The ever‐increasing population in cities intensifies environmental pollution that increases the number of asthmatic patients. Other factors that may influence the prevalence of asthma are atmospheric parameters, physiographic elements and personal characteristics. These parameters can be incorporated into a model to monitor and predict the health conditions of asthmatic patients in various contexts. Such a model is the base for any asthma early warning system. This article introduces a novel ubiquitous health system to monitor asthmatic patients. Ubiquitous systems can be effective in monitoring asthmatic patients through the use of intelligent frameworks. They can provide powerful reasoning and prediction engines for analyzing various situations. Our proposed model encapsulates several tools for preprocessing, reasoning and prediction of asthma conditions. In the preprocessing phase, outliers in the atmospheric datasets were detected and missing sensor data were estimated using a Kalman filter, while in the reasoning phase, the required information was inferred from the raw data using some rule‐based inference techniques. The asthmatic conditions of patients were predicted accurately by a Graph‐Based Support Vector Machine in a Context Space (GBSVMCS) which functions anywhere, anytime and with any status. GBSVMCS is an improved version of the common Support Vector Machine algorithm with the addition of unlabeled data and graph‐based rules in a context space. Based on the stored value for a patient's condition and his/her location/time, asthmatic patients can be monitored and appropriate alerts will be given. Our proposed model was assessed in Region 3 of Tehran, Iran for monitoring three different types of asthma: allergic, occupational and seasonal asthma. The input data to our system included air pollution data, the patients’ personal information, patients’ locations, weather data and geographical information for 270 different situations. Our results showed that 90% of the system's predictions were correct. The proposed model also improved the estimation accuracy by 15% in comparison to conventional methods.