The SAVRY Improves Prediction of Reoffending: A Naturalistic Longitudinal Comparative Study
Research on Social Work Practice
Published online on October 16, 2015
Abstract
This study investigated the utility of the risk assessment "Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth" (SAVRY) within the social services in Stockholm County, Sweden.
SAVRY assessments of 56 adolescents were compared to assessments guided by another instrument (Adolescent Drug Abuse Diagnosis [ADAD]; n = 38) and assessments without support of a structured method (n = 38).
The results showed that social workers conducting SAVRY assessments documented a significantly larger number of risk and protective factors compared to the other assessments, and these factors predicted, with a few exceptions, reoffending to a larger extent. SAVRY summary risk rating significantly predicted the occurrence of serious violent crimes (area under the curve [AUC] = .80, p < .01) and less serious violence (AUC = .70, p < .05).
SAVRY performed at least as well in naturalistic settings as in previous studies conducted in more controlled environments. Furthermore, the SAVRY performed better than the other structured instrument (ADAD).