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Bayesian modeling of expert elicitation in human reliability analysis: Theoretical foundations and model development

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Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability

Published online on

Abstract

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability, Volume 240, Issue 2, Page 472-494, April 2026.
Human reliability analysis (HRA) examines human errors or human failure events (HFEs) and their probabilities (Human Error Probabilities, HEPs) under specific task conditions using various models. Given the scarcity of empirical data, expert judgments ...