The paper proposes to understand social time through the lens of two different multidimensional grids, one focused on the experience of time and therefore grounded in present perceptions and one focused on the interactions between the three temporal modes of past, present, and future.
This article presents a case study of futures studies in Hungary. There had been two stages of development: the first had seen the vertical deepening and horizontal expansion of the field, whereas the second can be described as theoretical and methodological renewal as well as broadening relationships to the practice. International impacts and linkages have been important throughout, but local contextual factors and specific opportunities also played their role to place Hungarian futures studies on the global map of the discipline.
Forestry and forest products research has entered into a robust research agenda focused on creating nano-sized particles and nanoproducts from wood. As wood-based materials can be sustainably produced, the potential of these renewable products could be limitless and include high-end compostable electronics, paint-on solar panels, and lightweight materials for airplanes and cars. Others warn about potential serious negative health and environmental consequences. Either way, wood-based nanomaterials could disrupt forestry as we know it. This article is a summary and analysis of a collaborative research project exploring the futures of wood-based nanomaterials within the context of the futures of forests and forest management within the United States. We start by describing the history of forestry through the lens of the U.S. Forest Service, then describe nanotechnology in general and wood-based nanocellulose specifically. Next, we outline the Manoa School alternative futures method, and how we used it to design and carry out a "complete futures of x" project. Following the Manoa School approach, we describe four alternative futures for forestry and forest management. We conclude with implications for the future of forestry, forests, and forest-based nanomaterials, as well as a discussion on the implementation of a complete "futures of x" project.
The writer takes the position that futures studies should lead the way in teaching image literacy and shares experiences and examples from her work teaching futures studies at the undergraduate level at San Diego City College. The essay focuses on future workshops, in which participants work on the creation of their preferred futures image, and their impact in the college classroom.
This article discusses sociological approaches to the study of social movements and assesses their relevance for futures research. Older theories of collective behavior viewed mass protest as result of structural strains or collapse of order. Revolutions were seen as an inevitable result of social disenfranchisement. More recent theories argued that deprivation exists often without the occurrence of any upheavals and stressed the importance of resource mobilization, political opportunities, collective identity, common goals, and transhistorical struggle for recognition. Although each of the different approaches has its problems, combined they are providing a valuable resource for a reconceptualization of futures research.
The Global Brain is a leading hypothesis explaining the current evolution of the human system. Recent multidisciplinary research at the Global Brain Institute has laid a potential framework for thinking about the future of human society within the context of the emergence of a global brain this century. In this article, I outline the theory of challenge propagation and explain how this theory can help us formulate an empirical understanding of the future of individual and collective human experience with a global brain. This includes a prescriptive and predictive analysis of the future of governance and religion. The article invites discussion as well as critical and constructive feedback as its sole purpose is to stimulate a decentralized discussion that will help us all better understand the future of human organization in the twenty-first century.
The Kyoto multilateral negotiations provide a template for global negotiation. What is at stake is the survival of humanity and major global economic restructuring is needed for that. The Kyoto targets were not nearly ambitious enough, and without restructuring national economies, most forecasts suggest the world will be doing too little and too late. Current generations should make possible "looking backward" with pride in humanity’s collective contributions. This essay contributes to a needed debate.
Much of the policy focus since the onset of the Great Recession in 2008 has been based upon a return of the global economy to "business-as-usual." It is assumed that it is both possible and desirable to return to the pre-recession trajectory of the global economy, despite such a growth path leading to an imbalanced global economy that was neither sustainable from an environmental perspective nor equitable from the perspective of supporting a fair society. Policy makers have failed in this objective. It may be that governments have simply been unsuccessful. It is also possible that the structural components of the global economy have changed in such a way that a return to the pre-recession growth path is not possible. This article is an investigation into this possibility. It will consider three elements—debt, technology, and demography—that argue that we have entered a sustained period of sluggish economic growth by asking three core questions: (1) Will the rebalancing of the global economy undermine the ability of economies to restore prosperity? (2) Have the long-term trends in innovation reached a moment of pause, to delay future growth prospects? (3) Are the demographic trends facing the world likely to act as a brake upon future economic growth? We then ask the question of whether or not this is entirely undesirable before taking the view that it provides a good opportunity to switch into a low carbon, low-growth economy if the fundamental issues of inequality and fairness can be addressed. If we are to have a prolonged period of subdued prosperity, then that affords us an opportunity to devise a structure that is both kind to the planet and equitable to its inhabitants. To misquote Churchill, it would be a shame to let a perfectly good recession go to waste.
Science fiction narratives are regularly used to explore the consequences of contemporary and envisaged future scientific innovations along with the ensuing novel ethical and moral concepts. The television series Star Trek has dealt with aspects of reproductive health, often based on extrapolations from significant real-world breakthroughs in artificial reproductive technology and genetic engineering. This article assesses episodes that addressed such vexing ethical questions as choices affecting pregnancy after rape, advances in obstetrics including surrogate motherhood, and novel delivery techniques designed to protect the health of the mother and baby. However, the most significant ethical challenges may be those involving choices of deliberate genetic enhancements and/or frank physical alterations in non-life-threatening situations. The authors argue that responsible use of the popular science fiction genre, as exemplified by the various Star Trek series, cannot only provide advanced warning of problems and issues that science may eventually unleash but also suggest potential solutions to such problems.