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Employment and the Business Cycle

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Manchester School

Published online on

Abstract

This paper investigates the differences in the cyclical dynamics in employment on non‐agricultural payroll (ENAP) and total civilian employment (TCE), and the implications for monitoring US business cycles in real time. We find that employment measures have diverged considerably around the last three recessions and subsequent recoveries. This significantly impacts identification of turning points. Models that use TCE are more in line with the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) recession dating, and deliver faster call of troughs in real time, whereas models that include ENAP series yield delays in signaling troughs, especially the most recent ones.