Measuring the Dark Figure of Crime in Geographic Areas: Small Area Estimation from the Crime Survey for England and Wales

Published online on October 16, 2020

Abstract

For decades, criminologists have been aware of the severe consequences of the dark figure of police records for crime prevention strategies. Crime surveys are developed to address the limitations of police statistics as crime data sources, and estimates produced from surveys can mitigate biases in police data. This paper produces small area estimates of crimes unknown to the police at local and neighbourhood levels from the Crime Survey for England and Wales to explore the geographical inequality of the dark figure of crime. The dark figure of crime is larger not only in small cities that are deprived but also in wealthy municipalities. The dark figure is also larger in suburban, low-housing neighbourhoods with large concentrations of unqualified citizens, immigrants and non-Asian minorities.