Random and Systematic Error in Voting in Presidential Elections
Published online on September 18, 2012
Abstract
Condorcet’s theory of voting rests on the crucial proposition that voting errors are random and not systematic. Using Lau and Redlawsk’s voting correctly measure, I test whether voting error is systematic or random in presidential elections from 1972 to 2004. I show that errors are systematically skewed toward Republican candidates. I also show that the level of skew of incorrect voting has led to the incorrect candidate being elected in three out the last nine elections. In addition, I find that greater skew in Republican campaign spending increases skew of incorrect votes toward Republican candidates.