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Are ICTs Democratizing Dictatorships? New Media and Mass Mobilization*

Social Science Quarterly

Published online on

Abstract

Objective This article evaluates the relationship between the degree of access to information and communication technologies (ICTs) and the extent of anti‐government protests and riots, accounting for the effects of past protest on subsequent ICT access, and examines direct and indirect effects of ICT diffusion on political change. Method Using a cross‐national time‐series data set from 1995 through 2014, the article employs simultaneous equations using the GSEM function in Stata to assess these relationships. Results The results indicate that ICT access at time t is conditioned on the number of anti‐regime mass actions four and five years earlier. They also show greater ICT access corresponds with more contemporaneous anti‐government mass actions. Conclusions The effect of ICT diffusion on political change occurs indirectly through its effect on mass actions, but may lead to either political retrogression or liberalization. ICT diffusions’ direct effect sustains the political status quo. The conclusion that ICTs serve as liberation technology remains ambiguous.