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In the Shadow of Smolensk Catastrophe--The 2010 Presidential Election in Poland

East European Politics and Societies

Published online on

Abstract

The tragic events of 10 April 2010 became one of the most important topics of public discourse in Poland. Until today they are its central issues. This paper is an attempt to investigate one aspect of the phenomenon: the impact of the disaster and the following events on the presidential election of 2010. It is based on the results of research carried out within the Polish National Election Study (PNES) project. Due to at least three reasons, it is plausible to believe that the Smolensk catastrophe had a great impact on Polish politics. Firstly, the disaster had legal and constitutional consequences; the sudden death of the head of state always generates a number of specific actions, policy changes, and (most importantly from the perspective of this paper) determines the election calendar. Secondly, the disaster had psychological consequences; it caused a strong psychological shock for the participants of political process, which redefined political competition, public discourse, and the media coverage. Thirdly, narratives about the events preceding the crash and following it quickly became an important element of Polish politics, especially in the media and in the electoral campaign. The main finding of the paper is that the Smolensk catastrophe did not produce a fundamental change in political preferences and voting patterns of Polish citizens. At both aggregate level and individual level we observe relative stability of voter turnout patterns and voting preferences. The paper also finds that the catastrophe strengthened the existing preferences and behavior patterns, and it petrified existing divisions. This paper is a study of voting behavior in extreme situations. It analyses the unique phenomenon—voting in the huge social trauma and right after it. Thus, in addition to the idiographic objective of the paper (explanation of the voting behavior in the 2010 presidential election in Poland), it also has some nomothetic aspect, because it contributes to the theoretical discussions about voting behavior in traumatic, exceptional situations. It can become a reference point for future studies addressing the issue of electoral behavior in unexpected, unusual contexts.