Regularization of Synthetic Controls for Policy Evaluation
Journal of Applied Econometrics
Published online on May 27, 2026
Abstract
["Journal of Applied Econometrics, EarlyView. ", "\nABSTRACT\nWe propose a unified framework for interpreting and comparing a broad class of synthetic control (SC) methods. Our framework is built on an analysis of a mean‐squared prediction error (MSPE) bound for the counterfactual predicted by a generic SC method, without imposing a specific outcome model. Using this framework, we develop a generalized SC method that provides a more comprehensive regularization of the MSPE bound than several existing SC methods. Through simulation studies and placebo analyses, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in predicting the counterfactual.\n"]