Inference on Self‐Exciting Jumps in Prices and Volatility Using High‐Frequency Measures
Journal of Applied Econometrics
Published online on November 04, 2016
Abstract
Dynamic jumps in the price and volatility of an asset are modelled using a joint Hawkes process in conjunction with a bivariate jump diffusion. A state‐space representation is used to link observed returns, plus nonparametric measures of integrated volatility and price jumps, to the specified model components, with Bayesian inference conducted using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. An evaluation of marginal likelihoods for the proposed model relative to a large number of alternative models, including some that have featured in the literature, is provided. An extensive empirical investigation is undertaken using data on the S&P 500 market index over the 1996–2014 period, with substantial support for dynamic jump intensities—including in terms of predictive accuracy—documented. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.