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The Role of Skill Versus Luck in Poker Evidence From the World Series of Poker

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Journal of Sports Economics

Published online on

Abstract

In determining the legality of online poker—a multibillion dollar industry—courts have relied heavily on the issue of whether or not poker is a game of skill. Using newly available data, the authors analyze that question by examining the performance in the 2010 World Series of Poker of a group of poker players identified as being highly skilled prior to the start of the events. Those players identified a priori as being highly skilled achieved an average return on investment of over 30%, compared to a -15% for all other players. This large gap in returns is strong evidence in support of the idea that poker is a game of skill.