Predicting the future from fear: An RI‐CLPM analysis of risk appraisals and long‐term psychological well‐being
Applied Psychology Health and Well-Being
Published online on June 12, 2026
Abstract
["Applied Psychology: Health and Well-Being, Volume 18, Issue 3, June 2026. ", "\nAbstract\nRisk perceptions involving estimates of whether negative events would occur are theorized to be linked to psychological well‐being, although there is inconsistent evidence on whether well‐being leads to reduced risk perceptions or if risk perceptions lead to reduced well‐being. We clarify this using a longitudinal, random‐intercepts cross‐lagged panel modeling (RI‐CLPM) approach. Specifically, we examined the inter‐relationship between risk perceptions and psychological well‐being across four waves of data (2014–2020) from the Understanding America Study (UAS; N = 7,289). Neuroticism, age, gender, education, income, and race were adjusted for. Results indicated that between‐person differences in risk perception covaried with lower psychological well‐being (r = −0.49, p < .001). Importantly, within‐person increases in risk perception were associated with lower psychological well‐being at the subsequent wave (βs = −0.07 to −.06, ps < .007), whereas psychological well‐being was not linked to future risk perceptions. These findings support a unidirectional association of risk appraisals with lower subsequent psychological well‐being.\n"]