Joint Inference for the Regression Discontinuity Effect and Its External Validity
Journal of Applied Econometrics
Published online on May 18, 2026
Abstract
["Journal of Applied Econometrics, EarlyView. ", "\nABSTRACT\nThe external validity of regression discontinuity designs is crucial for informing policy but is rarely examined in applied work. To advance empirical practice, we propose a joint inference procedure for the treatment effect and its local external validity, captured by the treatment effect derivative (TED), within a robust bias correction framework. We further introduce a locally linear treatment effects assumption, which extends the scope of the TED and enables identification and the construction of a uniform confidence band for extrapolated effects. These methods apply to most empirical studies. Empirical illustrations demonstrate their practical usefulness.\n"]