To examine characteristics that predict the progression from mild cognitive impairment to dementia.

Of 970 patients recruited from nine memory clinics around Australia, 185 had mild cognitive impairment diagnosed. Measures of cognitive ability, functional ability, and neuropsychiatric symptoms were completed at baseline and over 3 years of follow up.

Over 3 years, 52 (28%) patients with mild cognitive impairment developed dementia. Older age, lower cognitive ability at baseline, and faster decline in cognitive ability over the first 6 months of follow up, but not depression, predicted progression to dementia.

The findings confirm that simple clinical data such as age, cognitive ability at baseline, and rate of cognitive decline are important predictors of progression from mild cognitive impairment to dementia over 3 years.