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The usefulness of past crime data as an attractiveness index for residential burglars

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Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling

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Abstract

--- - |2 Abstract This study examines the effects of neighbourhood attractiveness on the residential burglar's crime location choice process using a discrete choice model. We show that past crime data are an important index of a neighbourhood's attractiveness and can be combined with other attractiveness indices adapted from previous studies. We used data from 369 solved cases committed by 70 offenders and related these data to 1,134 areas (500 m grid cells) in Sendai City, Japan. The results showed that residential burglars were attracted to the following potential locations for crimes: (a) areas in proximity to his or her own residence; (b) areas having many or at least a higher proportion of residential burglaries in the past; (c) areas having many residential units; and (d) areas having a higher proportion of single‐family dwellings. The results confirm the validity of past crime data as an index of a neighbourhood's attractiveness for residential burglary. - 'Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling, Volume 15, Issue 3, Page 257-270, October 2018. '