What Drives Urban Consumption in Mainland China? The Role of Property Price Dynamics
Published online on March 16, 2016
Abstract
This paper adds to the literature on wealth effects on consumption by disentangling house price effects on consumption for mainland China. In a stochastic modelling framework, the riskiness, rate of increase and persistence of house price movements have different implications for the consumption/housing ratio. We exploit the geographical variation in property prices by using a quarterly city‐level panel data set for the period 1998Q1–2009Q4 and rely on a panel error correction model. Overall, the results suggest a significant long‐run impact of property prices on consumption. They also broadly confirm the predictions from the theoretical model.