This study used observations of crime strategy meetings and interviews with police commanders to "get inside the black box of hot spots policing." The findings focus on what the studied police commanders believed they were doing and why they believed those tactics would be effective during hot spots policing implemented under non-experimental conditions. An example causal model for the effectiveness of hot spots policing that emerged from the data is presented. While the commanders’ views aligned with commonly used policing tactics and crime control theories, their underlying theoretical rationale is complex. The presented model provides one causal model that could be tested in future hot spots policing evaluations, and a discussion is presented of how the study’s methodology can be applied in other jurisdictions to define localized causal models and improve hot spot policing evaluations.