Simple Identification And Specification Of Cointegrated Varma Models
Journal of Applied Econometrics
Published online on April 22, 2014
Abstract
We bring together some recent advances in the literature on vector autoregressive moving‐average models, creating a simple specification and estimation strategy for the cointegrated case. We show that in this case with fixed initial values there exists a so‐called final moving‐average representation. We prove that the specification strategy is consistent. The performance of the proposed method is investigated via a Monte Carlo study and a forecasting exercise for US interest rates. We find that our method performs well relative to alternative approaches for cointegrated series and methods which do not allow for moving‐average terms. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.