Resilience of Agricultural Trade During the US‐China Trade War: The Role of Product and Geographical Diversification
Published online on April 17, 2026
Abstract
["The Geographical Journal, Volume 192, Issue 2, June 2026. ", "\nShort Abstract\nGlobal trade shocks, such as the US‐China trade war, challenge the resilience of agricultural exports. Based on customs data from 2019 to 2022, this study finds that diversifying both products and trade partners helps China's agricultural trade recover faster. Product diversification ensures long‐term stability, while partner diversification strengthens short‐term resilience, offering strategic insights for trade policy.\n\nABSTRACT\nGlobal shocks often destabilise international trade, and the current tensions in US‐China trade relations exemplify this challenge. This study analyses China's customs data during 2019–2022 to identify optimal strategies to help Chinese agricultural products recover faster. The findings reveal that both product and geographical diversification significantly enhance the resilience of China's agricultural trade under trade war pressures, especially for China's eastern regions. While geographical diversification bolsters short‐term resilience, product diversification is key to long‐term trade stability. Furthermore, the positive impact of product diversification is mainly attributed to the weak relatedness among products, whereas geographical diversification benefits from the strong linkages among China's trading partners. These results highlight the critical role of such diversification in maintaining trade stability during the ongoing US‐China trade war and offer valuable insights for formulating agricultural trade strategies.\n"]