Taking Back Globalization: A China-United States Counterfactual Using Keynes's 1941 International Clearing Union
Review of Radical Political Economics
Published online on March 08, 2013
Abstract
Many Americans believe free trade destroyed the U.S. industrial base, and blame foreign workers for taking their jobs. During World War II, Keynes had similar misgivings about the effect of postwar free trade on Britain’s economy. Yet for Keynes, economic forces are never inevitable, and capital rather than labor was the cause of trouble. His 1941 proposal for an International Clearing Union suggested capital controls, forced creditor adjustment, and an international fiat reserve as remedies for deindustrialization. This framework channeled financing toward production rather than speculation, leading to a rising standard of living for workers. A counterfactual with balance of payments data for the United States and China since 1982 suggests his ICU would have prevented U.S. deindustrialization, while yet permitting export-led growth in China.