Aim Subjective memory complaints scales are expected to be useful for the prediction of future cognitive decline. In Japan, the “Kihon Checklist‐Cognitive Function” (KCL‐CF), which consists of three items, is used for primary screening of high‐risk older adults. However, the predictive validity of the KCL‐CF remains unknown. The aim of the present cohort study was to examine whether the KCL‐CF can predict the incidence of dementia. Methods Information on the KCL‐CF score (0–3 points) was collected from community‐dwelling older adults (≥65 years) through a questionnaire. Data on incident dementia were retrieved from the Long‐term Care Insurance database. The Cox model and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis were used. Results Among 13 974 participants, the 5.7‐year rate of incident dementia was 8.8%. All KCL‐CF items significantly predicted the risk of incident dementia even after adjustment for age and sex (P‐trend < 0.0001). A higher KCL‐CF score was associated with a higher risk of dementia; the age‐ and sex‐adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) were 1.00 (reference) for a KCL‐CF score of 0 points, 1.89 (1.65–2.15) for 1 point, 3.01 (2.59–3.50) for 2 points, and 6.20 (4.87–7.90) for 3 points (P‐trend < 0.0001). A cut‐off score of ≥1 points had a specificity of 65.1% and a sensitivity of 60.2%, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.65 (95% confidence interval 0.63–0.66). Conclusions The KCL‐CF was able to predict incident dementia. However, because a false‐negativity rate of approximately 40% would be expected, the KCL‐CF score alone might not be sufficient for screening of dementia incidence. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2017; 17: 1300–1305.