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Identifying potential “breakthrough” publications using refined citation analyses: Three related explorative approaches

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Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology

Published online on

Abstract

The article presents three advanced citation‐based methods used to detect potential breakthrough articles among very highly cited articles. We approach the detection of such articles from three different perspectives in order to provide different typologies of breakthrough articles. In all three cases we use the hierarchical classification of scientific publications developed at CWTS based on direct citation relationships. We assume that such contextualized articles focus on similar research interests. We utilize the characteristics scores and scales (CSS) approach to partition citation distributions and implement a specific filtering algorithm to sort out potential highly‐cited “followers,” articles not considered breakthroughs. After invoking thresholds and filtering, three methods are explored: A very exclusive one where only the highest cited article in a micro‐cluster is considered as a potential breakthrough article (M1); as well as two conceptually different methods, one that detects potential breakthrough articles among the 2% highest cited articles according to CSS (M2a), and finally a more restrictive version where, in addition to the CSS 2% filter, knowledge diffusion is also considered (M2b). The advance citation‐based methods are explored and evaluated using validated publication sets linked to different Danish funding instruments including centers of excellence.