A DTW-STIRPAT-Monte Carlo model for carbon emission prediction and dual-carbon pathway in Chongqing

Dian Xu, Mengzhen Zhang, Xinyu Cao, Chuanqi Qi, Yannuo Liu, Fei Yi, School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Chongqing University of Science and Technology, Infrastructure Department, Chongqing University of Science and Technology

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part A: Journal of Power and Energy

Published online on January 25, 2026

Abstract

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part A: Journal of Power and Energy, Ahead of Print.
Under China’s dual-carbon goals, accurately predicting regional carbon emission trajectories and identifying key drivers are essential for differentiated mitigation policies. This study develops a hybrid DTW–STIRPAT–Monte Carlo model for Chongqing, a ...