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Regularization of Synthetic Controls for Policy Evaluation

Journal of Applied Econometrics

Published online on

Abstract

["Journal of Applied Econometrics, EarlyView. ", "\nABSTRACT\nWe propose a unified framework for interpreting and comparing a broad class of synthetic control (SC) methods. Our framework is built on an analysis of a mean‐squared prediction error (MSPE) bound for the counterfactual predicted by a generic SC method, without imposing a specific outcome model. Using this framework, we develop a generalized SC method that provides a more comprehensive regularization of the MSPE bound than several existing SC methods. Through simulation studies and placebo analyses, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in predicting the counterfactual.\n"]