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Did Covid‐19 Kill Trump Politically? The Pandemic and Voting in the 2020 Presidential Election

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Social Science Quarterly

Published online on

Abstract

["Social Science Quarterly, Volume 102, Issue 5, Page 2194-2209, September 2021. ", "\n\nObjective\nThis article investigates the impact of public reactions to the Covid‐19 panemic on voting for former President Donald Trump in the 2020 American presidential election.\n\n\nMethods\nThe impact of the pandemic on voting is assessed by multivariate statistical analyses of representative national survey data gathered before and after the 2020 presidential election.\n\n\nResults\nAnalyses show that voters reacted very negatively to Trump's handling of the pandemic. Controlling for several other relevant factors, these reactions affected voting for Trump and exerted a significant impact on the election outcome.\n\n\nConclusion\nBefore the onset of Covid‐19 Trump had a very narrow path to victory in 2020, and the pandemic did much to ensure his defeat.\n\n"]