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Much Ado about Something Important: How do Exchange Rate Movements Affect Inflation?

Manchester School

Published online on

Abstract

Understanding how exchange rate movements ‘pass‐through’ to prices and inflation is critically important for monetary policy. Yet key tenets of our standard framework for analyzing this ‘pass‐through’ have recently not performed well in the UK. Instead, a new framework is needed—of incorporating the cause of the exchange rate movement when analyzing its effects. This new framework can explain why sterling's movements have had such different effects on import prices and inflation over time. It should also improve the ability of central banks to predict inflation and set monetary policy appropriately.