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Spillover Effects of Australia's Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks on the Philippine Stock Market: An SVAR Approach

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Asian-Pacific Economic Literature

Published online on

Abstract

["Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, EarlyView. ", "\nABSTRACT\nAustralia is one of the Philippines' largest trade and investment partners, with bilateral ties set to expand. Monetary policy implemented in Australia is, therefore, likely to spill over to the Philippine economy. In order to explore these linkages, we use factor analysis to build a monetary policy index for Australia and distinguish between conventional and unconventional policy. We then feed these indicators together with a set of macroeconomic variables for the Philippines into a structural vector autoregression model. Results from impulse‐response functions show that a positive shock to conventional monetary policy in Australia is associated with a quick response of industrial production, monetary policy, money supply and stock prices in the Philippines. By contrast, the transmission of shocks to unconventional monetary policy is rather different. The response of the monetary policy rate and stock prices in the Philippines is, in this case, more muted and much slower than for a conventional policy shock. The low magnitude of the responses overall suggests relatively weak linkages between Australia's monetary policy and the Philippine macro‐financial variables.\n"]