Mexico has a heterogeneous climate due to its geographical location. Half of the Mexican territory is dryland, mostly in the centre and north of the country, within which agriculture is the main activity in the primary production sector. At present, climate variability has a strong impact on Mexican agriculture. This study analysed rainfall variability, its impact on the agricultural productivity in terms of harvested quantity and productivity of 1996‐2014, and in parallel, the role that socioeconomic development plays on the well‐being of the population who live in areas with rainfed agriculture and a semi‐dry climate. The data obtained were analysed with the Statistical Analysis System. A positive correlation was found between rainfall and productivity (r = 0.76 for maize; r = 0.711 for beans). Rainfall variations therefore have a great impact on agricultural productivity, on food security and on the economy. Besides production losses, a parallel consequence is marginalization of the population because producers' income is increasingly reduced due to smaller crop volumes.