An understanding of etiological and maintaining factors of mental disorders is essential for the treatment of mental disorders, as well as mental health promotion and protection. The present study examines predictors of the incidence, remission and relapse of a wide range of Axis I mental disorders, using data from the Dresden Predictor Study. A sample of 1394 young German women completed questionnaires evaluating psychological factors (positive mental health, self‐efficacy, life satisfaction, neuroticism, psychopathology and dysfunctional attitudes) and global assessment of functioning, as well as structured diagnostic interviews assessing incidence and change (remission, relapse) in mental disorders. Predictors were analysed using a multivariate logistic regression model. Significant factors for incidence of mental disorders included neuroticism and global functioning. A remitting course of mental disorders was predicted by positive mental health, self‐efficacy and global assessment of functioning. Relapse was significantly predicted by neuroticism and dysfunctional attitudes. Results imply that mental health promotion is particularly important for women with high neuroticism and low functioning, as they tend to be at risk for incidence. Mental disorder treatment may benefit from strengthening positive mental health and functioning, as these factors promote remission. Relapse‐prevention may benefit from attention to neuroticism and dysfunctional attitudes in order to reduce the likelihood of relapse. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Key Practitioner Message Incidence of mental disorders in young women was predicted by neuroticism and low global functioning. There seems to be a need for preventive interventions addressing high neuroticism and low global functioning. Remission in young women was predicted by positive mental health. It may be helpful to include resource‐based interventions, which can strengthen or support general positive mental health. Relapse in young women was predicted by two negative psychological factors: high neuroticism and reporting many dysfunctional attitudes. Psychotherapy addressing the characteristics and behaviour of neurotic patients might be beneficial. Interventions should also focus on addressing and changing dysfunctional attitudes.