Objectives This article examines whether voters look to the past or the future when forming their perceptions of the parties’ chances of winning. Methods We use OLS regression models to analyze panel survey data from the districts where the incumbent was defeated in the 2011 provincial election in Ontario (Canada). Results We find that voters’ expectations in the districts are mainly affected by the results of the upcoming election and not by the outcome of the previous election. We also find that expectations are influenced by the phenomenon of wishful thinking. Conclusions This study sheds light on how voters form their perceptions of the parties’ chances of winning.