Redemption scholars estimate that after an average of 7-10 years pass without a new arrest or conviction, a person’s criminal record essentially loses its predictive value. This article provides the first labor market and recidivism estimates of implementing a criminal background check decision guideline based on this redemption research.

The sample consists of provisionally hired job applicants in New York State’s healthcare industry with at least one prior conviction. A "10 years since last conviction" guideline situated within a highly formalized criminal background check process plausibly creates conditional random variation in clearance decisions, which allows for a regression model to estimate causal effects.

Individuals cleared to work because of the 10-year guideline experience meaningful improvements in employment and earnings, but not recidivism on average. However, men do experience reductions in subsequent arrests, which appears to be driven by more complex factors beyond simply time since last arrest.

For some individuals, receiving clearance to work even a decade after their last conviction can have not only labor market benefits, but also important recidivism implications. Future research should explore the employment opportunity/recidivism trade-off in adjusting guideline threshold values and consider alternative redemption strategies.