The Underreported Death Toll of Wars: A Probabilistic Reassessment From a Survey with UCDP Coders

Paola Vesco, David Randahl, Håvard Hegre, Stina Högbladh, Mert Can Yilmaz, Peace Research Institute Oslo , Department of War Studies, Swedish Defense University, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Journal of Conflict Resolution

Published online on April 07, 2026

Abstract

Journal of Conflict Resolution, Volume 70, Issue 7-8, Page 1499-1521, August-September 2026.
Event datasets, such as those provided by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), provide high-quality data on conflict fatalities. However, such data are likely to suffer from an unknown extent of bias and uncertainties in the reports they are based ...