This study investigated the relationship between lay theories of cigarette smoking and expectations to smoke. An incremental lay theory of smoking entails the belief that smoking behavior can change; an entity theory entails the belief that smoking behavior cannot change. Undergraduate nonsmokers and smokers completed a survey that assessed lay theories of smoking and smoking expectations. Results demonstrated that lay theories of smoking were differentially associated with smoking expectations for nonsmokers and smokers: stronger incremental beliefs were associated with greater expectations of trying smoking for nonsmokers but lower expectations of becoming a regular smoker for smokers. Implications for interventions are discussed.