Evaluating the impact of New York’s bail reform on recidivism: a difference-in-differences study
Journal of Experimental Criminology
Published online on May 16, 2026
Abstract
{"__content__"=>"\n Objectives \n \n \n Methods\n \n \n Results\n \n \n Conclusions\n \n ", "p"=>[{"__content__"=>"From January to June 2020, New York’s initial bail reform law eliminated money bail and pretrial detention for certain offense types. This study examines the reform’s impact on pretrial recidivism."}, {"__content__"=>"Exploiting the reform’s simple, offense-based eligibility rules, we employ a difference-in-differences (DiD) design to estimate effects on multiple pretrial recidivism measures: any re-arrest, felony re-arrest, and violent felony re-arrest. Analyses are conducted for the full sample and a high-risk subgroup with recent criminal history."}, {"__content__"=>"In the full sample, we find a small but statistically significant increase in any re-arrest. Among high-risk defendants, increases are larger and observed across all recidivism measures. "}, {"__content__"=>"Restricting bail and pretrial detention based on offense type alone is associated with increased recidivism, particularly among individuals with recent criminal activity. These findings suggest bail reforms may benefit from preserving judicial discretion to consider recent history or from expanding pretrial supervision and support for higher-risk individuals."}]}