965–1972, meaning we observe fertility up to age 40 or older. Applying linear regression and sibling fixed effects, we find that these anthropometric measures are strong predictors of fertility, even after accounting for education and cumulative income. Men with a “normal” BMI and in the highest decile of physical fitness have the most children. Men who were obese at ages 17–20 had a relative probability of childlessness almost twice as high as men who had a “normal” BMI, and men in the bottom decile of physical fitness had a relatively probability of childlessness more than 50 percent higher than men in the top decile. In sibling comparison models the tallest men have the most children and men in the lowest two deciles of height have significantly lower fertility. Further analyses show that the strong associations persist even among men who married.\n"]
    December 30, 2020   doi: 10.1111/padr.12357   open full text
  • A Stalled Revolution? Change in Women's Labor Force Participation during Child‐Rearing Years, Europe and the United States 1996–2016.
    Jennifer L. Hook, Eunjeong Paek.
    Population and Development Review. December 30, 2020
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 46, Issue 4, Page 677-708, December 2020. ", "\nAbstract\nWhile women's labor force participation rates (LFPRs) in the United States stalled over the last quarter‐century, European countries exhibited a variety of trajectories. We draw on demographic and gender theories of women's life course to understand changes in women's LFPR during their prime child‐rearing years. We build expectations about how aggregate trends may be driven by shifts in the prevalence of key demographic events such as child‐rearing (i.e., compositional) versus shifts in the association of these events with women's LFP (i.e., behavioral). We use data from the European Union Labour Force Surveys and the US Current Population Survey in Kitagawa–Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition models to decompose trends in women's LFPR from 1996 to 2016 across 18 countries by educational attainment, partnership status, and parental status for women aged 20–44. Compositional and behavioral shifts positively contribute to higher LFPR in most countries, but lower rates in several others. Behavioral change is not widely shared across groups of women. Partnered mothers without college degrees are the main contributors to behavioral change and show the greatest variability across countries. We suggest greater research attention to this “missing middle,” as their LFP is key to understanding change during this period.\n"]
    December 30, 2020   doi: 10.1111/padr.12364   open full text
  • Major Socioeconomic Driving Forces of Improving Population Health in China: 1978–2018.
    Zhongwei Zhao, Hongbo Jia, Mengxue Chen.
    Population and Development Review. December 30, 2020
    ["Population and Development Review, Volume 46, Issue 4, Page 643-676, December 2020. ", "\nAbstract\nChina's post‐Cultural‐Revolution reform generated rapid economic growth. But it also brought about major negative changes, especially in the early stage, which jeopardized population health and mortality gains. Nonetheless, improvements continued. China had achieved the Millennium Development Goal target 4 of reducing under‐5 mortality by two‐thirds well before the target year of 2015. Life expectancy continued to rise and reached 76.6 years by 2018, notably higher than the world average and that recorded in many countries with similar per capita GDP. By describing China's recent economic growth, the rebuilding of nationwide health insurance systems, the development of medical financial assistance, and poverty alleviation programs, this paper shows how these improvements were achieved. Vulnerability to health and mortality risks has been reduced; the availability of, and people's access to, health insurance have increased; and better medical treatments and health services have become available and accessible. These macro‐socioeconomic determinants have played the central role in achieving further population health and mortality progress in China in the past four decades.\n"]
    December 30, 2020   doi: 10.1111/padr.12370   open full text
  • An Agricultural Wealth Index for Multidimensional Wealth Assessments.
    Joseph Hackman, Daniel Hruschka, Mariya Vizireanu.
    Population and Development Review. October 30, 2020
    ["Population and Development Review, EarlyView. ", "\nAbstractSocial scientists have increasingly used asset‐based wealth scores, like the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) wealth index, to assess economic disparities. However, current indices primarily capture wealth in globalized market economies, thus ignoring other forms of prosperity, such as success in agricultural activities. Using a simple extension to the standard estimation of the DHS wealth index, we describe procedures for estimating an agricultural wealth index (AWI) that complements market‐based wealth indices by capturing household success in agricultural activities. We apply this procedure to household data from 129 DHS surveys from over 40 countries with sufficient land and livestock data to estimate a reliable and consistent AWI. We assess the construct validity of the AWI using benchmarks of growth in both adults and children. This alternative measure of wealth provides new opportunities for understanding the causes and consequences of wealth inequality, and how success along different dimensions of wealth creates different social opportunities and constraints for health and well‐being.\n"]
    October 30, 2020   doi: 10.1111/padr.12367   open full text
  • Another Gendered Demographic Dividend: Adjusting to a Future without Sons.
    Keera Allendorf.
    Population and Development Review. September 29, 2020
    ["\nAbstractSonless families may pose a gendered demographic dividend. As fertility declines, families with only daughters are likely to grow. In turn, patriarchal family systems may weaken when many families are unable to engage in patriarchal practices. I examine some of these theorized dynamics in India. Sonless families did grow as fertility declined, reaching 10 percent in India as a whole in 2015 and approaching 20 percent in states with earlier fertility declines. I also identify a substantial influence of children's sex on mothers’ expectations of old‐age support. Using panel data from the India Human Development Survey, I compare women's expectations after they had children to earlier expectations when they did not yet have children. Women with sons kept or further embraced patriarchal expectations that a son would provide support. Sonless mothers largely gave up patriarchal expectations, turning to daughters or away from children altogether.\n", "Population and Development Review, Volume 46, Issue 3, Page 471-499, September 2020. "]
    September 29, 2020   doi: 10.1111/padr.12337   open full text
  • Cycles of Gender Convergence and Divergence in Drug Overdose Mortality.
    Jessica Y. Ho.
    Population and Development Review. September 29, 2020
    ["\nAbstract\nThe United States is 25 years into a large‐scale drug overdose epidemic, yet its consequences for gender differences remain largely unexplored. This study finds that drug overdose mortality increased seven‐ and fivefold for men and women, respectively; accounts for 0.8‐year (men) and 0.4‐year (women) deficits in life expectancy at birth in 2017; and has made an increasing contribution (from 1 percent to 17 percent) to women's life expectancy advantage at the prime adult ages between 1990 and 2017. I document a distinctive cyclicality to sex differences in drug overdose. During the epidemic's early stages—the heyday of prescription opioids—gender differences narrowed, but once the epidemic transitioned to illicit drugs in 2010, gender differences widened again. This pattern holds across racial/ethnic groups, and in fact may be even stronger among Hispanics and non‐Hispanic blacks than among non‐Hispanic whites. That we observe this gender dynamic across racial/ethnic groups is surprising since very different trends in drug overdose mortality have been observed for whites versus other groups. The contemporary epidemic is a case of dynamic change in gender differences, and the differential mortality risks experienced by men and women reflect gendered social norms, attitudes toward risk, and patterns of diffusion.\n", "Population and Development Review, Volume 46, Issue 3, Page 443-470, September 2020. "]
    September 29, 2020   doi: 10.1111/padr.12336   open full text
  • International Migration and City Growth in the Global South: An Analysis of IPUMS Data for Seven Countries, 1992–2013.
    Mathias Lerch.
    Population and Development Review. September 29, 2020
    ["\nAbstractEvidence on the demographic components of city growth in the global South is scarce, and the role played by international migration is neglected. We analyze the importance of recent international migration in cities, compare it with that of internal movements, and evaluate the growth contribution across national contexts and the urban hierarchy. Combining individual‐level census data and geographic master files of metropolitan areas with indirect demographic estimation techniques, we cover 377 cities in seven countries. It is found that, in almost one third of cities, population change and replacement has been mainly determined by migration. The international component was larger than the internal one in more than half of cities. Whereas internal migration tends to decrease with rising city size, international movements tend to increase. Positive net international migration substitutes for the net losses from domestic movements in large cities, but complements the gains in intermediate‐sized cities.\n", "Population and Development Review, Volume 46, Issue 3, Page 557-582, September 2020. "]
    September 29, 2020   doi: 10.1111/padr.12344   open full text
  • How Do Education and Family Planning Accelerate Fertility Decline?
    Daphne H. Liu, Adrian E. Raftery.
    Population and Development Review. September 29, 2020
    ["\nAbstractEducation and family planning can both be influenced by policy and are thought to accelerate fertility decline. However, questions remain about the nature of these effects. Does the effect of education operate through increasing educational attainment of women or educational enrollment of children? At which educational level is the effect strongest? Does the effect of family planning operate through increasing contraceptive prevalence or reducing unmet need? Is education or family planning more important?\nWe assessed the quantitative impact of education and family planning in high‐fertility settings using a regression framework inspired by Granger causality. We found that women's attainment of lower secondary education is key to accelerating fertility decline and found an accelerating effect of contraceptive prevalence for modern methods. We found the impact of contraceptive prevalence to be substantially larger than that of education. These accelerating effects hold in sub‐Saharan Africa, but with smaller effect sizes there than elsewhere.\n", "Population and Development Review, Volume 46, Issue 3, Page 409-441, September 2020. "]
    September 29, 2020   doi: 10.1111/padr.12347   open full text
  • Armed Conflict and the Timing of Childbearing in Azerbaijan.
    Orsola Torrisi.
    Population and Development Review. September 29, 2020
    ["\nAbstract\nResearch on fertility changes in former Soviet states of the South Caucasus is scant and has overlooked the role of armed conflicts. This study contributes to filling these gaps by providing the first detailed account of fertility changes in Azerbaijan since independence and by exploring them in relation to the Nagorno‐Karabakh conflict with Armenia. Estimates from retrospective birth history data from the 2006 Demographic and Health Survey show that since 1991 period fertility declined to almost below‐replacement levels, essentially as a result of stopping behavior, and, only recently, slight birth postponement. While the conflict seems to have little influence on aggregate trends, discrete‐time logit models accounting for unobserved heterogeneity reveal a 42–45 percent higher risk of transitioning to the second birth for women who have been exposed to conflict violence—whether in the form of forced migration or because of residence in the conflict‐torn Karabakh region—than for nonexposed women. Never‐migrant women from Karabakh have also significantly higher probability of having a first child. Further positive effects on fertility are observed for women who lost a child during peak conflict years. Risk‐insurance and replacement effects are possible mechanisms explaining such fertility responses.\n", "Population and Development Review, Volume 46, Issue 3, Page 501-556, September 2020. "]
    September 29, 2020   doi: 10.1111/padr.12359   open full text
  • The Population of Centenarians in Brazil: Historical Estimates from 1900 to 2000.
    Marília R. Nepomuceno, Cássio M. Turra.
    Population and Development Review. July 27, 2020
    ["\nAbstract\nSince the nineteenth century, the census has provided the number of 100‐year‐olds in Brazil, one of the most populous countries worldwide. In 1900, 4,438 individuals reported themselves to be centenarians, a figure that increased about fivefold by the 2000 census. However, due to data quality issues, we are skeptical about the real size of the recorded population in the Brazilian census. We offer alternative estimates of the most likely number of centenarians during the twentieth century by combining variable‐r relations with different mortality models. Our results indicate there was virtually no centenarian at the beginning of the twentieth century. The population has become larger than 1,000 individuals only in the 1990s, suggesting there has been an extensive, although diminishing, overenumeration of centenarians in the census records. Our results can help policymakers to plan the demands of a growing old age population in places that face stricter family and public budget constraints.\n", "Population and Development Review, EarlyView. "]
    July 27, 2020   doi: 10.1111/padr.12355   open full text
  • Inequality in Human Development across the Globe.
    Iñaki Permanyer, Jeroen Smits.
    Population and Development Review. July 16, 2020
    ["\nAbstract\nThe Human Development Index is the world's most famous indicator of the level of development of societies. A disadvantage of this index is however that only national values are available, whereas within many countries huge subnational variation in development exists. We therefore have developed the Subnational Human Development Index (SHDI), which shows within‐country variation in human development across the globe. Covering more than 1,600 regions within 161 countries, the SHDI and its underlying dimension indices provide a 10 times higher resolution picture of human development than previously available. The newly observed within‐country variation is particularly strong in low‐ and middle‐developed countries. Education disparities explain most SHDI inequality within low‐developed countries, and standard of living differences are most important within the more highly developed ones. Strong convergence forces operating both across and within countries have compensated the inequality enhancing force of population growth. These changes will shape the twenty‐first century agenda of scientists and policy‐makers concerned with global distributive justice.\n", "Population and Development Review, EarlyView. "]
    July 16, 2020   doi: 10.1111/padr.12343   open full text
  • Strengths and Weaknesses of Canadian Express Entry System: Experts’ Perceptions.
    Oldrich Bures, Radka Klvanova, Robert Stojanov.
    Population and Development Review. July 14, 2020
    ["\nAbstractThis article offers an analysis of the first four years of functioning of Express Entry, a new on‐line application management system to select skilled entrants for Canada's key economic immigration programs leading to permanent residence. Based on interviews with 20 experts on Canadian immigration policies, we identified a number of strengths and weaknesses of the Canadian Express Entry system related to four areas: immigration policy making, processing of applications, selection of immigrants, and retention of immigrants. Since these areas are integral parts of immigration policies in all countries and Canada is a long‐term leader in the design of points‐based systems for selection of skilled immigrants, we also specify several lessons from the Canadian experience with the Express Entry system for other countries seeking to attract skilled immigrants.\n", "Population and Development Review, EarlyView. "]
    July 14, 2020   doi: 10.1111/padr.12354   open full text
  • Time Use and Household Division of Labor in India—Within‐Gender Dynamics.
    Abhilasha Srivastava.
    Population and Development Review. June 29, 2020
    ["\nAbstract\nHousehold allocation of labor is an important area of scholarship in developing countries where women's well‐being is affected by the heavy load of unpaid work within the household. This study extends nuclear household‐centric research on labor allocation by drawing attention to bargaining between female in‐laws in multigenerational households in India. This paper empirically tests two competing theories based on the impact of a daughter‐in‐law's education on household division of labor in multigenerational households. First is Caldwell's thesis that contends that increasing education would increase the bargaining power of daughter‐in‐law, thereby tilting the distribution of household labor in her favor, and the second is patriarchal bargain theory that makes an opposite claim. Both these theories are tested using time‐use data, and the latter is found to have higher explanatory power. Further layers are added to the analysis by tracing the effects of caste, class, and religion. Findings show that these mediate and determine the division of housework and bargaining outcomes between female in‐laws. This study emphasizes the need for an intersectional understanding of gender norms that are inextricably tied to factors such as religion, caste, class, and family structure. Findings also underline the need to study within‐gender dynamics systematically.\n", "Population and Development Review, Volume 46, Issue 2, Page 249-285, June 2020. "]
    June 29, 2020   doi: 10.1111/padr.12309   open full text
  • Latest‐Late Fertility? Decline and Resurgence of Late Parenthood Across the Low‐Fertility Countries.
    Eva Beaujouan.
    Population and Development Review. June 29, 2020
    ["\nAbstract\nAfter decades of fertility postponement, we investigate recent changes in late parenthood across low‐fertility countries in the light of observations from the past. We use long series of age‐specific fertility rates from the Human Fertility Database (1950–2016) for women, and new data covering the period 1990–2016 for men. In 1950, the contribution of births at age 40 and over to female fertility rates ranged from 2.5 to 9 percent, but then fell sharply until the 1980s. From the 1990s, however, the prevalence of late first births increased rapidly, especially so in countries where it was initially lowest. This has produced a late fertility rebound in the last two decades, occurring much faster for women than for men. Comparisons between recent and past extremely late (age 48+) fertility levels confirm that people are now challenging the natural fertility barriers, particularly for a first child.\n", "Population and Development Review, Volume 46, Issue 2, Page 219-247, June 2020. "]
    June 29, 2020   doi: 10.1111/padr.12334   open full text
  • Forced Displacement, Migration, and Fertility in Burundi.
    Philip Verwimp, Davide Osti, Gudrun Østby.
    Population and Development Review. June 29, 2020
    ["\nAbstract\nThe civil war in Burundi (1993–2005) led to the forced displacement of a large part of the population. This study aims to explore how that displacement affected fertility behavior. Using a nationally representative, retrospective survey on birth and residential histories of 4,523 Burundian women, we examine the impact of conflict‐induced displacement on fertility. These unique data enable us to distinguish between remaining‐in‐place, voluntary migration, and forced displacement, as well as to distinguish between periods spent “on the move” versus periods spent in residence in the new site. Adopting a semiparametric regression model, we analyze both the probability of the first pregnancy and the subsequent spacing of higher order pregnancies. We find that the risk of a first pregnancy was higher in the year in which a woman was forcibly displaced and lower in the year a woman migrated voluntarily. Residency in a new site increased the risk of pregnancy for both.\n", "Population and Development Review, Volume 46, Issue 2, Page 287-319, June 2020. "]
    June 29, 2020   doi: 10.1111/padr.12316   open full text
  • Immigration Selection and the Educational Composition of the US Labor Force.
    Jennifer Van Hook, Alain Bélanger, Patrick Sabourin, Anne Morse.
    Population and Development Review. June 29, 2020
    ["\nAbstract\nImmigration policy is often viewed as an important regulator of the flow of labor and human capital into the labor market. In the US context, this perspective underlies efforts to raise the educational levels of newly admitted US immigrants, which has been proposed through a variety of mechanisms. Yet it remains unclear whether and under what circumstances such changes would significantly raise the educational level of the US labor force. We use a microsimulation model to evaluate the effects of various policy proposals that would seek to admit more highly educated immigrants. Results suggest that adopting a Canadian‐style admissions policy that explicitly selects immigrants based on educational attainment would lead to a better educated labor force, especially among immigrants and their descendants. Eliminating all unauthorized immigration or family reunification and diversity admission categories, however, would have minimal impact. Additionally, the effects of all policy scenarios on the educational composition of the entire labor force are likely to be modest and would be conditional on the continuation of intergenerational mobility and high levels of immigration.\n", "Population and Development Review, Volume 46, Issue 2, Page 321-346, June 2020. "]
    June 29, 2020   doi: 10.1111/padr.12315   open full text
  • Birth Spacing and Child Health Trajectories.
    Ray Miller, Mahesh Karra.
    Population and Development Review. June 29, 2020
    ["\nAbstractUsing longitudinal data on a cohort of over 4,000 children from four low‐ and middle‐income countries, we document the association between birth spacing and child growth trajectories. We find declines in child height at age 1 among children who are born within three years of an older sibling. However, we also observe catch‐up growth for closely spaced children as they age. We find no evidence that catch‐up growth is driven by remedial health investments after birth, suggesting substitutability in underlying biological processes. We also find that very widely spaced children (preceding birth interval of more than seven years) are similar in height at age 1 as children who are spaced three to seven years apart, but outgrow their more closely spaced counterparts as they age. However, further sibling comparisons suggest that the growth premium that is observed for very widely spaced children may be driven by unobserved confounding factors.\n", "Population and Development Review, Volume 46, Issue 2, Page 347-371, June 2020. "]
    June 29, 2020   doi: 10.1111/padr.12335   open full text
  • Contextualizing Mexican Migrant Education Selectivity.
    Erin R. Hamilton, Po‐Chun Huang.
    Population and Development Review. February 07, 2020
    ["\nAbstract\nThe debate on whether Mexican immigrants are positively or negatively selected on education has been limited by studying immigrants in data collected only from the sending or the destination country. Using nationally representative data from Mexico that tracked migrants to the United States prospectively, we examine the education selectivity of Mexicans who immigrated to the United States from 2002 to 2005. We find that using reports of migration by remaining household members and proxy substitution of migration education underestimates migrant selectivity. Migrant men and women were positively selected within households and rural municipalities of origin but negatively selected from the national educational distribution. Differences in selectivity by size of place, as well as when considering the local or national context, means that the answer of whether immigrants are positively or negatively selected on education depends on the context considered.\n", "Population and Development Review, EarlyView. "]
    February 07, 2020   doi: 10.1111/padr.12314   open full text
  • International Migration: Trends, Determinants, and Policy Effects.
    Hein Haas, Mathias Czaika, Marie‐Laurence Flahaux, Edo Mahendra, Katharina Natter, Simona Vezzoli, María Villares‐Varela.
    Population and Development Review. October 08, 2019
    --- - |2 Abstract This paper synthesizes insights from new global data on the effectiveness of migration policies. It investigates the complex links between migration policies and migration trends to disentangle policy effects from structural migration determinants. The analysis challenges two central assumptions underpinning the popular idea that migration restrictions have failed to curb migration. First, post‐WWII global migration levels have not accelerated, but remained relatively stable while most shifts in migration patterns have been directional. Second, post‐WWII migration policies have generally liberalized despite political rhetoric suggesting the contrary. While migration policies are generally effective, “substitution effects” can limit their effectiveness, or even make them counterproductive, by geographically diverting migration, interrupting circulation, encouraging unauthorized migration, or prompting “now or never” migration surges. These effects expose fundamental policy dilemmas and highlight the importance of understanding the economic, social, and political trends that shape migration in sometimes counterintuitive, but powerful, ways that largely lie beyond the reach of migration policies. - 'Population and Development Review, EarlyView. '
    October 08, 2019   doi: 10.1111/padr.12291   open full text
  • Trends in Non‐Hispanic White Mortality in the United States by Metropolitan‐Nonmetropolitan Status and Region, 1990–2016.
    Irma T. Elo, Arun S. Hendi, Jessica Y. Ho, Yana C. Vierboom, Samuel H. Preston.
    Population and Development Review. September 18, 2019
    --- - - 'Population and Development Review, Volume 45, Issue 3, Page 549-583, September 2019. '
    September 18, 2019   doi: 10.1111/padr.12249   open full text
  • Internal Migration and Vulnerability to Poverty in Tanzania.
    Rebecca Pietrelli, Pasquale Scaramozzino.
    Population and Development Review. September 18, 2019
    --- - - 'Population and Development Review, Volume 45, Issue 3, Page 525-547, September 2019. '
    September 18, 2019   doi: 10.1111/padr.12247   open full text
  • Male Fertility Around the World and Over Time: How Different is it from Female Fertility?
    Bruno Schoumaker.
    Population and Development Review. September 18, 2019
    --- - - 'Population and Development Review, Volume 45, Issue 3, Page 459-487, September 2019. '
    September 18, 2019   doi: 10.1111/padr.12273   open full text
  • The Effects of In Utero Exposure to Influenza on Birth and Infant Outcomes in the US.
    Audrey Dorélien.
    Population and Development Review. September 18, 2019
    --- - - 'Population and Development Review, Volume 45, Issue 3, Page 489-523, September 2019. '
    September 18, 2019   doi: 10.1111/padr.12232   open full text
  • Fiscal Implications of Population Aging and Social Sector Expenditure in China.
    Yong Cai, Wang Feng, Ke Shen.
    Population and Development Review. November 28, 2018
    --- - - 'Population and Development Review, EarlyView. '
    November 28, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12206   open full text
  • Housework, Gender Role Attitudes, and Couples' Fertility Intentions: Reconsidering Men's Roles in Gender Theories of Family Change.
    Barbara S. Okun, Liat Raz‐Yurovich.
    Population and Development Review. November 20, 2018
    --- - - 'Population and Development Review, EarlyView. '
    November 20, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12207   open full text
  • Marx on Population: A Bicentenary Celebration.
    Simon Szreter.
    Population and Development Review. November 05, 2018
    --- - - 'Population and Development Review, EarlyView. '
    November 05, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12208   open full text
  • “How Little Progress”? A Political Economy of Postcolonial Nutrition.
    John Nott.
    Population and Development Review. October 18, 2018
    --- - - 'Population and Development Review, EarlyView. '
    October 18, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12198   open full text
  • From Fertility Preferences to Reproductive Outcomes in the Developing World.
    John Bongaarts, John B. Casterline.
    Population and Development Review. October 17, 2018
    --- - - 'Population and Development Review, EarlyView. '
    October 17, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12197   open full text
  • Deterring Emigration with Foreign Aid: An Overview of Evidence from Low‐Income Countries.
    Michael A. Clemens, Hannah M. Postel.
    Population and Development Review. October 10, 2018
    --- - - 'Population and Development Review, EarlyView. '
    October 10, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12184   open full text
  • Issue Information.

    Population and Development Review. September 28, 2018
    --- - - Population and Development Review, Volume 44, Issue 3, Page 421-425, September 2018.
    September 28, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12099   open full text
  • The New Eugenics—Selective Breeding in an Era of Reproductive Technologies: A Review Essay.
    Bernard M. Dickens.
    Population and Development Review. September 28, 2018
    --- - - Population and Development Review, Volume 44, Issue 3, Page 627-638, September 2018.
    September 28, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12191   open full text
  • Maria Krysan and Kyle Crowder Cycle of Segregation: Social Processes and Residential Stratification New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 2017. 288 p. $35.00.
    Ren Farley.
    Population and Development Review. September 28, 2018
    --- - - Population and Development Review, Volume 44, Issue 3, Page 639-642, September 2018.
    September 28, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12190   open full text
  • David Reich Who We Are and How We Got Here: Ancient DNA and the New Science of the Human Past New York: Pantheon Books, 2018. 368 p. $28.95 (hardcover).
    Geoffrey McNicol.
    Population and Development Review. September 28, 2018
    --- - - Population and Development Review, Volume 44, Issue 3, Page 645-646, September 2018.
    September 28, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12196   open full text
  • Ana Raquel Minian Undocumented Lives: The Untold Story of Mexican Migration Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2018. 336 p. $29.95 (hardcover).
    Dennis Hodgson.
    Population and Development Review. September 28, 2018
    --- - - Population and Development Review, Volume 44, Issue 3, Page 644-644, September 2018.
    September 28, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12195   open full text
  • Nora Doyle Maternal Bodies: Redefining Motherhood in Early America University of North Carolina Press, 2018. 286 p. $32.95 (pbk.).
    John Casterline.
    Population and Development Review. September 28, 2018
    --- - - Population and Development Review, Volume 44, Issue 3, Page 643-644, September 2018.
    September 28, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12194   open full text
  • Pablo Yanguas Why We Lie About Aid London: Zed Books, 2018. 275 p.
    Landis MacKellar.
    Population and Development Review. September 28, 2018
    --- - - Population and Development Review, Volume 44, Issue 3, Page 646-647, September 2018.
    September 28, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12193   open full text
  • Dan Bouk How Our Days Became Numbered: Risk and the Rise of the Statistical Individual Chicago and London: The University of Chicago Press, 2015. 328 p. $30.00 (pbk.).
    John Bongaarts.
    Population and Development Review. September 28, 2018
    --- - - Population and Development Review, Volume 44, Issue 3, Page 642-643, September 2018.
    September 28, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12192   open full text
  • Abstracts.

    Population and Development Review. September 28, 2018
    --- - - Population and Development Review, Volume 44, Issue 3, Page 657-658, September 2018.
    September 28, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12185   open full text
  • Economic Conditions in Early Life and Circulatory Disease Mortality.
    Ryan K. Masters.
    Population and Development Review. September 28, 2018
    --- - |2 Abstract I test the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease hypothesis using a cohort perspective on mortality. I combine data from the National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files, 1986–2006, and U.S. economic data between 1902 and 1956 (403,746 respondents and 39,439 deaths), to estimate how exposures to adverse economic conditions in utero and during the first three years of life affect circulatory disease mortality risk in adulthood. I also examine cohort‐based variation in these associations. Findings suggest that in utero exposures to poor economic conditions increased risk of death from circulatory diseases. Results are consistent with theory and evidence suggesting that developmental processes early in life are strongly associated with circulatory disease susceptibility in older adulthood. However, findings indicate that the mortality effects of these early‐life exposures have likely weakened across birth cohorts. - 'Population and Development Review, Volume 44, Issue 3, Page 519-553, September 2018. '
    September 28, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12174   open full text
  • Climate Migration at the Height and End of the Great Mexican Emigration Era.
    Fernando Riosmena, Raphael Nawrotzki, Lori Hunter.
    Population and Development Review. September 28, 2018
    --- - - 'Population and Development Review, Volume 44, Issue 3, Page 455-488, September 2018. '
    September 28, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12158   open full text
  • Fertility Differentials by Education in Brazil: From the Conclusion of Fertility to the Onset of Postponement Transition.
    Eduardo L. G. Rios‐Neto, Adriana Miranda‐Ribeiro, Paula Miranda‐Ribeiro.
    Population and Development Review. September 28, 2018
    --- - - 'Population and Development Review, Volume 44, Issue 3, Page 489-517, September 2018. '
    September 28, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12165   open full text
  • Living Alone in Later Life: A Global Perspective.
    David Reher, Miguel Requena.
    Population and Development Review. September 28, 2018
    --- - - 'Population and Development Review, Volume 44, Issue 3, Page 427-454, September 2018. '
    September 28, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12149   open full text
  • Anthony Trollope on A Modest Proposal for Relieving the Burden of Old Age.

    Population and Development Review. September 28, 2018
    --- - - Population and Development Review, Volume 44, Issue 3, Page 623-626, September 2018.
    September 28, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12189   open full text
  • US National Science and Technology Council on Impacts of Near‐Earth Objects.

    Population and Development Review. September 28, 2018
    --- - - Population and Development Review, Volume 44, Issue 3, Page 652-655, September 2018.
    September 28, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12187   open full text
  • New York Court Proceedings on the Personhood of Nonhuman Animals.

    Population and Development Review. September 28, 2018
    --- - - Population and Development Review, Volume 44, Issue 3, Page 649-651, September 2018.
    September 28, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12188   open full text
  • Authors For This Issue.

    Population and Development Review. September 28, 2018
    --- - - Population and Development Review, Volume 44, Issue 3, Page 659-659, September 2018.
    September 28, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12186   open full text
  • The Global Evolution of Travel Visa Regimes.
    Mathias Czaika, Hein Haas, María Villares‐Varela.
    Population and Development Review. August 23, 2018
    --- - - Population and Development Review, Volume 44, Issue 3, Page 589-622, September 2018.
    August 23, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12166   open full text
  • Perception has its Own Reality: Subjective versus Objective Measures of Economic Distress.
    Dana A. Glei, Noreen Goldman, Maxine Weinstein.
    Population and Development Review. August 08, 2018
    --- - - 'Population and Development Review, EarlyView. '
    August 08, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12183   open full text
  • Formal Education and Migration Aspirations in Ethiopia.
    Kerilyn Schewel, Sonja Fransen.
    Population and Development Review. July 01, 2018
    --- - - Population and Development Review, Volume 44, Issue 3, Page 555-587, September 2018.
    July 01, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12159   open full text
  • The Emergence of Bimodal Fertility Profiles in Latin America.
    Everton E. C. Lima, Kryštof Zeman, Tomáš Sobotka, Mathias Nathan, Ruben Castro.
    Population and Development Review. June 22, 2018
    --- - - 'Population and Development Review, EarlyView. '
    June 22, 2018   doi: 10.1111/padr.12157   open full text
  • Large and Growing Social Inequality in Mortality in Norway: The Combined Importance of Marital Status and Own and Spouse's Education.
    Øystein Kravdal.
    Population and Development Review. October 11, 2017
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    October 11, 2017   doi: 10.1111/padr.12096   open full text
  • Demographic and Educational Success of Lineages in Northern Sweden.
    Martin Kolk, Martin Hällsten.
    Population and Development Review. September 22, 2017
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    September 22, 2017   doi: 10.1111/padr.12091   open full text
  • Frozen in Place: Net Migration in sub‐National Areas of the United States in the Era of the Great Recession.
    Kenneth M. Johnson, Katherine J. Curtis, David Egan‐Robertson.
    Population and Development Review. September 14, 2017
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    September 14, 2017   doi: 10.1111/padr.12095   open full text
  • Socially Embedded Preferences, Environmental Externalities, and Reproductive Rights.
    Aisha Dasgupta, Partha Dasgupta.
    Population and Development Review. August 03, 2017
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    August 03, 2017   doi: 10.1111/padr.12090   open full text
  • Adam Smith, the Division of Labor, and the Renewal of Population Heterogeneity.
    Philip Kreager.
    Population and Development Review. July 19, 2017
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    July 19, 2017   doi: 10.1111/padr.12085   open full text
  • Adult Mortality Five Years after a Natural Disaster.
    Jessica Y. Ho, Elizabeth Frankenberg, Cecep Sumantri, Duncan Thomas.
    Population and Development Review. June 28, 2017
    Exposure to extreme events has been hypothesized to affect subsequent mortality because of mortality selection and scarring effects of the event itself. We examine survival at and in the five years after the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami for a population‐representative sample of residents of Aceh, Indonesia who were differentially exposed to the disaster. For this population, the dynamics of selection and scarring are a complex function of the degree of tsunami impact in the community, the nature of individual exposures, age at exposure, and gender. Among individuals from tsunami‐affected communities we find evidence for positive mortality selection among older individuals, with stronger effects for males than for females, and that this selection dominates any scarring impact of stressful exposures that elevate mortality. Among individuals from other communities, where mortality selection does not play a role, there is evidence of scarring with property loss associated with elevated mortality risks in the five years after the disaster among adults age 50 or older at the time of the disaster.
    June 28, 2017   doi: 10.1111/padr.12075   open full text
  • The Rise in Divorce and Cohabitation: Is There a Link?
    Brienna Perelli‐Harris, Ann Berrington, Nora Sánchez Gassen, Paulina Galezewska, Jennifer A. Holland.
    Population and Development Review. June 05, 2017
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    June 05, 2017   doi: 10.1111/padr.12063   open full text
  • Together but Apart: Do US Whites Live in Racially Diverse Cities and Neighborhoods?
    Daniel T. Lichter, Domenico Parisi, Michael C. Taquino.
    Population and Development Review. June 05, 2017
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    June 05, 2017   doi: 10.1111/padr.12068   open full text
  • Women's Reproductive Intentions and Behaviors during the Zika Epidemic in Brazil.
    Letícia J. Marteleto, Abigail Weitzman, Raquel Zanatta Coutinho, Sandra Valongueiro Alves.
    Population and Development Review. June 05, 2017
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    June 05, 2017   doi: 10.1111/padr.12074   open full text
  • Trading Youth for Citizenship? The Spousal Age Gap in Cross‐Border Marriages.
    Kelly Stamper Balistreri, Kara Joyner, Grace Kao.
    Population and Development Review. May 31, 2017
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    May 31, 2017   doi: 10.1111/padr.12072   open full text
  • Demographic Determinants of Population Aging in Europe since 1850.
    Michael Murphy.
    Population and Development Review. May 25, 2017
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    May 25, 2017   doi: 10.1111/padr.12073   open full text
  • Does Fertility or Mortality Drive Contemporary Population Aging? The Revisionist View Revisited.
    Ronald Lee, Yi Zhou.
    Population and Development Review. May 16, 2017
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    May 16, 2017   doi: 10.1111/padr.12062   open full text
  • The Intergenerational Effect of Cambodia's Genocide on Children's Education and Health.
    Asadul Islam, Chandarany Ouch, Russell Smyth, Liang Choon Wang.
    Population and Development Review. April 19, 2017
    We investigate the intergenerational impact of conflict on the educational and health outcomes of children born years after the conflict ended by exploiting geographical variation in the intensity of the genocide that occurred during the Khmer Rouge (KR) regime in Cambodia. We find that children of individuals who were of prime marriage age during the genocide and experienced greater intensity of genocide have worse educational and health outcomes. In particular, for each standard deviation increase in the intensity of the genocide, average children's normal grade progression rate decreases by 0.03 standard deviations and average children's height‐for‐ age Z‐score decreases by 0.06 standard deviations. We examine several channels through which genocide could affect children born to survivors after the conflict and find suggestive evidence that the marriage market acts as a channel that transmits the adverse impact of conflict across generations. Our findings are robust to alternative measures of mortality rates and post‐KR internal migration.
    April 19, 2017   doi: 10.1111/padr.12047   open full text
  • A Digital History of Anglophone Demography and Global Population Control, 1915–1984.
    Emily Klancher Merchant.
    Population and Development Review. March 07, 2017
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    March 07, 2017   doi: 10.1111/padr.12044   open full text
  • The Effect of Birth Spacing on Child Mortality in Sweden, 1878–1926.
    Joseph Molitoris.
    Population and Development Review. March 02, 2017
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    March 02, 2017   doi: 10.1111/padr.12050   open full text
  • Fertility by Birth Order among the Descendants of Immigrants in Selected European Countries.
    Hill Kulu, Tina Hannemann, Ariane Pailhé, Karel Neels, Sandra Krapf, Amparo González‐Ferrer, Gunnar Andersson.
    Population and Development Review. February 08, 2017
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    February 08, 2017   doi: 10.1111/padr.12037   open full text
  • Has Child Marriage Declined in sub‐Saharan Africa? An Analysis of Trends in 31 Countries.
    Alissa Koski, Shelley Clark, Arijit Nandi.
    Population and Development Review. February 07, 2017
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    February 07, 2017   doi: 10.1111/padr.12035   open full text
  • The Effect of Education on the Demographic Dividend.
    Elisenda Rentería, Guadalupe Souto, Iván Mejía‐Guevara, Concepció Patxot.
    Population and Development Review. December 20, 2016
    The impact of population structure on economic growth has been studied in recent decades using different methods to estimate the so‐called demographic dividend. Besides, education has been pointed out as a key factor in economic growth. We propose a decomposition of the demographic dividend, into age and education effects. We illustrate the potentialities of the method, deriving an application to Mexico and Spain over the period 1970‐2100. To that end, we estimate the National Transfer Accounts age profiles by schooling level and apply them to recently available population projections stratified by education level. Our results confirm the role of population age structure in the demographic dividend, but also reveal that education attainment can be even more crucial. Moreover, we find that how both age and education effects finally impact on economic growth depends to a great extent on the specific consumption and labor income age profiles in each country.
    December 20, 2016   doi: 10.1111/padr.12017   open full text
  • How Dangerous Is Obesity? Issues in Measurement and Interpretation.
    Andrew Stokes, Samuel H. Preston.
    Population and Development Review. December 12, 2016
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    December 12, 2016   doi: 10.1111/padr.12015   open full text
  • The End of Hypergamy: Global Trends and Implications.
    Albert Esteve, Christine R. Schwartz, Jan Bavel, Iñaki Permanyer, Martin Klesment, Joan García‐Román.
    Population and Development Review. November 21, 2016
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    November 21, 2016   doi: 10.1111/padr.12012   open full text
  • The Surprising Decline in the Non‐Marital Fertility Rate in the United States.
    Daniel Schneider, Alison Gemmill.
    Population and Development Review. November 17, 2016
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    November 17, 2016   doi: 10.1111/padr.12013   open full text
  • Gender‐Role Ideology, Labor Market Institutions, and Post‐industrial Fertility.
    Mary C. Brinton, Dong‐Ju Lee.
    Population and Development Review. September 19, 2016
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    September 19, 2016   doi: 10.1111/padr.161   open full text
  • Is the US Old‐Age Mortality Advantage Vanishing?
    Alberto Palloni, James A. Yonker.
    Population and Development Review. August 09, 2016
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    August 09, 2016   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2016.00157.x   open full text
  • The Decline of Arranged Marriage? Marital Change and Continuity in India.
    Keera Allendorf, Roshan K. Pandian.
    Population and Development Review. August 06, 2016
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    August 06, 2016   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2016.00149.x   open full text
  • Kin Count(s): Educational and Racial Differences in Extended Kinship in the United States.
    Jonathan Daw, Ashton M. Verdery, Rachel Margolis.
    Population and Development Review. August 06, 2016
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    August 06, 2016   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2016.00150.x   open full text
  • Age at First Birth and Later Life Health in Western and Eastern Europe.
    Emily Grundy, Else Foverskov.
    Population and Development Review. June 14, 2016
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    June 14, 2016   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2016.00128.x   open full text
  • The Impact of Migration on Long‐Term European Population Trends, 1850 to Present.
    Michael Murphy.
    Population and Development Review. June 14, 2016
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    June 14, 2016   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2016.00132.x   open full text
  • Trends in Inter‐Birth Intervals in Developing Countries 1965–2014.
    John B. Casterline, Colin Odden.
    Population and Development Review. June 14, 2016
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    June 14, 2016   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2016.00134.x   open full text
  • Demographic Strengthening of European Identity.
    Erich Striessnig, Wolfgang Lutz.
    Population and Development Review. June 02, 2016
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    June 02, 2016   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2016.00133.x   open full text
  • Divorce and Separation in India.
    Premchand Dommaraju.
    Population and Development Review. May 30, 2016
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    May 30, 2016   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2016.00127.x   open full text
  • Trajectories of Ethnoracial Diversity in American Communities, 1980–2010.
    Matthew Hall, Laura Tach, Barrett A. Lee.
    Population and Development Review. May 30, 2016
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    May 30, 2016   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2016.00125.x   open full text
  • Residential Mobility and Homeownership in Dar es Salaam.
    Manja Hoppe Andreasen, Jytte Agergaard.
    Population and Development Review. April 08, 2016
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    April 08, 2016   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2016.00104.x   open full text
  • Advanced Maternal Age and Offspring Outcomes: Reproductive Aging and Counterbalancing Period Trends.
    Kieron Barclay, Mikko Myrskylä.
    Population and Development Review. April 08, 2016
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    April 08, 2016   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2016.00105.x   open full text
  • Drought and Early Child Health in Rural India.
    Santosh Kumar, Ramona Molitor, Sebastian Vollmer.
    Population and Development Review. April 08, 2016
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    April 08, 2016   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2016.00107.x   open full text
  • Fighting Infectious Disease: Evidence from Sweden 1870–1940.
    Volha Lazuka, Luciana Quaranta, Tommy Bengtsson.
    Population and Development Review. April 08, 2016
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    April 08, 2016   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2016.00108.x   open full text
  • Family Planning Program Effects: Evidence from Microdata.
    Grant Miller, Kimberly Singer Babiarz.
    Population and Development Review. April 08, 2016
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    April 08, 2016   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2016.00109.x   open full text
  • Marriage Migration and Inequality in India, 1983–2008.
    Smriti Rao, Kade Finnoff.
    Population and Development Review. September 15, 2015
    Using National Sample Survey data from 1983 to 2007–08, we investigate rising rates of female marriage migration in India. We find little evidence to support the idea that marriage migration is a form of disguised economic migration by women. We hypothesise that it is instead a result of the changing patterns of marriage by socioeconomic status. Regression analysis indicates that poor families are increasingly more likely to have brides who in‐migrate, a finding that is robust across a sectoral disaggregation of marriage migration. We also find that urban inequality increases the likelihood of migration by intensifying class stratifications within urban India, increasing the need for poorer urban households to seek migrant brides. Marriage thus serves to reinforce rather than undermine larger patterns of class (and not just caste) inequality.
    September 15, 2015   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2015.00069.x   open full text
  • Links Between Demographic and Kinship Transitions.
    Ashton M. Verdery.
    Population and Development Review. September 15, 2015
    The demographic transition is also a kinship transition. This insight is obvious for certain types of kin—as fertility falls, parents have fewer children, for instance—but its broader implications for communities remain unexplored. Prior work on this topic has focused on how the demographic transition reshapes the availability of living kin within a society over time to the neglect of how differences in the demographic transition lead to differences in kinship networks between communities. In this article, I examine survey data (for rural Thailand) and use microsimulation methods to test how different pathways through the demographic transition affect kinship networks in communities. My results show that different routes through the demographic transition can substantially alter kinship network size and, entirely through the mechanism of demographic change, have indirect effects on community integration. These effects persist long after the demographic transition has ended. I theorize reasons that community‐level differentiation in kinship networks owing to the demographic transition are an important mechanism linking the demographic transition to modernity.
    September 15, 2015   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2015.00068.x   open full text
  • Religion and Health in Early Childhood: Evidence from South Asia.
    Elizabeth Brainerd, Nidhiya Menon.
    Population and Development Review. September 15, 2015
    This article studies early childhood health in India, Bangladesh, and Nepal, focusing on inequalities in anthropometric outcomes by religious adherence. India and Nepal have Hindu majorities, while Bangladesh is predominantly Muslim. The results suggest that Muslim infants have an advantage over Hindu infants in height‐for‐age in India (for boys and girls) and in Bangladesh (for boys). However, this advantage disappears beyond 12 months of age, at which point Hindu children in all three countries are found to have significantly better anthropometric outcomes than Muslim children. We report tests that rule out mortality selection and undertake falsification and robustness exercises that confirm these findings. Further results suggest that exposure to Ramadan fasting in utero may lead to positive selection of Muslim male infants, partially explaining the Muslim infant health advantage, but this does not fully explain the shift from Muslim advantage in infancy to Hindu advantage in childhood in all three countries.
    September 15, 2015   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2015.00067.x   open full text
  • The Demographic Promise of Expanded Female Education: Trends in the Age at First Birth in Malawi.
    Monica J. Grant.
    Population and Development Review. September 15, 2015
    The expansion of female education has been promoted as a way to postpone the age at first birth. In sub‐Saharan Africa, the first cohorts to benefit from policies that expanded access to education are now reaching adulthood and beginning childbearing. I investigate whether the expansion of education in Malawi, which implemented a free primary education policy in 1994 and subsequently expanded secondary schooling, has led to a later age at first birth and whether the education gradient in fertility timing has remained stable over time. Despite increases in female grade attainment over the past twenty years, the age at first birth has not changed. Using instrumental variables analysis, I find a significant negative association between grade attainment and age at first birth, suggesting that the deterioration of school quality and the shift in the age pattern of enrollment that accompanied educational expansion may have compromised the transformative potential of education.
    September 15, 2015   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2015.00066.x   open full text
  • Low Fertility, Socioeconomic Development, and Gender Equity.
    Thomas Anderson, Hans‐Peter Kohler.
    Population and Development Review. September 15, 2015
    While new empirical findings and theoretical frameworks provide insight into the interrelations between socioeconomic development, gender equity, and low fertility, puzzling exceptions and outliers in these findings call for a more all‐encompassing framework to understand the interplay between these processes. We argue that the pace and onset of development are two important factors to be considered when analyzing gender equity and fertility. Within the developed world, “first‐wave developers”—or countries that began socioeconomic development in the nineteenth/early twentieth century—currently have much higher fertility levels than “late developers.” We lay out a novel theoretical approach to explain why this is the case and provide empirical evidence to support our argument. Our approach not only explains historical periods of low fertility but also sheds light on why there exists such large variance in fertility rates among today's developed countries.
    September 15, 2015   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2015.00065.x   open full text
  • The Recent Mortality Decline in Russia: Beginning of the Cardiovascular Revolution?
    Pavel Grigoriev, France Meslé, Vladimir M. Shkolnikov, Evgeny Andreev, Agnieszka Fihel, Marketa Pechholdova, Jacques Vallin.
    Population and Development Review. March 19, 2014
    The health situation in Russia has often been characterized as a long‐running crisis. From the 1960s until the beginning of the 2000s, the declining life expectancy trend was substantially interrupted only twice: once in the mid‐1980s as a result of Gorbachev's anti‐alcohol campaign, and again at the end of the 1990s as a result of the “rebound” effect following the dramatic rise in mortality associated with the acute socioeconomic crisis. In both cases, the progress made proved to be short‐lived. A third mortality decline in Russia began in 2003 and is still ongoing. We investigate the components and driving forces of this new development, in particular the role played by cardiovascular diseases. Using cause‐specific mortality data, we identify the main features of the recent improvements and compare these features with those observed in selected European countries, specifically France, Poland, and Estonia. Our aim is to gauge whether the features of the improvements in these countries are similar to those of the recent advancements made in Russia. Although the recent improvements in Russia have features in common with initial stages of prior mortality declines in other countries and may support optimism about the future, a return to mortality stagnation cannot be ruled out.
    March 19, 2014   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2014.00652.x   open full text
  • Period‐Based Mortality Change: Turning Points in Trends since 1950.
    Nadine Ouellette, Magali Barbieri, John R. Wilmoth.
    Population and Development Review. March 19, 2014
    We investigate a major turning point in mortality trends at adult ages that occurred for many low‐mortality countries in the late 1960s or early 1970s. We analyze patterns of total and cause‐specific mortality over the past 60 years using data from the Human Mortality Database and the World Health Organization. We focus on four broad categories of causes of death: heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, smoking‐related cancers, and all other cancers. We use a two‐slope regression model to assess the timing and magnitude of turning points in mortality trends over this era, making separate analyses by sex, age, and cause of death. The age pattern of temporal changes is given particular attention. Our results demonstrate convincingly that period‐based factors were very significant in the onset of the “cardiovascular revolution” in the years around 1970. In general, although cohort processes cannot be ruled out as a driver of mortality change in recent decades (especially for mortality due to smoking‐related cancers), the evidence reviewed here suggests that period factors have been the dominant force behind the mortality trends of high‐income countries during this era.
    March 19, 2014   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2014.00651.x   open full text
  • Women's and Men's Relative Status and Intimate Partner Violence in India.
    Abigail Weitzman.
    Population and Development Review. March 19, 2014
    In recent years, gender‐based violence in South Asia has been of great concern to scholars and policymakers alike. This study explores the effects of women's relative resources on several dimensions of intimate partner violence in India, and tests whether economic resources allow women to “bargain” for less violence, or exacerbate the violence they face. To explore both possibilities, I use data from the 2005–06 Indian National Family Health Survey. The findings indicate that women with relatively higher education, employment, or earnings status than their spouse face more frequent and severe violence than women with lower status. Together, these findings suggest that women's superior material power bases threaten patriarchal norms and are responded to with the use of violence.
    March 19, 2014   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2014.00650.x   open full text
  • The Effect of Couple Disagreement about Child‐Timing Intentions: A Parity‐Specific Approach.
    Maria Rita Testa, Laura Cavalli, Alessandro Rosina.
    Population and Development Review. March 19, 2014
    Using couple data from a longitudinal study conducted in Italy, a country with persistently low fertility levels, we examined the effect of partners' discrepant child‐timing intentions on reproductive behavior. We found that the effect of couple disagreement on subsequent fertility is parity‐specific and does not depend on whether only the male or the female partner intends to have a(nother) child. The disagreement tends to produce an intermediate childbearing outcome at parities zero and one, while the outcome is shifted more toward agreement on not having a(nother) child at parity two. The empirical evidence suggests that gender equality in reproductive decisionmaking is not driven by partners' equal bargaining power or partners' equal access to economic resources. The findings indicate that the predictive power of child‐timing intentions strongly improves if both partners' views are considered in fertility models, and thus support the adoption of couple analysis in fertility research.
    March 19, 2014   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2014.00649.x   open full text
  • Anatomy of a Municipal Triumph: New York City's Upsurge in Life Expectancy.
    Samuel H. Preston, Irma T. Elo.
    Population and Development Review. March 19, 2014
    Over the period 1990–2010, the increase in life expectancy for males in New York City was 6.0 years greater than for males in the United States. The female relative gain was 3.9 years. Male relative gains were larger because of extremely rapid reductions in mortality from HIV/AIDS and homicide, declines that reflect effective municipal policies and programs. Declines in drug‐ and alcohol‐related deaths also played a significant role in New York City's advance, but every major cause of death contributed to its relative improvement. By 2010, New York City had a life expectancy that was 1.9 years greater than that of the US. This difference is attributable to the high representation of immigrants in New York's population. Immigrants to New York City, and to the United States, have life expectancies that are among the highest in the world. The fact that 38 percent of New York's population consists of immigrants, compared to only 14 percent in the United States, accounts for New York's exceptional standing in life expectancy in 2010. In fact, US‐born New Yorkers have a life expectancy below that of the United States itself.
    March 19, 2014   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2014.00648.x   open full text
  • Anatomy of a Municipal Triumph: New York City's Upsurge in Life Expectancy.
    Samuel H. Preston, Irma T. Elo.
    Population and Development Review. December 18, 2013
    Over the period 1990–2010, the increase in life expectancy for males in New York City was 6.0 years greater than for males in the United States. The female relative gain was 3.9 years. Male relative gains were larger because of extremely rapid reductions in mortality from HIV/AIDS and homicide, declines that reflect effective municipal policies and programs. Declines in drug‐ and alcohol‐related deaths also played a significant role in New York City's advance, but every major cause of death contributed to its relative improvement. By 2010, New York City had a life expectancy that was 1.9 years greater than that of the US. This difference is attributable to the high representation of immigrants in New York's population. Immigrants to New York City, and to the United States, have life expectancies that are among the highest in the world. The fact that 38 percent of New York's population consists of immigrants, compared to only 14 percent in the United States, accounts for New York's exceptional standing in life expectancy in 2010. In fact, US‐born New Yorkers have a life expectancy below that of the United States itself.
    December 18, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00648.x   open full text
  • Inequalities in Healthy Life Expectancy in Eastern Europe.
    Yuka Minagawa.
    Population and Development Review. December 05, 2013
    Compared to the large body of research on mortality differentials between East Central Europe and the former Soviet Union, little attention has been paid to how overall population health status differs between these two country groups. This article investigates disparities in population health, measured by healthy life expectancy (HLE) between ages 20 and 74, for 23 Eastern European countries in 2008. There are substantial disparities in partial HLE between East Central Europe and the former Soviet Union, amounting to differences of 10 years on average for men and women. In addition, factors reflecting the malfunction of existing social structure are inversely associated with partial HLE. Accordingly, populations in countries where corruption, restriction of freedom, and violence are prevalent spend fewer years in good health.
    December 05, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00632.x   open full text
  • The Apparent Failure of Russia's Pronatalist Family Policies.
    Tomas Frejka, Sergei Zakharov.
    Population and Development Review. December 05, 2013
    Russia has a history of pronatalist policies dating back to the 1930s. Two sets of pronatalist measures were implemented during the past 40 years. The one designed in the early 1980s proved to be a clear failure. Instead of raising fertility, completed cohort fertility declined from 1.8 births per woman for the 1960 birth cohort to 1.6 for the 1968 cohort. The government of President Putin became concerned with the dire demographic conditions of high mortality and low fertility in Russia in the 1990s and early 2000s. A comprehensive set of pronatalist measures came into effect in January 2007. The period total fertility rate increased from 1.3 births per woman in 2006 to 1.6 in 2011, which the authorities view as an unqualified success. An unbiased demographic evaluation as well as analyses of Russian experts reveals that apparently the measures mainly caused a lowering of the age at birth and shortening of birth intervals. It appears that any real fertility increase is questionable, i.e. cohort fertility is not likely to increase appreciably. The recent pronatalist measures are likely to turn out to be a failure.
    December 05, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00631.x   open full text
  • Geographic Divergence in Mortality in the United States.
    Andrew Fenelon.
    Population and Development Review. December 05, 2013
    The United States trails other developed countries in adult mortality, a process that has become more pronounced over the past several decades. However, comparisons are complicated by substantial geographic variations in mortality within the United States. The second half of the twentieth century was characterized by a substantial divergence in adult mortality between the South and the rest of the United States. The article examines trends in US geographic variation in mortality between 1965 and 2004, in particular the aggregate divergence in mortality between the southern states and states with more favorable mortality experience. Relatively high smoking‐attributable mortality in the South explains 50–100 percent of the divergence for men between 1965 and 1985 and up to 50 percent for women between 1985 and 2004. There is also a geographic correspondence between the contribution of smoking and other factors, suggesting that smoking may be one piece of a more complex health‐related puzzle.
    December 05, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00630.x   open full text
  • Family Policies and the Western European Fertility Divide: Insights from a Natural Experiment in Belgium.
    Sebastian Klüsener, Karel Neels, Michaela Kreyenfeld.
    Population and Development Review. December 05, 2013
    Countries in Northwestern Europe, including Belgium, report cohort fertility levels of close to two children per woman; whereas Central European countries, such as Germany, have levels of around 1.6 children. In seeking to explain these differences, some scholars have stressed the role of the social policy context, while others have pointed to variation in fertility‐related social norms. But because these influences are interdependent, it is difficult to isolate their effects on fertility trends. This study attempts to disentangle these two factors by drawing on a quasi‐natural experiment. After World War I Germany was compelled to cede the Eupen–Malmedy territory to Belgium. The population of this region has retained its German linguistic identity, but has been subject to Belgian social policies. We examine whether the fertility trends in this German‐speaking region of Belgium follow the Belgian or the German pattern. Our findings indicate that they generally resemble the Belgian pattern. This suggests that institutional factors are important for understanding the current fertility differences in Western Europe.
    December 05, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00629.x   open full text
  • Cohort Replacement and Homeostasis in World Population, 1950–2100.
    Francesco C. Billari, Gianpiero Dalla‐Zuanna.
    Population and Development Review. December 05, 2013
    Using a simple empirical approach, we analyze world and regional‐level cohort replacement as determined by the key components of population dynamics, i.e. fertility, survival, and migration, for 1950–2010, using UN data. We define two kinds of homeostatic relationships among these components: fertility responses to mortality change (type I) and migration responses to changes in net reproduction (type II), and show that both can be observed to some degree in this period. We examine the extent of cohort replacement embodied in the medium‐variant UN population projections over 2010–2100 and consider how the international migration assumptions made in such projections would be affected by a homeostatic perspective.
    December 05, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00628.x   open full text
  • Authors For This Issue.

    Population and Development Review. September 11, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    September 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00627.x   open full text
  • Abstracts.

    Population and Development Review. September 11, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    September 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00626.x   open full text
  • The United Nations 2012 Population Projections.

    Population and Development Review. September 11, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    September 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00625.x   open full text
  • United Nations Development Programme: Human Development Report 2013: The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World.

    Population and Development Review. September 11, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    September 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00624.x   open full text
  • James P. Smith and Malay Majmundar (eds.): Aging in Asia: Findings from New and Emerging Data Initiatives.

    Population and Development Review. September 11, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    September 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00623.x   open full text
  • Véronique Petit: Counting Populations, Understanding Societies: Towards an Interpretive Demography.

    Population and Development Review. September 11, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    September 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00622.x   open full text
  • John F. May: World Population Policies: Their Origin, Evolution and Impact.

    Population and Development Review. September 11, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    September 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00621.x   open full text
  • Jonathan Donner and Patricia Mechael (eds.): mHealth in Practice: Mobile Technology for Health Promotion in the Developing World.

    Population and Development Review. September 11, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    September 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00620.x   open full text
  • Louis P. Cain and Donald G. Paterson: The Children of Eve: Population and Well‐being in History.

    Population and Development Review. September 11, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    September 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00619.x   open full text
  • Keith Breckenridge and Simon Szreter (eds.): Registration and Recognition: Documenting the Person in World History.
    Geoffrey McNicoll.
    Population and Development Review. September 11, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    September 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00618.x   open full text
  • Vaclav Smil: Harvesting the Biosphere: What We Have Taken from Nature.
    Gerald C. Nelson.
    Population and Development Review. September 11, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    September 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00617.x   open full text
  • Ian Morris: The Measure of Civilization: How Social Development Decides the Fate of Nations.
    Cameron Campbell.
    Population and Development Review. September 11, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    September 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00616.x   open full text
  • Arsène Dumont on Legislative Measures to Remedy Depopulation in France.

    Population and Development Review. September 11, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    September 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00615.x   open full text
  • The Future Composition of the Canadian Labor Force: A Microsimulation Projection.
    Alain Bélanger, Nicolas Bastien.
    Population and Development Review. September 11, 2013
    This article charts the future transformations of the Canadian labor force population using a microsimulation projection model. The model takes into account differentials in demographic behavior and labor force participation of individuals according to their ethnocultural and educational characteristics. As a result of a rapid fall in fertility, the Canadian population is expected to age rapidly as baby boomers start to retire from the labor market in large numbers. In response to declining fertility, Canada raised its immigration intake at the end of the 1980s, and immigration is now the main driver of Canadian population growth. At the same time, immigrants to Canada are becoming more culturally diversified. Over the last half century, the main source regions have shifted from Europe to Asia. Results of the microsimulation show that Canada's labor force population will continue to increase, but at a slower rate than in the recent past. By 2031, almost one third of the country's total labor force could be foreign‐born, and almost all its future increase is expected to be among university graduates, while the less‐educated labor force is projected to decline.
    September 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00614.x   open full text
  • The Effectiveness of Immigration Policies.
    Mathias Czaika, Hein De Haas.
    Population and Development Review. September 11, 2013
    This article elaborates a conceptual framework for assessing the character and effectiveness of immigration policies. It argues that, to a considerable extent, the public and academic controversy concerning this issue is spurious because of fuzzy definitions of policy effectiveness, stemming from confusion between (1) policy discourses, (2) policies on paper, (3) policy implementation, and (4) policy impacts. The article distinguishes three policy gaps: the discrepancy between public discourses and policies on paper (discursive gap); the disparity between policies on paper and implemented policies (implementation gap); and the extent to which implemented policies affect migration (efficacy gap). Although implemented policies seem to be the correct yardstick to assess policy effectiveness, in practice the (generally more pronounced) discourses are often used as a benchmark. This can lead to an overestimation of policy failure. Existing empirical studies suggest that policies significantly affect the targeted migration flows, but they crucially fail to assess the relative importance of policies in comparison to other migration determinants, including non‐migration policies, as well as the hypothetical occurrence of unintended categorical, spatial, inter‐temporal, and reverse flow “substitution” effects. Evidence on such effects is still scarce, showing the need for more empirically informed insights about the short‐ and long‐term effects of migration policies.
    September 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00613.x   open full text
  • A Cognitive–Social Model of Fertility Intentions.
    Christine A. Bachrach, S. Philip Morgan.
    Population and Development Review. September 11, 2013
    We examine the use and value of fertility intentions against the backdrop of theory and research in the cognitive and social sciences. First, we draw on recent brain and cognition research to contextualize fertility intentions within a broader set of conscious and unconscious mechanisms that contribute to mental function. Next, we integrate this research with social theory. Our conceptualizations suggest that people do not necessarily have fertility intentions; they form them only when prompted by specific situations. Intention formation draws on the current situation and on schemas of childbearing and parenthood learned through previous experience, imbued by affect, and organized by self‐representation. Using this conceptualization, we review apparently discordant knowledge about the value of fertility intentions in predicting fertility. Our analysis extends and deepens existing explanations for the weak predictive validity of fertility intentions at the individual level and provides a social‐cognitive explanation for why intentions predict as well as they do. When focusing on the predictive power of intentions at the aggregate level, our conceptualizations lead us to focus on how social structures frustrate or facilitate intentions and how the structural environment contributes to the formation of reported intentions in the first place. Our analysis suggests that existing measures of fertility intentions are useful but to varying extents and in many cases despite their failure to capture what they seek to measure.
    September 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00612.x   open full text
  • Education and Cohabitation in Britain: A Return to Traditional Patterns?
    Máire Ní Bhrolcháin, Éva Beaujouan.
    Population and Development Review. September 11, 2013
    Cohabitation is sometimes thought of as being inversely associated with education, but in Britain a more complex picture emerges. Educational group differences in cohabitation vary by age, time period, cohort, and indicator used. Well‐educated women pioneered cohabitation in Britain in the 1970s and 1980s. In the most recent cohorts, however, the less educated have exceeded the best educated in the proportions ever having cohabited at young ages. But the main difference by education currently seems largely a matter of timing—that is, the less educated start cohabiting earlier than the best educated. In Britain, educational differentials in cohabitation appear to be reinstating longstanding social patterns in the level and timing of marriage. Taking partnerships as a whole, social differentials have been fairly stable. Following a period of innovation and diffusion, there is much continuity with the past.
    September 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00611.x   open full text
  • What Is Urban? Comparing a Satellite View with the Demographic and Health Surveys.
    Audrey Dorélien, Deborah Balk, Megan Todd.
    Population and Development Review. September 11, 2013
    Appraisal of urbanization trends is limited by the lack of a globally consistent definition of what is meant by urban. This article seeks to identify and explain differences in the definition of “urbanness” as used in two largely distinct research communities. We compare the Global Rural–Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP), which defines urban areas based primarily on satellite imagery of nighttime lights, to the urban classification found in Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), which relies on the urban definitions of individual countries' national statistical offices. We analyze the distribution of DHS clusters falling within and outside of GRUMP urban extents and examine select characteristics of these clusters (notably, household electrification). Our results show a high degree of agreement between the two data sources on what areas are considered urban; furthermore, when used together, GRUMP and DHS data reveal urban characteristics that are not evident when one data source is used independently. GRUMP urban extents are overwhelmingly medium and large highly electrified localities. DHS clusters that are classified as non‐urban but that fall within GRUMP extents tend to be peri‐urban areas.
    September 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00610.x   open full text
  • Economic Growth and Child Undernutrition in sub‐Saharan Africa.
    Kenneth Harttgen, Stephan Klasen, Sebastian Vollmer.
    Population and Development Review. September 11, 2013
    Despite recent improvements in economic performance, undernutrition rates in sub‐Saharan Africa appear to have improved much less and rather inconsistently across the continent. We examine to what extent there is an empirical linkage between income growth and reductions of child undernutrition in Africa. We pool all DHS surveys for African countries, control for other correlates of undernutrition, and add country‐level GDP per capita. We find that a 10 percent increase in GDP per capita is associated with 1.5 to 1.7 percent lower odds of being stunted, 2.8 to 3.0 percent lower odds of being underweight, and 3.5 to 4.0 percent lower odds of being wasted. Other drivers of undernutrition, including relative socioeconomic status and mother's education and her nutritional status, are quantitatively more important. This suggests that further increases in GDP will have only a modest impact on undernutrition and broader interventions are required to accelerate progress.
    September 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00609.x   open full text
  • China's New Demographic Reality: Learning from the 2010 Census.
    Yong Cai.
    Population and Development Review. September 11, 2013
    China conducted its sixth modern census in 2010, recording a total of 1.34 billion people. This article presents an overview of the early census results. The data are of reasonable quality but contain some apparent defects where adjustments may be required. The census confirms that China has entered the era of demographic modernity and depicts the vast transformation of the country's rural‐urban distribution. Life expectancy has risen by 3–4 years in the decade since the last census, while fertility remains well below replacement—probably as low as 1.5 births per woman—and the sex ratio at birth is still significantly elevated. Low fertility and falling old‐age mortality are leading to continued and rapid population aging. Several coastal provinces grew by as much as 40 percent in the last decade, while a number of inland provinces have recorded population decline. China has reached an overall urban proportion of 50 percent.
    September 11, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00608.x   open full text
  • Authors For This Issue.

    Population and Development Review. June 04, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    June 04, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00607.x   open full text
  • Abstracts.

    Population and Development Review. June 04, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    June 04, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00606.x   open full text
  • Productivity Growth in Global Agriculture.

    Population and Development Review. June 04, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    June 04, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00605.x   open full text
  • Jenny Trinitapoli and Alexander Weinreb: Religion and AIDS in Africa.

    Population and Development Review. June 04, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    June 04, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00604.x   open full text
  • Colin McInnes and Kelley Lee: Global Health and International Relations.

    Population and Development Review. June 04, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    June 04, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00603.x   open full text
  • Esther C. L. Goh: China's One‐Child Policy and Multiple Caregiving: Raising Little Suns in Xiamen.

    Population and Development Review. June 04, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    June 04, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00602.x   open full text
  • Gordon Conway: One Billion Hungry: Can We Feed the World?

    Population and Development Review. June 04, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    June 04, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00601.x   open full text
  • Philip Cafaro and Eileen Crist (eds.): Life on the Brink: Environmentalists Confront Overpopulation.

    Population and Development Review. June 04, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    June 04, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00600.x   open full text
  • Michael C. Crawford and Benjamin C. Campbell (eds.): Causes and Consequences of Human Migration: An Evolutionary Perspective.
    Bobbi S. Low.
    Population and Development Review. June 04, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    June 04, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00599.x   open full text
  • World Bank: World Development Report 2013: Jobs.
    Eddy Lee.
    Population and Development Review. June 04, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    June 04, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00598.x   open full text
  • Derek Bok: The Politics of Happiness: What Government Can Learn from the New Research on Well‐Being.
    Larry Willmore.
    Population and Development Review. June 04, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    June 04, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00597.x   open full text
  • Robert D. Kaplan: The Revenge of Geography: What the Map Tells Us about Coming Conflicts and the Battle against Fate.
    Eric Kaufmann.
    Population and Development Review. June 04, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    June 04, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00596.x   open full text
  • Great Leap, Great Famine: A Review Essay*.
    CormacÓ Gráda.
    Population and Development Review. June 04, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    June 04, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00595.x   open full text
  • Thomas Paine on a Plan for a Welfare State.

    Population and Development Review. June 04, 2013
    There is no abstract available for this paper.
    June 04, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00594.x   open full text
  • Demographic Changes in Myanmar since 1983: An Examination of Official Data.
    Thomas Spoorenberg.
    Population and Development Review. June 04, 2013
    According to official estimate, the total population of Myanmar reached 59.8 million in 2010. Yet, serious doubt exists on the reliability of these data. From the body of empirical evidence, best estimates of mortality and fertility are derived and serve to reconstruct prospectively the population of the country from 1983 to 2010. Despite the uncertainty regarding the levels and trends in international migration, the results are unequivocal: given the observed development in mortality and fertility, the population of Myanmar could not have reached 59.8 million in 2010. In addition to encouraging reconsideration of current population estimates, this analysis should also prompt the government and the international community to redouble their efforts in preparing for the 2014 census; carrying out a high‐quality count of the entire population, ideally followed by a post‐enumeration survey; conducting a thorough analysis of the census data; and publicly releasing the census results and accompanying analytical volumes in a timely manner.
    June 04, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00593.x   open full text
  • Cohort Abortion Measures for the United States.
    Sarah K. Cowan.
    Population and Development Review. June 04, 2013
    Demographers interested in abortion in the United States have thus far focused on cross‐sectional and synthetic cohort measures, reflecting data availability. We now have cohorts that have completed their entire reproductive years after the Roe v. Wade decision legalizing abortion nationwide. For women who are still in their childbearing years at the conclusion of data collection, I apply the Lee‐Carter forecasting technique—its first application in abortion research—to project their completed age‐specific abortion rates. Using true cohort measures reveals markedly different abortion experiences by cohort; in particular, a significant declining trend. I find stability in the distribution of abortion by abortion order and the racial composition of abortion incidences. In addition to the substantive findings, cohort measures shift the focus of quantitative abortion research from incidence rates to women's lives over their reproductive years.
    June 04, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00592.x   open full text
  • The Baby Boom and Its Causes: What We Know and What We Need to Know.
    Jan Van Bavel, David S. Reher.
    Population and Development Review. June 04, 2013
    This study analyzes the timing, magnitude, and volume of the mid‐twentieth century baby boom in European and non‐European Western countries. The baby boom is found to have been especially strong in the non‐European countries, fairly strong in some European countries, and quite weak in others. While the boom has often been linked with postwar economic growth and the recuperation of births postponed during the Depression era, we argue that this is only a limited part of the story. In most cases the recovery of the birth rate started well before the end of World War II, a fact not accounted for by existing theories. We investigate the roles played by the recovery of period as well as cohort fertility, the underlying marriage boom, and the recovery of marital fertility. We identify major puzzles for future research, including the reasons for strongly declining ages at marriage and the role played by contraceptive failure in the rise of high‐parity births.
    June 04, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00591.x   open full text
  • Family Instability and Pathways to Adulthood in Cape Town, South Africa.
    Rachel E. Goldberg.
    Population and Development Review. June 04, 2013
    Social, political, epidemiological, and economic forces have produced family instability during childhood for many young people transitioning to adulthood in South Africa. This study identifies pathways to adulthood for youth in Cape Town that capture the timing and sequencing of role transitions across the life domains of school, work, and family formation. It then uses these pathways to investigate the relationship between childhood family instability and the way young people's lives unfold during the transition to adulthood. Results indicate that changes in co‐residence with parents are associated with following less advantageous pathways into adulthood, independent of particular family structure or orphan status. Overall, the findings suggest that family instability influences not only single transitions for youth, but also combinations of transitions. They also indicate the value of a multi‐dimensional conceptualization of the transition to adulthood in empirical work.
    June 04, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00590.x   open full text
  • Surplus Chinese Men: Demographic Determinants of the Sex Ratio at Marriageable Ages in China.
    Catherine Tucker, Jennifer Van Hook.
    Population and Development Review. June 04, 2013
    We explore the demographic factors contributing to China's unbalanced sex ratio at marriagable ages. We develop a stable population model of the sex ratio at marriagable ages, and compare a series of population projections with alternative underlying assumptions about the key demographic inputs. The stable population model demonstrates that several demographic factors interact to influence the sex ratio at marriagable ages, including the sex ratio at birth, population growth, the age gap of marriage partners, and the sex ratio of survival from birth to marriageable age. The population projections further demonstrate that policies that seek to reduce the sex ratio at birth and the age gap at marriage and, to a lesser extent, increase fertility would be most effective at alleviating the problem. But no demographic changes are likely to occur quickly enough to balance the sex ratio at marriagable ages in the near future.
    June 04, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00589.x   open full text
  • The Implementation of Preferences for Male Offspring.
    John Bongaarts.
    Population and Development Review. June 04, 2013
    Over the past quarter century the sex ratio at birth (SRB) has risen above natural levels in a number of countries, mostly in Asia. This rise has been made possible in populations with strong son preference by the increasing availability of safe, effective, and inexpensive technologies to determine the sex of a fetus and to end unwanted pregnancies. This article documents levels and trends in the sex ratio at birth, in preferences for male offspring (using information on desired number of girls and boys), and in the implementation of these preferences. DHS surveys from 61 countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America and for Indian states are the main source of data. A comparison of desired with actual SRBs finds large gaps in most populations, implying a substantial pent‐up demand for male offspring and the technology to implement this preference. Two types of actions to implement preferences are considered: the practice of contraception to stop childbearing after the desired number of sons has been born and the use of sex‐selective abortion to avoid female births. The second part of the article discusses factors that could influence the SRB, including the promotion of gender equality, and the implications of these factors for future trends.
    June 04, 2013   doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00588.x   open full text