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Pricing Nikkei 225 Options Using Realized Volatility

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Japanese Economic Review

Published online on

Abstract

This article examines option pricing performance using realized volatilities with or without handling microstructure noise, non‐trading hours and large jumps. The dynamics of realized volatility is specified by ARFIMA(X) and HAR(X) models. The main results using put options on the Nikkei 225 index are that: (i) the ARFIMAX model performs best; (ii) the Hansen and Lunde (2005a) adjustment for non‐trading hours improves the performance; (iii) methods for reducing microstructure noise‐induced bias yield better performance, while if the Hansen–Lunde adjustment is used, the other methods are not necessarily needed; and (iv) the performance is unaffected by removing large jumps from realized volatility.