What Types of Policy Uncertainties Matter for Business?
Published online on December 21, 2016
Abstract
This paper reports data from the author's original survey of Japanese companies concerning the distributions on subjective uncertainties over economic policies and their effects on business operations. Companies perceive uncertainty over the future course of certain economic policies, such as the social security system and international trade policy. Policy uncertainty regarding the tax system, trade policy and environmental policy can have substantial effects on managerial decisions, especially on equipment investment and overseas activities. According to the companies’ subjective probability distributions on their sales outlook, manufacturers face greater uncertainty than non‐manufacturing companies do. Uncertainty over economic policies substantially reduces the expected sales growth rate.