Aim Little is known about the relationship between near falls and substantial falls in older adults. Clarifying this relationship would be helpful to assess fall risk in greater detail. The purpose of the present study was to clarify whether near falls predict future falls. Methods This was designed to be a prospective cohort study. Participants were recruited from a community apartment for older adults. After a baseline physical assessment, participants were asked to record the incidence of near falls in a diary for 3 months. After the survey period, participants were followed for 6 months by telephone contact every 2 months. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to analyze the association between near falls and falls. Results A total of 60 participants were included in the analysis. During the initial 3 months, 23 participants (38%) experienced near falls. Eight participants (13%) experienced substantial falls during the following 6 months. Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for age, body mass index, sex and physical frailty showed that experience of near falls (hazards regression 6.0, 95% confidence intervals 1.1–31.7; P < 0.05) was significantly associated with incidence of future falls. Conclusions Experience of near falls among older adults is an independent predictor of substantial falls irrespective of the physical frailty status. Clinicians might need to focus on near falls to appropriately assess the fall risk in older adults. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2016; ••: ••–••.