After 30 years of relentless expansion, the United States’ prison system faces the prospect of considerable contraction. This was certainly not expected and continues to be refuted by policy makers, activists, and academic theorists alike. Using evidence drawn from New York State, this essay argues that decarceration is taking place and may be expected to continue. Preliminary findings indicate, however, that the outcome is not likely to be the most commonly speculated ones: a return to a rehabilitative model, liberal reform along the lines of justice reinvestment, or the straightforward replacement of mass incarceration with parole and probation. Evidence to date suggests that a new and harsher criminal justice regime marked by justice disinvestment is being forged, entailing a significant shift from state penal institutions to differentiated, community-based social control, new private and non-profit actors, and new data and hardware technologies. These observations suggest a substantial rethinking of the political economy and theories of mass incarceration and the ‘carceral’ or ‘centaur’ state.