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The Evolution of the Earnings Distribution in a Sustained Growth Economy: Evidence from Australia

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Economic Record

Published online on

Abstract

["Economic Record, EarlyView. ", "\nWe examine the evolution of earnings inequality, risk and mobility in Australia from 1991 to 2020 using a 10 per cent sample of administrative tax records from the ALife dataset. Our main findings are summarised as follows. First, earnings inequality follows a distinctive trajectory: top‐end inequality increased during the 1990s and 2000s but declined in the 2010s, diverging from the rising trends documented for several other advanced economies. Second, earnings dynamics differ sharply by gender. Within‐group inequality compressed among women—driven by sustained gains at the lower end of the distribution—while inequality expanded among men, particularly reflecting weaker growth among low earnings quantiles. Third, cohort‐level evidence indicates a shift in the sources of lifetime inequality, with early career disparities accounting for a larger share of within‐cohort dispersion among younger cohorts. We further show that earnings risk is asymmetric and cyclical, with higher downside volatility for women and during economic slowdowns, while intragenerational mobility remains high by international standards. Finally, taxes and transfers substantially reduce inequality and income instability at the bottom of the distribution. These findings provide new evidence on the evolution of earnings dynamics in a sustained growth economy with strong fiscal redistribution.\n"]