["Review of International Economics, EarlyView. ", "\nABSTRACT\nWe quantify the economic impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy using data on historical geopolitical events. Employing a structural VAR approach based on zero, sign, and narrative sign restrictions, and accounting for regional shocks to capture country‐specific effects, our analysis reveals a drag on real economic activity and a significant increase in inflation due to the war. In a counterfactual scenario without the invasion, we find that consumer prices in European countries would have been 2.3% to 5.8% lower in 2023‐Q4. Additionally, global consumer prices would have risen 2.5% less, and energy prices would have been 24% lower. The war also triggered a significant decline in both global and local economic sentiment, resulting in lower consumer confidence and reduced global demand. Without the war, GDP in European countries could have been between 1.4% and 2.4% higher by the end of 2023.\n"]