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Assessing Regional Risks From Pandemic Influenza: A Scenario Analysis

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World Economy

Published online on

Abstract

We analyse the economic risks from two influenza pandemics that represent extremes along the virulence‐infectiousness continuum of possible pandemics: a high virulence–low infectiousness event and a low virulence–high infectiousness event. Our analysis involves linking an epidemiological model and a quarterly computable general equilibrium model. We find that global economic activity is more strongly affected by a pandemic with high infection rates rather than high virulence rates, all else being equal. Regions with a higher degree of economic integration with the world economy face greater risks of negative effects than less integrated regions.