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Reconfiguring Fresh Produce Supply Chains in Response to Drought Risk: Evidence From the U.S. Broccoli Market

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Agribusiness

Published online on

Abstract

["Agribusiness, EarlyView. ", "\nABSTRACT\nDrought is among the most severe and persistent threats to food supply chains, and relocating production to less drought‐prone regions offers a strategy to reduce this risk. This is particularly relevant for fresh vegetables, which are highly water‐intensive, yet drought‐driven reconfiguration strategies remain understudied. We focus on the U.S. fresh broccoli supply chain, where demand is rising nationally, but production remains centralized in California, a state facing frequent droughts. Meanwhile, emerging Eastern U.S. regions present opportunities for expansion. We evaluate optimal reconfigurations for this fresh produce by modeling relocation strategies in response to seasonal drought risks. Using a production‐transportation optimization model, we evaluate two drought scenarios across four production seasons. We identify optimal expansion opportunities in 10 Eastern states and quantify relevance on supply chain costs, market share, and food miles. Results show strong seasonal heterogeneity. Under severe drought, reallocating production from California to the East Coast reduces annual supply‐chain costs by 1.5% and lowers transport distances in the Eastern market by around 20%. Our findings contribute to the literature on sustainable food supply chains under climatic shocks and provide insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders on seasonal adaptation strategies to mitigate shortages while improving cost‐effectiveness and sustainability.\n"]