Electoral Forecasting in Volatile Party System Settings: Assessing and Improving Pre-Election Poll Predictions in Italy
Social Science Computer Review
Published online on March 24, 2025
Abstract
Social Science Computer Review, Volume 44, Issue 4, Page 595-616, August 2026.
This study examines electoral forecasting in volatile party systems, focusing on factors contributing to deviations between poll predictions and actual election outcomes. Using Italy as a case study, it identifies biases in polling data and proposes a ...
This study examines electoral forecasting in volatile party systems, focusing on factors contributing to deviations between poll predictions and actual election outcomes. Using Italy as a case study, it identifies biases in polling data and proposes a ...